Resumo Este trabalho discute elementos conformadores de instabilidade financeira em países em desenvolvimento, buscando evidenciar mecanismos de incentivo que condicionam o comportamento dos diferentes setores presentes nas economias ao longo dos ciclos. É utilizada como referência a hipótese de fragilidade financeira de Minsky (1986), e avaliados aspectos estruturais que acentuam a fragilidade deste grupo de países, relacionados à sua forma de inserção comercial e financeira, num contexto de elevada liberdade de fluxos de capitais. Partindo do balanço estilizado e das principais relações financeiras intersetoriais em uma economia aberta, notam-se elementos que conduzem a uma postura procíclica por parte dos diferentes setores, elevando sua vulnerabilidade nos períodos de crescimento, a despeito dos diferentes objetivos de atuação dos setores público e privado. É ressaltada a relevância de instrumentos que contribuam para que o Estado constitua margens de manobra para atuar de modo anticíclico e reduzam sua exposição à oscilação dos fluxos internacionais de capitais.

Abstract This paper discusses elements that contribute to financial instability in developing countries, evaluating incentive mechanisms that condition the behavior of different economic sectors over the cycles. Minsky’s financial fragility hypothesis is used as a theoretical reference, in addition to an analysis of structural constraints that accentuate the fragility of this group of countries, related to their position in global commercial and financial systems, in an environment marked by freedom of capital movements. From the stylized balance and main financial intersectoral relations in an open economy, it is observed that different domestic sectors tend to present procyclical behavior, increasing their vulnerability in periods of growth, despite the different objectives of the public and private sectors. We highlight the relevance of instruments that provide the State with margins of maneuver for countercyclical policy actions, in order to reduce collateral effects from fluctuations in international capital flows.

RESUMO: A necessidade de definir fundamentos microeconômicos para os modelos macroeconômicos, presente no pensamento dominante na economia contemporânea, pode ser questionada com base em diferentes abordagens teóricas. Posições como as de Marx e Keynes permitem a apreensão das ações dos agentes econômicos (grupos ou classes) como influenciadas e limitadas pelo ambiente social e macroeconômico, fornecendo visões de fundamentos macroeconômicos da microeconomia, ao invés da visão ortodoxa de fundamentos micro da macroeconomia. Essa forma de apreensão lança luz sobre diferenças de perspectivas da heterodoxia quando se trata de intervir sobre o contexto macroeconômico.

ABSTRACT: The need to define microeconomic foundations for macroeconomic models, which is present in the mainstream thinking in contemporary economics, can be questioned on the basis of different theoretical approaches. Positions like those of Marx and Keynes permit the comprehension of the actions of economic agents (groups or classes) as influenced and limited by the social and macroeconomic environment, providing views of macroeconomic foundations of microeconomics, instead of the orthodox view of microfoundations of macroeconomics. This comprehension sheds light on distinct perspectives in heterodox thought regarding the intervention in the macroeconomic context.

O artigo analisa as várias vertentes do desenvolvimentismo, procurando destacar as suas origens teóricas e justificar, por meio delas, as diferentes prescrições de políticas econômicas. Em seguida, o artigo toma partido no debate, por meio de discussão resenhada dos trabalhos recentes sobre os modelos de crescimento export-led, demand-led, debt-led, profit-led e wage-led.

The article analyzes the different approaches to "developmentalism", emphasizing its theoretical origins, and highlighting them as the source of different economic policy propositions. The paper then takes the side of one of the approaches, based on theoretical and empirical articles on different growth regimes in Brazil, such as export-led, demand-led, debt-led, profit-led and wage-led.

O artigo analisa a economia brasileira e sua vulnerabilidade externa (no período recente) a partir do referencial teórico de Minsky (1982, 1982b e 1986).Observa-se a tendência recorrente de ampliação da vulnerabilidade e o movimento cíclico dessa tendência não associada a regimes cambiais específicos, mas ampliada pela falta de controles cambiais. Nota-se, também, que o aprofundamento da vulnerabilidade externa da economia brasileira deve-se, sobretudo, ao comportamento da conta financeira, que compensou, com sobras, os resultados positivos obtidos pela balança comercial. Tais elementos conduzem a observação de uma tendência à ampliação da instabilidade nas esferas financeira e real dessa economia.

The paper analyses the Brazilian economy and its external vulnerability based on Minsky's theoretical approach. The continuous tendency increasing vulnerability and its cyclical movement, independent of the exchange rate regime, is observed. The paper points out that this tendency has been, in recent periods, mainly associated with the behaviour of the financial account, which compensated for the positive results of the country's balance of trade. All of these elements lead to the observation of an increased tendency towards increasing instability regarding the financial and real spheres of the Brazilian economy.

Fiscal adjustment in Brazil: Some considerations under a post Keynesian approach. The article analyses the main issues concerned to fiscal policy in Brazil. For doing so, it assumes a Post Keynesian approach on this issue. First, it observes the origins of the Brazilian fiscal crises, showing that the Brazilian external debt had a fundamental role to play in its configuration. After, it analyses the present conduction of the fiscal policy in Brazil, emphasizing the orthodox framework that support it. Finally, the Post Keynesian approach on fiscal policy and the role of the State, as an element essential to reach a greater economic stability is discussed, showing that there are several experiences that seems to have a Keynesian bias, but that has little relation to Keynes approach, as is the case of Brazil.

International liquidity and reflex cycle: some observations to Latin America. The international financial instability of the 1990 has been analysed in several occasions on Minskyan perspectives. The paper is based on this theoretical approach and intends to demonstrate that the financial fragility hypothesis is very useful to the analysis of the cycle in peripheral economies, which real performance is associated to the availability of international liquidity. The analysis is based on three Latin American countries: Brazil, Argentina and Mexico.

RESUMO O artigo analisa uma questão muito frequente no debate acadêmico entre diferentes escolas de pensamento: a relevância da teoria da preferência pela liquidez sob os novos arranjos financeiros internacionais e nacionais. A questão principal aqui é assinalar que esses novos arranjos deram demasiada liquidez aos ativos financeiros não monetários que tornaram irrelevante o atributo liquidez do dinheiro; portanto, a preferência pela liquidez perde seu significado. O artigo demonstra que, sob as suposições de Keynes, que sustentam a teoria da preferência pela liquidez, esse novo arranjo enfatiza e fortalece vários motivos para exigir dinheiro e não o contrário, reforçando assim a validade da teoria.

ABSTRACT The paper analyses a question that is very frequent in the academic debate among different schools of thought: the relevance of the liquidity preference theory under the new international and national financial arrangements. The main issue here is to point out that those new arrangements gave too much liquidity to non-monetary financial assets that made irrelevant the liquidity attribute of money; therefore, liquidity preference loses its meaning. The paper demonstrates that under Keynes assumptions, which support liquidity preference theory, this new arrangement emphasizes and strengthens several motives for demanding money and not the contrary, reinforcing in this way the validity of the theory.