Análise e Controle Ótimo da COVID-19 no Brasil usando Modelo Epidemiológico SI Intervalar

ABSTRACT

The objective of this paper is to provide possible scenarios for the evolution of Coronavirus Disease-19 (COVID-19) from the application of optimal control strategies. Provided that data on the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) are fraught of uncertainty or even lack of information, interval mathematical models are feasible for the study of epidemiological models related to COVID-19. Thus, the interval SI epidemiological model and the corresponding interval optimal control problem were proposed. The solution of the interval optimal control problem illustrates pessimistic and optimistic scenarios for the evolution of the pandemic in Brazil. Two decision-making criterias under uncertainty have been considered and they can assist the decision making process by public health workers. Both criterias take into account costs associated with the decision-making.

Keywords:
COVID-19; interval SI epidemiological model; interval optimal control problem; constrained interval arithmetic; decision-making