Abstract The pedigree analysis from genealogical data can estimate the inbreeding from identity-by-descent, being a powerful tool for germplasm characterization. The aim of this study was to evaluate the genetic diversity of peach and nectarine cultivars from the Agronomic Institute Prunus germplasm. This assessment was based on inbreeding and coancestry coefficients, considering two cases according to the origin of pollen donor in open pollinations: case I as self-pollinated, and case II as outcrossing. This study provided information regarding the founder cultivars. The historical investigation of the genealogy of 84 cultivars returned up to eight generations. Thirty-one founder cultivars were identified. The inbreeding coefficient of 40 (case I) and 14 (case II) for the cultivars were higher than expected, evidencing some degree of inbreeding. However, the averages for the coancestry coefficients were low (case I: 0.144; case II: 0.087), indicating genetic variability among the cultivars, which may be used in breeding programs.

ABSTRACT The frequency of extreme weather events has increased in almost all regions of the world. In this context, it is vital to understand how the location, scale, and shape of their frequency distributions are changing over time. This study used the flexibility of neural networks to model changes in the probability of daily extremes of maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) air temperature data in Campinas, Brazil — one of South America’s longest meteorological records spanning from 1890 to 2022. Based on the Extremal Types Theorem, we employed a conditional density network to model the parameters of the generalized extreme value distribution (GEV-CDN) as functions of time. Our findings indicate that a GEV-based model, where the location and scale parameters vary over time, best described the variations in the Tmin series. However, a GEV-based model with only the location parameter varying over time best described the variations in the Tmax series. From an agrometeorological perspective, these results suggest that the probability of Tmax values leading to crop failures is rapidly increasing. The findings indicate a decrease in the probability of agronomic frost events in Campinas over the past 133 years, but the rate of this decrease has slowed in recent years. This result, combined with the negative value of the GEV’s shape parameter, suggests that it is unlikely that Campinas may become an agronomic-frost-free region. To facilitate visualization of the changes in the probability of Tmax and Tmin values from 1890 to 2022, we have developed an internet application available at https://climatology-iac.shinyapps.io/Shinny/.

Resumo Este estudo objetivou avaliar o uso dos dados provenientes do Climatic Research Unit (CRU) e do 5th Generation of European ReAnalysis (ERA5) para o monitoramento da seca no estado de São Paulo por meio do índice de Precipitação Padronizado (SPI) e do índice de Precipitação e Evapotranspiração Padronizado (SPEI). Foram utilizados dados de precipitação mensal (P) para o cálculo do SPI e de temperatura do ar para estimar a evapotranspiração potencial (ETp) para o SPEI nas escalas de 1, 6 e 12 meses. Utilizou-se análises de ajuste paramétricos e concordância para avaliação e comparação com dados de estações de superfície. Os resultados indicam que os dados do CRU (P e ETp) apresentam baixa correlação com os dados das estações. Os dados do SPI e SPEI obtidos por meio do CRU e ERA5 apresentaram correlação ligeiramente maior no inverno na escala de tempo mensal. Um estudo de caso da crise hídrica de 2014 mostrou que os índices calculados a partir dos dados da CRU subestimaram o episódio da seca. Por outro lado, os índices calculados a partir dos dados ERA5 superestimaram a seca. Dessa forma, conclui-se que os dados de reanálise não podem ser utilizados diretamente para o monitoramento da seca.

Abstract The aim of this study was to evaluate the suitability of the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) and the 5th Generation of European ReAnalysis (ERA5) for calculating both SPI and SPEI and, hence, for drought monitoring in the state of São Paulo. Monthly precipitation (P) and air temperature data were used to calculate the SPI and the SPEI at time scales of 1, 6 and 12 months. Goodness-of-fit tests and indices of agreement were used in this study. It was observed low agreement between data provided by the CRU (P and P- ETP) and data from the surface stations. However, the SPI and SPEI estimates presented a slightly higher agreement, especially in the winter months at the monthly time scale. Equivalent results were found for the ERA5 data. A case study on the water crisis of 2014 showed that the drought indices calculated from the CRU data underestimated the drought episode. On the other hand, the indices calculated from ERA5 data overestimated the drought. Therefore, we concluded that the reanalysis data cannot be directly used for drought monitoring in the state of São Paulo.

ABSTRACT The improvement of probabilistic assessments of extreme air temperature events is a major goal for agrometeorological studies. The regional frequency analysis based on L-moments (RFA-Lmom) has been successfully used to improve the study of hydrometeorological variables such as extreme rainfall events. This study investigated the hypothesis that the RFA-Lmom can be applied to extreme maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) air temperature data. The RFA-Lmon was calculated considering its original algorithm (multiplicative approach) and a new procedure referred as to additive approach. The suitability of both approaches was evaluated through Monte Carlo experiments, which simulated homogeneous and heterogeneous groups of Tmin and Tmax series, and through a case study based on weather stations situated in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. The results found in this study indicated that the RFA-Lmom can be applied to Tmax and Tmin data in tropical/subtropical regions such as the state of São Paulo. In addition, the additive approach consistently outperformed the multiplicative approach. Both discordance and heterogeneous measures presented their best performances when calculated under this new approach. The original goodness-of-fit measure may also be replaced by its bivariate extension when the group is formed by more than 15 series.

Abstract Macadamia is a nut tree native to Australian rainforest. Due to the small wild populations and the economic interest, studies assessing genetic information are fundamental for use and conservation of this species. Therefore, the present study aimed to assess the structure and genetic diversity of 28 cultivars of macadamia originated from United States, Australia and Brazil, introduced or developed by the Agronomic Institute’s breeding program, using 29 new microsatellite loci. The microsatellite loci showed high genetic diversity (3.65 alleles per locus on average). Our results also suggested the existence of no genetic structure between cultivars, regardless of their geographic origin. The modified Rogers’ distances between cultivars ranged from 0.227 to 0.671. Despite the lack of information about genealogy, the cultivars from this Brazilian germplasm showed moderate genetic diversity, so they can be used as parents in future crosses.

RESUMEN Los árboles de macadamia requieren un largo período para empezar la floración cuando se propagan por semillas. Para anticipar el rendimiento, mantener las características del cultivar y aumentar la homogeneidad de la calidad de las nueces, es esencial establecer huertos con árboles injertados. Aunque se han realizado ensayos de propagación de esta planta por estacas semileñosas en Brasil, ningún método ha demostrado ser el apropiado a gran escala debido a las dificultades en la implementación de las técnicas o al alto costo. El establecimiento de un protocolo eficiente y accesible puede proporcionar una gran mejora a esta cadena productiva ya que satisfará la demanda de viveros y estimulará la expansión de los huertos. El objetivo de este estudio fue desarrollar un protocolo para la propagación de macadamia por estacas semileñosas. Seis cultivares (HAES 344, HAES 816, HAES 660, IAC 4-12B, IAC 9-20, e IAC 4-20) fueron evaluados y seleccionados por su amplio cultivo en Brasil. El material de propagación se recolectó durante cuatro meses (octubre y noviembre de 2018 y febrero y marzo de 2019). Las estacas semileñosas se sumergieron en ácido indolbutírico (AIB) en tres concentraciones diferentes (0, 5, o 10 g L-1), y en el producto comercial Clonex®. El experimento se realizó siguiendo un diseño bidireccional con cuatro repeticiones y los datos fueron analizados por el software R. El cultivar IAC 4-12B mostró el índice más alto para el desarrollo de las raíces (37.0%). Los tratamientos no mostraron diferencias significativas entre las dosis de AIB y Clonex® para el desarrollo de las raíces (AIB 10 g L-1 - 31.5%, Clonex® - 29.4%, AIB 5 g L-1 -27.4%). Noviembre fue la mejor temporada de recolección para el enraizamiento de las estacas semileñosas (10.0%).

ABSTRACT Macadamia trees require a long period for flowering when propagated by seeds. To anticipate the yield, maintain cultivar characteristics, and increase the homogeneity of nut quality, it is essential to establish orchards with grafted trees. Although semi-hardwood cutting propagation tests have been performed in Brazil, no method has been shown to be appropriate at a large scale due to the difficulties in implementation of techniques or the high cost. Establishing an effective and affordable protocol may provide great improvement to this productive chain since it will meet the demand of nurseries and stimulate the expansion of orchards. The aim of this study was to develop a protocol for macadamia semi-hardwood cutting propagation. Six cultivars (HAES 344, HAES 816, HAES 660, IAC 4-12B, IAC 9-20, and IAC 4-20) were evaluated and selected because of their ample cultivation in Brazil. The propagation material was collected for four months (October and November 2018, and February and March 2019). The semi-hardwood cuttings were also soaked in indole butyric acid (IBA) at three different concentrations (0, 5, or 10 g L-1) and in the commercial product Clonex®. The experiment was arranged in a two-way completely randomized design with four replicates and data were analyzed by R software. The cultivar IAC 4-12B showed the highest index for root development (37.0%). The treatments did not show significant differences between IBA doses and Clonex® for root development (IBA 10 g L-1 - 31.5%, Clonex® - 29.4%, and IBA 5 g L-1 - 27.4%). November was the best cutting season for root development of semi-hardwood cuttings (10.0%).

Resumo: O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar o efeito de 19 porta-enxertos clonais sobre o crescimento vegetativo e os teores de nutrientes nas folhas dos pessegueiros (Prunus persica) 'BRS Kampai' e 'BRS Rubimel'. No período de 2014 a 2018, foram realizados dois ensaios em campo, nos municípios de Jarinu e Jundiaí, no estado de São Paulo, Brasil. Foram avaliadas as cultivares BRS Kampai e BRS Rubimel enxertadas em 19 porta-enxertos clonais, além de suas copas autoenraizadas, em Jarinu e Jundiaí, respectivamente. Em Jarinu, os porta-enxertos Barrier, Cadaman, 'Capdeboscq', Flordaguard, GxN9, I-67-52-4, 'Okinawa', México Fila-1, Nemared, Tsukuba-2 e Tsukuba-3, além da copa autoenraizada, apresentaram melhor desempenho para crescimento vegetativo e teores de nutrientes nas folhas. Em Jundiaí, todos os genótipos, exceto Marianna 2624 e Mirabolano 29C, não apresentaram diferenças estatísticas quanto ao crescimento vegetativo. O desempenho de 'BRS Kampai' e 'BRS Rubimel' autoenraizadas é similar ao dos porta-enxertos tradicionais, como 'Okinawa'. Assim, as cultivares-copa avaliadas podem ser consideradas alternativa interessante para locais com condições bióticas e abióticas de solo adequadas.

Abstract: The objective of this work was to evaluate the effect of 19 clonal rootstocks on the vegetative growth and foliar nutrient contents of the 'BRS Kampai' and 'BRS Rubimel' peach (Prunus persica) trees. In the period of 2014 to 2018, two field trials were carried out in the municipalities of Jarinu and Jundiaí, in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. The BRS Kampai and BRS Rubimel cultivars, budded on 19 clonal rootstocks, besides their own-rooted scions, were evaluated in Jarinu and Jundiaí, respectively. In Jarinu, the Barrier, Cadaman, 'Capdeboscq', Flordaguard, GxN9, I-67-52-4, 'Okinawa', México Fila-1, Nemared, Tsukuba-2, and Tsukuba-3 rootstocks, as well as the own-rooted scion, showed the best performance for vegetative growth and foliar nutrient contents. In Jundiaí, all genotypes, except Marianna 2624 and Mirabolano 29C, did not show any statistical difference regarding vegetative growth. The performance of own-rooted 'BRS Kampai' and 'BRS Rubimel' is similar to that of traditional rootstocks, such as 'Okinawa'. Therefore, the evaluated scion cultivars may be an interesting alternative for sites with suitable biotic and abiotic soil conditions.

ABSTRACT The selection of an appropriate nonstationary Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution is frequently based on methods, such as Akaike information criterion (AIC), second-order Akaike information criterion (AICc), Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and likelihood ratio test (LRT). Since these methods compare all GEV-models considered within a selection process, the hypothesis that the number of candidate GEV-models considered in such process affects its own outcomehas been proposed. Thus, this study evaluated the performance of these four selection criteria as function of sample sizes, GEV-shape parameters and different numbers candidate GEV-models. Synthetic series generated from Monte Carlo experiments and annual maximum daily rainfall amounts generated by the climate model MIROC5 (2006-2099; State of São Paulo-Brazil) were subjected to three distinct fitting processes, which considered different numbers of increasingly complex GEV-models. The AIC, AICc, BIC and LRT were used to select “the most appropriate” model for each series within each fitting process.BIC outperformed all other criteria when the synthetic series were generated from stationary GEV-models or from GEV-models allowing changes only in the location parameter (linear or quadratic). However, this latter method performed poorly when the variance of the series varied over time. In such cases, AIC and AICc should be preferred over BIC and LRT. The performance of all selection criteria varied with the different number of GEV-models considered in each fitting processes. In general, the higher the number of GEV-models considered within aselection process, the worse the performance of the selection criteria. In conclusion, the number of GEV-models to be used within a selection process should be set with parsimony.

ABSTRACT A key step for any modeling study is to compare model-produced estimates with observed/reliable data. The original index of agreement (also known as original Willmott index) has been widely used to measure how well model-produced estimates simulate observed data. However, in its original version such index may lead the user to erroneously select a predicting model. Therefore, this study compared the sensibility of the original index of agreement with its two newer versions (modified and refined) and provided an easy-to-use R-code capable of calculating these three indices. First, the sensibility of the indices was evaluated through Monte Carlo Experiments. These controlled simulations considered different sorts of errors (systematic, random and systematic + random) and errors magnitude. By using the R-code, we also carried out a case of study in which the indices are expected to indicate that th empirical Thornthwaite’s model produces poor estimates of daily reference evapotranspiration in respect to the standard method Penman-Monteith (FAO56). Our findings indicate that the original index of agreement may indeed erroneously select a predicting model performing poorly. Our results also indicate that the newer versions of this index overcome such problem, producing more rigorous evaluations. Although the refined Willmott index presents the broadest range of possible values, it does not inform the user if a predicting model overestimate or underestimate the simulated data, resulting in no extra information regarding those already provided by the modified version. None of the indices represents the error as linear functions of its magnitude in respect to the observed process.

ABSTRACT The intensification of drought incidence is one of the most important threats of the 21st century with significant effects on food security. Accordingly, there is a need to improve the understanding of the regional impacts of climate change on this hazard. This study assessed long-term trends in probability-based drought indices (Standardized Precipitation Index and Standardized Evapotranspiration Index) in the State of São Paulo, Brazil. Owing to the multi-scalar nature of both indices, the analyses were performed at 1 to 12-month time scales. The indices were calculated by means of a relativist approach that allowed us to compare drought conditions from different periods. The years 1961-1990 were used as the referential period. To the authors’ best knowledge, this is the first time that such relativist approach is used in historical trend analysis. The results suggest that the evapotranspiration rates have intensified the regional drought conditions. The time scale used to calculate the indices significantly affected the outcomes of drought trend assessments. The reason behind this feature is that the significant changes in the monthly regional patterns are limited to a specific period of the year. More specifically, virtually all significant changes have been observed during the first trimester of the rainy season (October, November and December). Considering that this period corresponds to critical plant growth stages (flowering/regrowth/sprouting) of several major crops (e.g. Sugarcane and Citrus), we may conclude that these significant changes have increased the risk of crop yield reductions due to agricultural drought.

ABSTRACT Plant variables and must physicochemical properties were evaluated for the grapevine ‘Syrah’ cultivated in sequential growing seasons (summer and winter) from 2011 to 2015. The vines were trellised in vertical shoot position, grafted on Paulsen 1103, with approximate density of 5,800 plants∙ha−1. They were grown under plastic overhead cover. The experimental design was completely randomized, and the following variables were measured at the harvest: number of branches, number of clusters, cluster weight and yield, soluble solids content, pH, and titratable acidity. The highest values of yield, cluster weight, and titratable acidity were observed during the summer growing season, while the highest values of soluble solids content and pH were observed during winter. These results suggest that the grapes harvested during the winter show physicochemical characteristics more suitable than those observed during the summer crops for winemaking purposes.

ABSTRACT The need to use a length of rainfall records of at least 30 years to calculate the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) limits its application in several Drought Early Warning Systems of developing countries. Therefore, in order to increase the number of weather stations in which the SPI may be applied, this study quantified the difference among SPI values derived from calibration periods (CP) smaller than 30 years in respect to those computed from the 30-year period of 1985 – 2014 in the State of São Paulo, Brazil (time scales ranging from 1 to 12 months were considered). The correlation, agreement and consistency of SPI values derived from CP ranging from the last 30 to 21 years have been evaluated. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov/Lilliefors test indicated, for all CP, that the 2-parameter gamma distribution may be used to calculate the SPI in the State of São Paulo. The normality test indicated that, even for the period of 1985 – 2014, the normally assumption of the SPI series is not always met. However, it was observed no remarkable difference in the rejection rates of the normality assumption obtained from the different CP. Finally, both absolute mean error and the modified index of agreement indicated a high consistence among SPI values derived from the calibration period of 1991 – 2014 (24 years) in respect to those derived from the 30-year period. Accordingly, it is possible to use weather stations with rainfall records starting in 1991 (or earlier) to calculate, in operational mode, the SPI in the State of São Paulo.

RESUMO A uva ‘Cabernet Sauvignon’ utilizada para elaboração de vinho tem tido seu plantio incrementado na região vitivinícola de São Roque (SP), sendo o sistema de sustentação mais usual a espaldeira. Recentemente, foi introduzido o sistema de sustentação em manjedoura na forma de Y, portanto foi realizado experimento objetivando caracterizar a produção e as características químicas do mosto da ‘Cabernet Sauvignon’ sustentada em espaldeira e em Y. As avaliações foram feitas durante os anos agrícolas: 2010/2011, 2011/2012 e 2012/2013. As videiras sustentadas em Y apresentaram maiores médias de massa dos cachos e de produtividade quando comparadas às sustentadas em espaldeira. As médias de produtividade estimada variaram entre 9,89 e 13,64 t ha-1 para a espaldeira e entre 13,34 e 17,43 t ha-1 para a manjedoura na forma de Y. Em relação às características químicas do mosto (teor de sólidos solúveis, pH e acidez titulável), não foram observadas diferenças estatísticas entre os sistemas de sustentação das videiras. As médias do teor de sólidos solúveis variaram entre 17,3 e 19,3°Brix, e a acidez titulável total, entre 98 e 143 meq.L-1 para os diferentes anos agrícolas avaliados.

ABSTRACT The grapevine ‘Cabernet Sauvignon’ used for wine purposes is increasing its cultivation in the region of São Roque (State of São Paulo, Brazil) being the vertical shoot position (VSP) system the most usual among the growers. Recently it was introduced the Y training system, therefore a field trial was carried out to characterize yield and chemical characteristics of the must of ‘Cabernet Sauvignon’ grown under different training systems. Evaluations were made during the following growing seasons: 2010/11, 2011/12 and 2012/13. The grapevines trellised on the Y shape showed higher cluster weight and yield when compared to the VSP system. The obtained values of yield varied from 9.89 and 13.64 t ha-1 for the VSP system and from 13.34 and 17.43 t ha-1 for the Y shaped system. Regarding the chemical characteristics of the must (soluble solids, pH and titratable acidity) it was not found statistical differences when comparing the training systems. The obtained values of total soluble solids content varied from 17.3 and 19.3°Brix and titratable acidity from 98 and 143 meq.L-1 for different growing seasons evaluated.

O método do balanço de energia foi utilizado em vinhedo da uva para vinho ‘Cabernet Franc’, conduzido em espaldeira alta, para caracterizar a repartição do saldo de radiação (SR) nos diferentes fluxos de calor: latente (LE), sensível e no solo. Em média LE representou aproximadamente 79% de SR. São apresentadas as variações horárias dos componentes do balanço de energia para dias: ensolarado e nublado. O consumo hídrico do vinhedo para os diferentes subperíodos fenológicos foi: poda-florescimento (99 mm), florescimento-início de maturação (249 mm) e início de maturação-colheita (201 mm). Para o ciclo total (poda-colheita), o consumo hídrico obtido foi de 549 mm.

The energy balance method was used on a ‘Cabernet Franc’ vineyard trained on a vertical trellis system with branches attached to four wires to characterize the partition of the net solar radiation (SR) into the latent (LE), sensible and soil heat fluxes. As an average LE represented 79% of SR. Hourly variation of the energy balance components for sunny and cloudy days are shown. The water consumption for the different phenological phases were: pruning-flowering (99 mm), flowering-veraison (249 mm); veraison-harvest (201 mm). Considering the entire cycle (pruning-harvest) the water consumption was 549 mm.

O teste de Mann-Kendall vem sendo largamente utilizado para detecção de tendências em séries agro-meteorológicas e hidrológicas. A abordagem denominada trend-free pre-whitening (TFPW-MK) foi desenvolvida para melhor o desempenho do mesmo na presença de correlação serial. Dessa forma, o objetivo principal deste estudo foi avaliar a habilidade do TFPW-MK em detectar tendências não lineares. Sob um estudo de caso, esse método foi também aplicado em series decendiais de precipitação pluvial (P), de evapotranspiração potencial (ETP) e da diferença P-ETP, pertencentes à localidade de Ribeirão Preto, Estado de São Paulo. Resultados obtidos a partir de simulações de Monte Carlo indicaram que tendências de elevação convexas e côncavas elevam e diminuem, respectivamente, o poder ou rigor do teste. Os resultados obtidos para a localidade de Ribeirão Preto revelam uma pressão crescente sobre o manejo agrícola de água devido a valores crescentes de ETP. Assim, conclui-se que o poder ou rigor do TFPW-MK é influenciado pela forma das tendências e que a hipótese de inexistência de alterações climáticas na região do estudo não pode ser aceita.

The Mann-Kendall test has been widely used to detect trends in agro-meteorological as well as hydrological time series. Trend-free pre-whitening (TFPW-MK) is an approach that improves the performance of this test in the presence of serial correlation. The main goal of this study was to evaluate the ability of TFPW-MK to detect nonlinear trends. As a case study, this approach was also applied to 10-day values of precipitation (P), potential evapotranspiration (PE) and the difference between P and PE (P- PE) obtained from the weather station of Ribeirão Preto, State of São Paulo, Brazil. The results obtained from Monte Carlo simulations indicate that upward convex trends increase the power of this test, while upward concave trends decrease its power. The results obtained from the location of Ribeirão Preto reveal an increasing pressure on agricultural water management due to growing PE values. Thus, we conclude that the power of the TFPW-MK is affected by the shape of the trend and that the hypothesis of the absence of climate change in the abovementioned location cannot be accepted.