What are the effects of attempts at reelection on electoral competition? We have tested the assumption that attempts at reelection have a positive and significant effect on electoral competition. We measured electoral competition using two indicators: Imbalance index T (Taagepera) and generalized concentration index (Herfindahl-Hirscham (HH)). We analyzed data on the seven last Brazilian national elections (1990-2014). We employed descriptive (variable measures and times series) and inferential statistics (regression analysis with panel data). Our main findings: 01. the percentage and the concentration of incumbents has a significant and negative effect on the concentration of votes; 02. the interaction between the percentage of incumbents in a given dispute and in a coalition has a significant and positive effect on the concentration of votes.

Abstract What is the effect of the types of over-vote spending on campaigns for municipal mayors? The objective of this article is to analyze how the types of electoral campaign expenditures made by candidates for mayors of Brazilian municipalities in 2008, 2012 and 2016 contribute to the winning of votes. Theoretically, this research contributes to the still scarce literature that tries to analyze how different forms of expenditure of campaigns for mayor in Brazil can be used as explicative variables. Methodologically, we used descriptive statistics and an inferential model to test the hypothesis that campaign expenditures in the Advertising / Propaganda dimension have a positive and significant effect on the probability of winning votes, as the number of voters increases in the municipality. We systematized a database based on information collected on the website of the Superior Electoral Court (TSE). Preliminary results indicate that (1) in the years analyzed, advertising spending presented the highest average; (2) expenses with the dimension Structure has an effect on voting in smaller cities; (3) Finally, the larger the electoral college, the greater the effect of spending on the Strategy dimension on the conquest of votes.

Resumo Qual o efeito dos tipos de gastos de sobre votos em campanhas para prefeitos municipais? O objetivo desse artigo é analisar como os tipos de gastos das campanhas eleitorais realizados pelos candidatos a prefeitos dos municípios brasileiros, nos anos de 2008, 2012 e 2016, contribuem para a conquista de votos. Teoricamente, essa pesquisa contribui com a literatura, ainda escassa, que tenta analisar como diferentes formas de gastos de campanhas para prefeito no Brasil podem ser usadas como variáveis explicativas. Metodologicamente utilizamos estatística descritiva e um modelo inferencial para testar a hipótese de que gastos de campanhas na dimensão Estratégia tem um efeito positivo e significativo sobre a probabilidade de conquista de votos, à medida que aumenta o número de eleitores no município. Sistematizamos um banco de dados a partir de informações coletadas no sítio eletrônico do Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE). Os resultados preliminares indicam que que (1) nos anos analisados, os gastos com Publicidade apresentaram a maior média; (2) gastos com a dimensão Estrutura tem maior efeito sobre sobre voto em cidades menores; (3) por fim, quanto maior o colégio eleitoral, maior o efeito do gasto na dimensão Estratégia sobre a conquista de votos.

Resumo Quais são as vantagens da triangulação metodológica? Apesar de ser consensual a importância da combinação de técnicas quantitativas e qualitativas, ainda são raros os trabalhos que efetivamente utilizam uma abordagem multimétodo. Este artigo apresenta uma introdução aos métodos mistos. Nosso público alvo são estudantes de graduação e pós-graduação em estágios iniciais de treinamento. Metodologicamente, sintetizamos as principais recomendações da literatura e utilizamos dois exemplos para ilustrar como a combinação de técnicas pode ser empregada em desenhos de pesquisa empíricos. Com este artigo, esperamos difundir a utilização de métodos mistos nas Ciências Sociais brasileiras1.

Abstract What are the advantages of methodological triangulation? Although there is a general consent about the importance of mixing quantitative and qualitative methods, studies that effectively use multi method approach are still rare. This article provides an introduction to mixed methods. Our target audience is both undergraduate and graduate students in early stages of training. Methodologically, we will summarize the main recommendations in the literature and use two examples to show how mixed methods can be applied to empirical research designs. With this paper we hope to diffuse the utilization of mixed methods in Brazilian Social Sciences.

O objetivo deste trabalho é criar um indicador de fracasso do Estado. A metodologia combina estatística descritiva e multivariada para analisar as bases de dados do Quality of Government Institute e do Earth Policy Institute. Os resultados sugerem que: (1) comparativamente, a independência do judiciário é a variável que menos contribui para a criação do indicador de fracasso estatal; (2) a análise de clusters classificou 17 países como Estados colapsados, sendo a Somália o caso mais extremo; e (3) tanto a fragmentação étnica quanto o desenvolvimento económico desigual variam de forma estatisticamente significativa entre os clusters.

This article seeks to create a State failure indicator. The methodology combines descriptive and multivariate statistics to analyze the databases Quality of Government Institute and the Earth Policy Institute. The results suggest that: (1) the independence of the judiciary is the variable that contributes the least to the creation of a State failure indicator; (2) cluster analysis classified 17 countries as collapsed states, Somalia is the most extreme case; and (3) ethnic fragmentation and uneven economic development show statistically significant variation between clusters.

What is the impact of small parties on electoral outcomes? This articles aims at contributing to the literature on party systems by proposing a new method to classify political parties. The methodology is applied to Brazil by focusing on the description of the election results of small parties. Cluster analysis is employed to classify political party size based on their percentage of votes in the Brazilian states. The main findings indicate that classifying parties through cluster analysis is more objective than previous classifications. As a result of this method, the article shows that small parties exert little effect on electoral volatility in Brazil as well as small parties benefit less from the disproportionality between votes and seats than the larger ones.

The article provides a non-technical introduction to the p value statistics. Its main purpose is to help researchers make sense of the appropriate role of the p value statistics in empirical political science research. On methodological grounds, we use replication, simulations and observational data to show when statistical significance is not significant. We argue that: (1) scholars must always graphically analyze their data before interpreting the p value; (2) it is pointless to estimate the p value for non-random samples; (3) the p value is highly affected by the sample size, and (4) it is pointless to estimate the p value when dealing with data on population.