Resumo O objetivo deste estudo é avaliar os termos da equação da tendência da energia cinética do distúrbio (K’) nas previsões de 24 h e 48 h dos modelos regionais BRAMS, WRF e ETA. Estes modelos foram integrados operacionalmente no Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos (CPTEC). O período de avaliação foi de 1 de junho a 31 de agosto de 2016, sendo que o domínio utilizado foi a região da América do Sul. A resolução horizontal dos modelos é de 5 km e a temporal é de 6 horas. As condições iniciais e de contorno foram obtidas do Global Forecast System (GFS) do National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), com resolução horizontal de 0,25°. Os modelos foram inicializados apenas com a análise das 1200 UTC. Os modelos foram integrados com a versão não-hidrostática, sendo que o WRF utilizou a parametrização cumulus de Kain-Frisch, o ETA a parametrização culumus de Betts-Miller e o BRAMS Grell e Freitas. Em geral, os três modelos subestimam K’ nas latitudes médias, principalmente sobre os oceanos, porém o ETA é o que menos subestima e o WRF o que tem o maior viés negativo. Com relação aos termos de conversão baroclínica e barotrópica, além do termo de convergência do fluxo ageostrófico, os três modelos apresentam um padrão semelhante aos das análises numéricas do GFS.

Abstract The aim of this study is to evaluate the terms of the eddy kinetic energy (K’) equation in the 24 h and 48 h forecasts of the regional models BRAMS, WRF and ETA. These models were operationally integrated at the Weather Forecast and Climate Studies Center (CPTEC). The evaluation period was from June 1 to August 31, 2016 and the domain was the region of South America. The horizontal resolution of the three models is 5 km and the temporal is 6 h. The initial and boundary conditions were obtained from the Global Forecast System (GFS) of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), with a horizontal resolution of 0.25°. The models were initialized only with the analysis of 1200 UTC. The non-hydrostatic version of the three models was run, with WRF using Kain-Frisch cumulus parameterization, ETA Betts-Miller culumus parameterization and BRAMS Grell and Freitas. In general, the three models underestimate K‘ in mid-latitudes, mainly over the oceans, however, ETA is the one that underestimates the least and WRF the most. Regarding the terms of baroclinic and barotropic conversion, in addition to the term of ageostrophic flow convergence, the three models have a similar pattern of these three terms with that of GFS numerical analysis.

Abstract Background: Pulmonary involvement in juvenile systemic sclerosis (JSSc) is rare in children and contributes to morbimortality. This study aimed to describe the pulmonary function and clinical, radiologic, and tomographic findings in JSSc. Methods: Patients with JSSc between 5-14 years of age were included. Clinical, functional, and imaging characteristics were assessed. Patients were excluded if they showed lung disease not associated with JSSc: mixed connective tissue disease, overlap syndrome, or acute cardiopulmonary failure at the time of the study. All patients underwent physical examination, electrocardiogram, spirometry, chest X-ray, high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT) of the chest, echocardiography, lung function tests, and the 6-minute walk test (6-MWT). Descriptive statistics were employed for data analysis. Results: We studied 15 patients with the following characteristics: median age, 11 years; median since symptoms onset, 6 years; median since JSSc diagnosis and the finding of pulmonary involvement, 2 years. Lung disease was detected in 73%, interstitial lung disease (ILD) the most common affection (67%); pulmonary hypertension was found in 6.6%. 6-MWT was positive in 26.6%, forced vital capacity (FVC) was abnormal in 26.6%. No pulmonary involvement was found in four patients. Conclusions: The most frequent pulmonary affection in JSSc was ILD. Thus, early JSSc detection and periodic lung monitoring are mandatory to avoid further complications once JSSc is diagnosed.

Resumen Introducción: La afección pulmonar en la esclerosis sistémica juvenil (ESJ) es rara en niños y contribuye a la morbimortalidad. El objetivo de este estudio fue describir los hallazgos de función pulmonar, clínicos, radiológicos y tomográficos en la ESJ. Métodos: Se incluyeron pacientes con ESJ de 5-14 años de edad. Se evaluaron las características clínicas, funcionales y de imagen. No se incluyeron pacientes con enfermedades pulmonares no asociadas con ESJ en el momento del estudio: enfermedad mixta del tejido conectivo, síndrome de superposición o insuficiencia cardiopulmonar aguda. Se realizaron exploración física, electrocardiograma, espirometría, radiografía de tórax, tomografía computarizada de alta resolución de tórax, ecocardiografía, pruebas de función pulmonar y prueba de caminata de 6 minutos (PC6M). Se utilizó estadística descriptiva para el análisis de los datos. Resultados: Se estudiaron 15 pacientes con las siguientes características: mediana de edad, 11 años; mediana desde el inicio de los síntomas, 6 años; y mediana desde el diagnóstico de ESJ y hallazgo de afección pulmonar, 2 años. Se detectó enfermedad pulmonar en el 73%. La enfermedad pulmonar intersticial (EPI) fue la afección más común (67%) y se encontró hipertensión pulmonar en el 6.6%. La PC6M fue positiva en el 26.6%, y la capacidad vital forzada resultó anormal en el 26.6%. Cuatro pacientes no presentaron afección pulmonar. Conclusiones: La afección pulmonar más frecuente en la ESJ fue la EPI. La detección temprana de ESJ y la monitorización pulmonar periódica son obligatorias para evitar más complicaciones una vez diagnosticada la ESJ.