Abstract This work evaluated the effect of fiscal policy on the effectiveness of monetary policy by the Central Bank of Brazil. Using monthly data from January-2003 to January-2020, a test was conducted to gauge how the cyclicality degree of the fiscal policy-in light of the variations in the public debt-affected the variability of the short-term real interest rate. To this goal, we extracted a fiscal response index from an unobservable state variable using the Kalman filter. Applying the cointegration method and GMM estimation, the results revealed that the smoothing and effectiveness of monetary policy depend on the degree of fiscal responsiveness to the level of public indebtedness. JEL Codes E31, H30, H63

Resumo: O presente trabalho investiga os impactos de choques de commodities, medidos pelo CRB index e pelo índice IC-Br, sobre a dinâmica inflacionária no Brasil, de janeiro de 2005 a dezembro de 2013, por meio de modelos vetoriais autoregressivos (VAR). Em especial, testou-se o papel da taxa de câmbio nominal enquanto mecanismo de amortecimento das pressões inflacionárias advindas daqueles choques. Os principais resultados foram os seguintes: (i) ambos os índices utilizados são robustos para antecipar variações de preços ao consumidor no Brasil; (ii) o CRB index é mais indicado para revelar a correlação inversa entre preços de commodities e a taxa nominal de câmbio no Brasil; (iii) as variações cambiais advindas dos choques nos preços de commodities são, como previsto pela literatura, um mecanismo importante de amortecimento das pressões inflacionárias resultantes.

Abstract: This article investigates the impacts of shocks in commodity prices, measured by the CRB and IC-Br indexes, on the inflationary dynamics in Brazil, from January 2005 to December 2013, using vector autoregressive (VAR) models. Specifically, the role of the nominal exchange rate was tested as a smoothing mechanism for inflationary effects of those shocks. The main results were the following: (i) Both indexes are robust for anticipating consumer prices changes in Brazil; (ii) the CRB index is more suitable to express the inverse correlation of commodities prices and the nominal exchange rate in Brazil; (iii) the exchange rate changes caused by shocks in commodity prices are, as expected by the literature, an important mechanism to smooth the induced inflationary pressure.

Harrod under analysis: path-dependence, historic time and endogenous structural change. The article aims to demonstrate how the Harrod's approach (1937, 1938, 1948) can offer theoretical elements to form a complex, historicists and non-determinist view of the economic system. The relaxation of the constant warranty rate hypothesis make possible the system suffers endogenous qualitative change. It results in the notion of path-dependence and historic time. By the endogenization of the expectations and the existence of turn-points mechanisms, this approach allows a synthesis between non-convergency and economic regulation.

It discusses that the equilibrium in Economics, as a method of analysis, has a conditional utility, when it is not necessary its association with ideal situations and with a constancy of structural parameters of the system. Keynes (1936) appears as an example of a good utilization of that method, for he doesn't link it with notions of social optimum or with a necessary system's structural stability.

O artigo busca fazer uma relação entre a ocorrência de path-dependence, a natureza expectacional do investimento e as flutuações econômicas, a partir de um referencial pós-keynesiano de análise. Em um ambiente não-ergódico, a fim de que o sistema tenha uma relativa estabilidade no tempo, a regulação econômica requer muito mais do que simples ajustamentos incrementais. Tornam-se necessárias, e possíveis, modificações qualitativas do sistema econômico. Tais modificações são analisadas a partir do conceito de bifurcação.

The article looks for making a relation between the path-dependence, the expectational nature of investment and the economic fluctuations, from a post-keynesian analysis view. On a non-ergodic environment, in order to the system receive a relative stability through time, the economic regulation requires much more than additional adjustments. It makes necessary, and possible, qualitative modifications of the economic system. These modifications are analyzed by the concept of bifurcation.

A refutação da Lei de Say pela Teoria Geral (TG) de Keynes está apoiada, basicamente, sobre dois elementos: a incerteza é necessária, mas não suficiente. A refutação completa daquela lei depende também de um ativo que possua as propriedades essenciais descritas e analisadas pela TG. Incerteza e moeda (enquanto ativo líquido) permitem à economia um equilíbrio com desemprego involuntário. Destarte, a política econômica possui um papel lógico na economia e a análise econômica ganha novos elementos metodológicos e dinâmicos. Abre-se espaço para a instabilidade e a irreversibilidade na teoria econômica. Este artigo abrange essas considerações, a partir de uma abordagem pós-keynesiana.

Fundamentally, the refutation of Say's Law by Keynes' General Theory (GT) depends on two elements: the uncertainty is necessary, but not enough. The full refutation of that law also depends on an asset which has the essential properties described and analyzed by GT. Uncertainty and money (as a liquid asset) allow the system an equilibrium with involuntary unemployment. Therefore, economic policy has a logical role on the system and economic analysis receives new methodological and dynamic elements. Instability and irrevocability reach place in economic theory. This article regards these considerations, from a post-keynesian perspective.