Resumo O objetivo deste estudo é avaliar os termos da equação da tendência da energia cinética do distúrbio (K’) nas previsões de 24 h e 48 h dos modelos regionais BRAMS, WRF e ETA. Estes modelos foram integrados operacionalmente no Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos (CPTEC). O período de avaliação foi de 1 de junho a 31 de agosto de 2016, sendo que o domínio utilizado foi a região da América do Sul. A resolução horizontal dos modelos é de 5 km e a temporal é de 6 horas. As condições iniciais e de contorno foram obtidas do Global Forecast System (GFS) do National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), com resolução horizontal de 0,25°. Os modelos foram inicializados apenas com a análise das 1200 UTC. Os modelos foram integrados com a versão não-hidrostática, sendo que o WRF utilizou a parametrização cumulus de Kain-Frisch, o ETA a parametrização culumus de Betts-Miller e o BRAMS Grell e Freitas. Em geral, os três modelos subestimam K’ nas latitudes médias, principalmente sobre os oceanos, porém o ETA é o que menos subestima e o WRF o que tem o maior viés negativo. Com relação aos termos de conversão baroclínica e barotrópica, além do termo de convergência do fluxo ageostrófico, os três modelos apresentam um padrão semelhante aos das análises numéricas do GFS.

Abstract The aim of this study is to evaluate the terms of the eddy kinetic energy (K’) equation in the 24 h and 48 h forecasts of the regional models BRAMS, WRF and ETA. These models were operationally integrated at the Weather Forecast and Climate Studies Center (CPTEC). The evaluation period was from June 1 to August 31, 2016 and the domain was the region of South America. The horizontal resolution of the three models is 5 km and the temporal is 6 h. The initial and boundary conditions were obtained from the Global Forecast System (GFS) of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), with a horizontal resolution of 0.25°. The models were initialized only with the analysis of 1200 UTC. The non-hydrostatic version of the three models was run, with WRF using Kain-Frisch cumulus parameterization, ETA Betts-Miller culumus parameterization and BRAMS Grell and Freitas. In general, the three models underestimate K‘ in mid-latitudes, mainly over the oceans, however, ETA is the one that underestimates the least and WRF the most. Regarding the terms of baroclinic and barotropic conversion, in addition to the term of ageostrophic flow convergence, the three models have a similar pattern of these three terms with that of GFS numerical analysis.

Abstract Background: Pulmonary involvement in juvenile systemic sclerosis (JSSc) is rare in children and contributes to morbimortality. This study aimed to describe the pulmonary function and clinical, radiologic, and tomographic findings in JSSc. Methods: Patients with JSSc between 5-14 years of age were included. Clinical, functional, and imaging characteristics were assessed. Patients were excluded if they showed lung disease not associated with JSSc: mixed connective tissue disease, overlap syndrome, or acute cardiopulmonary failure at the time of the study. All patients underwent physical examination, electrocardiogram, spirometry, chest X-ray, high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT) of the chest, echocardiography, lung function tests, and the 6-minute walk test (6-MWT). Descriptive statistics were employed for data analysis. Results: We studied 15 patients with the following characteristics: median age, 11 years; median since symptoms onset, 6 years; median since JSSc diagnosis and the finding of pulmonary involvement, 2 years. Lung disease was detected in 73%, interstitial lung disease (ILD) the most common affection (67%); pulmonary hypertension was found in 6.6%. 6-MWT was positive in 26.6%, forced vital capacity (FVC) was abnormal in 26.6%. No pulmonary involvement was found in four patients. Conclusions: The most frequent pulmonary affection in JSSc was ILD. Thus, early JSSc detection and periodic lung monitoring are mandatory to avoid further complications once JSSc is diagnosed.

Resumen Introducción: La afección pulmonar en la esclerosis sistémica juvenil (ESJ) es rara en niños y contribuye a la morbimortalidad. El objetivo de este estudio fue describir los hallazgos de función pulmonar, clínicos, radiológicos y tomográficos en la ESJ. Métodos: Se incluyeron pacientes con ESJ de 5-14 años de edad. Se evaluaron las características clínicas, funcionales y de imagen. No se incluyeron pacientes con enfermedades pulmonares no asociadas con ESJ en el momento del estudio: enfermedad mixta del tejido conectivo, síndrome de superposición o insuficiencia cardiopulmonar aguda. Se realizaron exploración física, electrocardiograma, espirometría, radiografía de tórax, tomografía computarizada de alta resolución de tórax, ecocardiografía, pruebas de función pulmonar y prueba de caminata de 6 minutos (PC6M). Se utilizó estadística descriptiva para el análisis de los datos. Resultados: Se estudiaron 15 pacientes con las siguientes características: mediana de edad, 11 años; mediana desde el inicio de los síntomas, 6 años; y mediana desde el diagnóstico de ESJ y hallazgo de afección pulmonar, 2 años. Se detectó enfermedad pulmonar en el 73%. La enfermedad pulmonar intersticial (EPI) fue la afección más común (67%) y se encontró hipertensión pulmonar en el 6.6%. La PC6M fue positiva en el 26.6%, y la capacidad vital forzada resultó anormal en el 26.6%. Cuatro pacientes no presentaron afección pulmonar. Conclusiones: La afección pulmonar más frecuente en la ESJ fue la EPI. La detección temprana de ESJ y la monitorización pulmonar periódica son obligatorias para evitar más complicaciones una vez diagnosticada la ESJ.

The relationships between the rainy season and corn yields in São Paulo State were investigated. The results showed that rainfall and corn yields are strongly positively correlated in most of the region, particularly in the northeastern, eastern, northwestern and western parts of the state (i.e. values are higher than 0.5 signifcant at 95% confdence level). The analysis of the trends in the duration of the rainy season and the associated accumulated precipitation showed a tendency of higher precipitation and shorter rainy seasons. It has been suggested to be due to global warming. Although rainfall and crop yields were positively correlated, an increase in heavy rainfall events in future may lead to landslides, fash foods and consequently crop damage. During the period 1970-2003 there was an increase of the rainy season and rainfall in strong El Niño episodes while in the case of La Niña events the rainy season was shorter and the rainfall decreased. Results of case studies considering the 1997-98 El Niño and the 1998-99 La Niña suggested that the increase (decrease) of the duration of the rainy season during the El Niño (La Niña) event is associated with the increase (decrease) of corn yields in São Paulo State. Further studies with a record of corn yields longer than 14 years and considering other El Niño/La Niña episodes are needed to obtain a frm connection between corn yields and ENSO events in São Paulo State.

En este estudio se investigaron las relaciones entre la temporada de lluvias y las cosechas de maíz en el estado de São Paulo, Brasil. Los resultados mostraron que las cosechas de maíz y las precipitaciones se correlacionan fuertemente en una gran parte de la región, particularmente en la parte noreste, este, noroeste y oeste del estado (valores positivos superiores a 0.5 y signifcativos a un nivel de confanza de 95%). El análisis de las tendencias en la duración de la temporada de lluvias y la precipitación acumulada asociada, mostraba una tendencia a mayor volumen de precipitación y una más corta temporada de lluvias. Esto puede ser debido al calentamiento global. Aunque se correlacionan positivamente las cosechas de maíz y la lluvia, un aumento en el futuro de eventos de intensas lluvias puede conducir a deslizamientos de tierras, inundaciones y, en consecuencia, provocar daños a los cultivos. Durante el período 1970-2003 hubo un aumento de duración en la temporada de lluvias y en el volumen de precipitación en fuertes episodios de El Niño, mientras que en el caso de los eventos de La Niña la temporada de lluvias fue más corta y hubo una disminución de las precipitaciones. Los resultados de los estudios de caso, teniendo en cuenta El Niño 1997-98 y La Niña 1998-99 sugirieron que el aumento (disminución) de la duración de la temporada de lluvias durante el evento de El Niño (La Niña) está asociado con el aumento (disminución) de las cosechas de maíz en el estado de São Paulo. Se necesitan estudios adicionales con un récord de datos de los rendimientos de maíz mayor de 14 años y teniendo en cuenta otros episodios de El Niño/LaNiña para hacer una conexión convincente entre las cosechas de maíz y eventos ENOS en el estado de São Paulo.

A energética dos distúrbios de alta freqüência é estudada por compostos dos sistemas ciclônicos. Os mapas compostos são construídos com dados filtrados da altura geopotencial em 1000 hPa para os dias em que a anomalia negativa no ponto base 70o W, 45o S estava abaixo de dois desvios padrões. Foram obtidos 61 compostos de sistemas ciclônicos. A distribuição espacial da energia potencial disponível dos distúrbios de alta freqüência é similar àquela obtida para os ciclones extratropicais do Hemisfério Norte. O ciclo de energia das anomalias filtradas com passa alta mostra que esses distúrbios crescem por conversões baroclínicas. Durante a fase de crescimento, fluxos de energia chegando na região e as fontes não conservativas são também importantes, embora a instabilidade barotrópica parece ter um papel importante sobre o oceano Pacífico durante essa fase. No estágio maduro, o distúrbio começa a decair barotropicamente e a energia radiativa é exportada para fora da região.

The energetics of the high frequency disturbances over South America are studied using composite maps of cyclone systems. The composite maps are constructed with filtered geopotential height data at 1000 hPa for the days when negative anomalies at the base grid point 70° W, 45° S exceeded two standard deviations below the mean. The cyclone system composite has 61 cases. The spatial distribution of the available potential energy of the high frequency disturbances is similar to what is seen for the Northern Hemisphere extratropical cyclones. The energy cycle of the high-pass filtered anomalies showed that these disturbances grow by baroclinic conversion. During the growing phase, energy fluxes coming into the region and nonconservative sources are also important, although barotropic instability seems to play some role over the Pacific Ocean. At the mature stage the disturbances showed barotropic decay and radiate energy out of the region.