Resumo A tomada de decisão utilizando informações meteorológicas muitas vezes é um processo complexo, de alto impacto e, em algumas situações, pode comprometer o funcionamento de instalações tecnológicas. Neste contexto, o objetivo deste artigo é apresentar uma abordagem de apoio à decisão em condições de incerteza meteorológica para a proteção das infraestruturas no Centro de Lançamento de Alcântara. A partir de uma demanda operacional, foi desenvolvido um índice meteorológico de modo a identificar a atitude dos decisores em relação às três características da informação meteorológica: a) probabilidade da previsão de tempo; b) prazo de validade; c) valor da variável atmosférica. Como estudo de caso, foi analisado um problema real de decisão para proteção das instalações do principal centro espacial brasileiro. Através da interação com os usuários na construção do índice, foi possível concluir que para probabilidades baixas (< 20%) ou para prazos de validade estendidos (> 24 h), o grupo de usuários entrevistados não utiliza a informação meteorológica para tomar decisões, mesmo com o prognóstico de condições extremas. Os resultados quantitativos demonstraram que o modelo de apoio à decisão proposto conseguiu incorporar a atitude do usuário não-meteorologista em relação à incerteza da informação meteorológica.

Abstract Decision-making using weather information is often a complex and high impact process, and in some situations, can disturb the functioning of technological facilities. In this sense, the aim of this paper is to present a decision support approach for infrastructure protection under weather uncertainty at the Alcântara Launch Center, in Brazil. From an operational demand, a weather index was developed to identify the decision maker's attitude about the three characteristics of meteorological information: a) weather forecast probability; b) lead time of the information; c) value of a meteorological variable. As a case study, we analyzed a real decision-making problem for the protection of an aerospace vehicle and integration tower in the Brazilian space center. Through the development of an index with the users, it was concluded that for low probabilities (< 20%) or extended lead time (> 24 h), the group of users do not use weather information to make decisions, even with a prognosis of extreme conditions. The quantitative results showed that the decision model managed to incorporate the attitude of non-meteorologist users regarding the handling of uncertainty in weather forecasts.

ABSTRACT: The meteorological and oceanographic conditions are crucial for the successful launch of aerospace vehicles. However, the decision-making process using environmental information is a complex problem, since it depends on a constant review of current and future weather conditions. To understand this process in the Brazilian Space Program (BSP) context, this paper aims to be the first attempt to map out the systemic view of applied meteorology for the launch missions of aerospace vehicles. Various Brazilian stakeholders were interviewed and their perspectives were analyzed by using a problem structuring method known as Strategic Options Development and Analysis (SODA). With this approach, it was possible to identify different concepts in each group of respondents regarding the current situation of Aerospace Meteorology. One particularly relevant result was identified: weather forecast is not merely a tool to be used to modify the chronology of a mission and to fully provide support in decision-making during the rocket launches in Brazil. Furthermore, the paper shows that the Aerospace Meteorology needs to improve technical processes and to develop a weather decision support system with decision-makers' preferences regarding the uncertainty in weather forecasts. SODA has shown to be a support tool to understand the real situation of meteorology for the launch of aerospace vehicles and appropriate to aid in future planning in the BSP.