Abstract Background The incidence of dengue in Mexico has increased in recent decades. It has been suggested that dengue outbreaks may compromise treatment quality in hospitals. Objective The objective of the study was to quantify the burden imposed by dengue on hospital services in Mexico. Methods We analyzed 19.2 million records contained in the database of hospital services of the Mexican Ministry of Health between 2008 and 2014. The number of admissions due to dengue was compared to other potentially preventable hospitalizations. Hospital departments were categorized to reflect dengue-related activity as high dengue activity (HDA), low dengue activity (LDA), or zero dengue activity departments, and the impact of dengue activity on general in-hospital mortality in HDA departments was assessed. Results Dengue was the cause of more hospital admissions than most of the potentially preventable prevalent acute and chronic conditions and other infectious diseases. In HDA departments, dengue patient load was found to be a significant risk factor for overall in-hospital mortality. There was an approximately two-fold higher dengue case-fatality rate in LDA versus HDA departments, irrespective of dengue severity. Conclusions This study confirms that dengue is an important cause of hospitalization in Mexico and highlights the impact of dengue activity not only on dengue case-fatality rate but also on the overall in-hospital mortality.

Dengue remains an unmet public health burden. We determined risk factors for dengue in-hospital mortality in Brazil. Of 326,380 hospitalised dengue cases in 9-45-year-old individuals, there were 971 deaths. Risk of dying was 11-times higher in the presence of underlying common comorbidities (renal, infectious, pulmonary disease and diabetes), similar to the risk of dying from severe dengue and much higher with the combination. Ensuring access to integrated dengue preventative measures in individuals aged ≥ 9 years including those with comorbidities may help achieve the WHO objective of 50% reduction in mortality and 25% reduction in morbidity due to dengue by 2020.

Neste trabalho propomos um modelo matemático para a estimativa da força de infecção, da idade média de primo-infecção, da idade ótima para vacinação de rotina e do intervalo ótimo de cobertura vacina em uma campanha para a introdução da vacina contra a dengue. O modelo baseia-se em publicações anteriores de desenhos de estratégias de vacinação contra outras infecções e que resultaram em estratégias de vacinação no Brasil. O modelo foi aplicado em três áreas com níveis endêmicos de dengue distintos na cidade de Recife, Pernambuco. Nossos resultados apontam para uma idade ótima de vacinação na rotina de dois anos de idade e para um intervalo de vacinação em campanha entre três e 14 anos.

In this work we propose a mathematical approach to estimate the dengue force of infection, the average age of dengue first infection, the optimum age to vaccinate children against dengue in a routine fashion and the optimum age interval to introduce the dengue vaccine in a mass vaccination campaign. The model is based on previously published models for vaccination against other childhood infections, which resulted in actual vaccination programmes in Brazil. The model was applied for three areas of distinct levels of endemicity of the city of Recife in Northeastern State of Pernambuco, Brazil. Our results point to an optimal age to introduce the dengue vaccine in the routine immunization programme at two years of age and an age interval to introduce a mass vaccination between three and 14 years of age.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the healthcare and economic impact of routine hepatitis A vaccination of toddlers in Chile. METHODS: We used a dynamic model of hepatitis A infection to evaluate the impact of a two-dose vaccination program, administered at ages 12 and 18 months. The model incorporated the changing epidemiology of hepatitis A in Chile and the development of vaccine-induced herd immunity. Our analysis was conducted from the public payer perspective, and an estimation of the societal perspective was performed. Costs are expressed in 2005 U.S. dollars. RESULTS: Vaccination of toddlers rapidly reduced the healthcare burden of hepatitis A. In the base case (95% vaccination coverage, 100-year time horizon, 1% annual decrease in force of infection), the average number of infections fell by 76.6% annually, and associated deaths fell by 59.7%. Even at 50% coverage, the program reduced infection rates substantially. Routine vaccination of toddlers had economic as well as health benefits, saving $4 984 per life-year gained (base case scenario). The program became cost saving after 6 years, and its overall cost-effectiveness per life-year gained was largely unaffected by changes in disease-related costs, herd immunity, coverage rate, and annual decrease in force of infection. CONCLUSIONS: Routine vaccination of toddlers will reduce the rates of symptomatic hepatitis A and associated mortality. The two-dose schedule evaluated here will be less expensive than disease-related costs in the absence of vaccination from the sixth year of its implementation. These findings support the establishment of a routine vaccination program for toddlers in Chile.

OBJETIVO: Evaluar el impacto sanitario y económico de la vacunación sistemática de infantes contra la hepatitis A en Chile. MÉTODOS: Se empleó un modelo dinámico de hepatitis A para evaluar el impacto de un programa de vacunación de dos dosis administradas a los 12 y 18 meses. El modelo incorporó la epidemiología cambiante de la hepatitis A en Chile y la aparición de la inmunidad de grupo inducida por la vacuna. El análisis se realizó desde la perspectiva del financiador público y se hizo un estimado desde la perspectiva de la sociedad. Los costos se expresaron en dólares estadounidenses del año 2005. RESULTADOS: La vacunación de los infantes redujo rápidamente la carga de la hepatitis A para los servicios de salud. En la variante de base (cobertura de la vacunación: 95%; horizonte temporal: 100 años; reducción anual de la virulencia de la infección: 1%), el número promedio de casos se redujo anualmente en 76% y el número de muertes asociadas disminuyó en 59,7%. Incluso con una cobertura de vacunación de 50%, el programa redujo notablemente la tasa de infección. La vacunación sistemática de los infantes presentó beneficios económicos y sanitarios y ahorró US$ 4 984,00 por año de vida ganado (en el escenario base). El programa generó ahorros a partir del sexto año y la efectividad general en función del costo por año de vida ganado no se afectó por cambios en los costos relacionados con la enfermedad, la inmunidad de grupo, la cobertura de vacunación o la reducción anual de la virulencia de la infección. CONCLUSIONES: La vacunación sistemática de los infantes reduciría la tasa de hepatitis A sintomática y la mortalidad asociada. A partir del sexto año del programa, los costos de aplicar el esquema evaluado de dos dosis serían menores que los relacionados con la enfermedad si no se aplicara la vacuna. Estos resultados apoyan la implantación de programas de vacunación sistemática de infantes contra la hepatitis A en Chile.