Abstract A second deadlier wave of COVID-19 and the causes of the recent public health collapse of Manaus are compared with the Spanish flu events in that city, and Brazil. Historic sanitarian problems, and its hub position in the Brazilian airway network are combined drivers of deadly events related to COVID-19. These drivers were amplified by misleading governance, highly transmissible variants, and relaxation of social distancing. Several of these same factors may also have contributed to the dramatically severe outbreak of H1N1 in 1918, which caused the death of 10% of the population in seven months. We modelled Manaus parameters for the present pandemic and confirmed that lack of a proper social distancing might select the most transmissible variants. We succeeded to reproduce a first severe wave followed by a second stronger wave. The model also predicted that outbreaks may last for up to five and half years, slowing down gradually before the disease disappear. We validated the model by adjusting it to the Spanish Flu data for the city, and confirmed the pattern experienced by that time, of a first stronger wave in October-November 1918, followed by a second less intense wave in February-March 1919.

Abstract The spread of SARS-CoV-2 and the distribution of cases worldwide followed no clear biogeographic, climatic, or cultural trend. Conversely, the internationally busiest cities in all countries tended to be the hardest hit, suggesting a basic, mathematically neutral pattern of the new coronavirus early dissemination. We tested whether the number of flight passengers per time and the number of international frontiers could explain the number of cases of COVID-19 worldwide by a stepwise regression. Analysis were taken by 22 May 2020, a period when one would claim that early patterns of the pandemic establishment were still detectable, despite of community transmission in various places. The number of passengers arriving in a country and the number of international borders explained significantly 49% of the variance in the distribution of the number of cases of COVID-19, and number of passengers explained significantly 14.2% of data variance for cases per million inhabitants. Ecological neutral theory may explain a considerable part of the early distribution of SARS-CoV-2 and should be taken into consideration to define preventive international actions before a next pandemic.

La diversidad de especies de insectos herbívoros asociados con el dosel puede variar geográficamente y responder a distintos factores a diferentes escalas espaciales. El objetivo de este estudio fue investigar cómo la estructura del dosel afecta la riqueza de especies de insectos herbívoros y la abundancia en función la especialización alimenticia. Se evaluó la hipótesis que propone que la estructura del hábitat afecta en forma diferente la riqueza y abundancia de especies de insectos que se alimentan de savia y la de especies herbívoras masticadoras. Dos escalas espaciales fueron evaluadas: el interior de las copas de árboles (escala fina) y regiones del dosel (escala gruesa). En tres sitios de muestreo medimos 120 copas de árboles, agrupadas en cinco puntos con cuatro copas de árboles contiguas. Los insectos fueron muestreados golpeando las copas y los datos fueron sumados para analizar cada región del dosel. En las copas (escala espacial fina) medimos la estructura del hábitat: circunferencia del tronco, altura del árbol, profundidad del dosel, número de ramificaciones y máximo nivel de ramificación. En cada punto, definiendo una región del dosel (escala gruesa), medimos la estructura del hábitat usando un transecto cilíndrico vertical: riqueza de especies árboles, área foliar, sumatoria de altura de los estratos y máxima altura del dosel. Fue realizado un análisis de componentes principales basado en las variables medidas para cada escala espacial para estimar los parámetros de la estructura del hábitat. Para probar los efectos de la estructura del hábitat sobre los herbívoros, se ajustaron diferentes modelos lineares generales usando estos componentes principales como variables causales. La riqueza de especies chupadoras de savia y la abundancia de todas las especies herbívoras se incrementaron con el tamaño de la copa en la escala espacial final. Por otro lado, la riqueza y abundancia de especies masticadoras incrementaron con la complejidad de la estructura del hábitat en la escala más gruesa. La especialización alimenticia, la disponibilidad de recursos y la movilidad son propuestas como los factores ecológicos que explican los patrones observados.

Species diversity of insect herbivores associated to canopy may vary local and geographically responding to distinct factors at different spatial scales. The aim of this study was to investigate how forest canopy structure affects insect herbivore species richness and abundance depending on feeding guilds´ specificities. We tested the hypothesis that habitat structure affects insect herbivore species richness and abundance differently to sap-sucking and chewing herbivore guilds. Two spatial scales were evaluated: inside tree crowns (fine spatial scale) and canopy regions (coarse spatial scale). In three sampling sites we measured 120 tree crowns, grouped in five points with four contiguous tree crowns. Insects were sampled by beating method from each crown and data were summed up for analyzing each canopy region. In crowns (fine spatial scale) we measured habitat structure: trunk circumference, tree height, canopy depth, number of ramifications and maximum ramification level. In each point, defined as a canopy region (coarse spatial scale), we measured habitat structure using a vertical cylindrical transect: tree species richness, leaf area, sum of strata heights and maximum canopy height. A principal component analysis based on the measured variables for each spatial scale was run to estimate habitat structure parameters. To test the effects of habitat structure upon herbivores, different general linear models were adjusted using the first two principal components as explanatory variables. Sap-sucking insect species richness and all herbivore abundances increased with size of crown at fine spatial scale. On the other hand, chewer species richness and abundance increased with resource quantity at coarse scale. Feeding specialization, resources availability, and agility are discussed as ecological causes of the found pattern.

Although Merostachys fischeriana is very abundant in the Brazilian Atlantic Rainforest, little attention has been paid to the biological interactions with other animals. The present study describes some of the interactions between ants and this bamboo species. The experiment was carried out in a fragment of a montane tropical forest in the Parque Estadual do Itacolomi, near Ouro Preto, MG, Brazil. Thirty culms of bamboo were randomly collected. The ants were obtained by direct collection from nodes and internodes. Morphometric variables of the bamboo were recorded for characterization of potential ant habitat. Merostachys fischeriana grows in rosettes as a thin bamboo (average = 1,0 cm; se = 0,27; n = 20) and is tall enough to reach the upper canopy of this low forest (average = 9,1 m; se = 2,72; n = 20). Fifteen ant species were sampled. Brachymyrmex heeri Forel was the most abundant in the nodes, while Camponotus crassus Mayr (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) was the most abundant in the internodes. The composition of the species that inhabit the internodes was different from the composition in the node (Q-test: Q = 3,76; P = 0,05). The level of occupation was defined by the number of holes (F = 10,33; P < 0,01), the number of internodes in the canopy (F = 6,84; P = 0,01) and the length of the culm (F = 7,52; P = 0,01). The plant's morphology allowed the occurrence of additional species of ants in the canopy and influenced the composition of the entire ant assemblage.

Este trabalho objetivou explorar os padrões de distribuição das assembléias de formigas em resposta aos tipos estruturais de florestas no Parque Estadual do Rio Doce, MG. Foram comparadas bordas antropomórficas do parque e ecótones naturais, tais como orlas de lagoas com florestas, e florestas em bom estado de preservação. Investigou-se se a riqueza, a abundância de formigas e a composição de espécies modificam-se de acordo com os tipos estruturais de vegetação. Esperava-se maior riqueza de espécies no interior de mata alta, comparada com mata baixa ou ecótones. Além disso, testaram-se os efeitos da sazonalidade sobre as assembléias de formigas encontradas em cada vegetação estudada. Cada tipo vegetacional foi amostrado com no mínimo um transecto de 150 m de comprimento, somando-se 30 armadilhas pit-fall por transecto. Duas amostragens foram feitas, uma na estação seca (setembro de 2001) e outra na estação úmida (janeiro de 2002). Para ambas as estações, a mata alta apresentou a menor média de riqueza e abundância de formigas, fato que corrobora a predição de que ecótones podem apresentar maior diversidade alfa. A riqueza e abundância média de formigas não foram diferentes entre mata baixa e orla de lagoa, ou entre esses habitats e borda de floresta. Os resultados obtidos sugerem que a perda de espécies devido ao desflorestamento provavelmente é maior do que se pensava anteriormente, e que para se compreender os padrões de diversidade e distribuição de espécies de insetos em ecossistemas tropicais deve-se levar em conta um desenho amostral mais compreensivo.

This work aimed to explore the response of ant species assemblage to contrasting types of forests in a semideciduous stationary rainforest, in the Parque Estadual do Rio Doce, South Eastern Brazil. We compared antropomorphic borders of this park and natural ecotones, such as lake margins continuous with forests, as well as preserved forests far from ecotones. We investigated whether ground-dwelling ant species richness, abundance and composition would change according to forest types and ecotones. We expected greater species richness in interior tall forest, compared with low forest or ecotone habitats. In addition, we tested the effect of climate seasonality on ant assemblages found in each studied vegetation type. Each forest type was surveyed based on a minimum transect sampling unit of 150 m long summing up 30 pit-falls per unit. Two sampling events, one in dry season(September of 2001) and another in the rainy season (January of 2002) were performed. For both seasons, tall forest presented greater total number of ant species, however lower mean ant species and abundance per trap than other forest types, thus corroborating the prediction that ecotones might present high alpha diversity. Mean species richness and abundance did not differ between interior low forest and lake edge, or between these habitats and reserve border. In general, species composition were not clearly defined by forest types. Results here found suggest that species loss or community dominance by generalist species, eventually due to deforestation, is probably a much greater problem than previously thought. However, to understand patterns of insect species diversity and distribution in tropical ecosystem should be taken in account much more comprehensive, spatially explicit sampling designs.