ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE Assess the correlation between the sales of two drugs with no proven efficacy against covid-19, ivermectin and chloroquine, and other relevant variables, such as Google® searches, number of tweets related to these drugs, number of cases and deaths resulting from covid-19. METHODS The methodology adopted in this study has four stages: data collection, data processing, exploratory data analysis, and correlation analysis. Spearman’s method was used to obtain cross-correlations between each pair of variables. RESULTS The results show similar behaviors between variables. Peaks occurred in the same or near periods. The exploratory data analysis showed shortage of chloroquine in the period corresponding to the beginning of advertising for the application of these drugs against covid-19. Both drugs showed a high and statistically significant correlation with the other variables. Also, some of them showed a higher correlation with drug sales when we employed a one-month lag. In the case of chloroquine, this was observed for the number of deaths. In the case of ivermectin, this was observed for the number of tweets, cases, and deaths. CONCLUSIONS The results contribute to decision making in crisis management by governments, industries, and stores. In times of crisis, as observed during the covid-19 pandemic, some variables can help sales forecasting, especially Google® and tweets, which provide a real-time analysis of the situation. Monitoring social media platforms and search engines would allow the determination of drug use by the population and better prediction of potential peaks in the demand for these drugs.

RESUMO OBJETIVO Investigar a correlação entre as vendas de dois medicamentos sem eficácia comprovada no tratamento de covid-19, ivermectina e cloroquina, e outras variáveis relevantes: pesquisas no Google®, número de tweets relacionados aos medicamentos, casos e óbitos decorrentes da covid-19. MÉTODOS A metodologia adotada neste estudo se divide em quatro partes: coleta de dados; processamento dos dados; análise exploratória; e análise de correlação. Foi utilizado o método de Spearman para obter as correlações cruzadas entre cada par de variáveis. RESULTADOS Os resultados mostram similaridade entre os comportamentos das variáveis. Os picos ocorreram em períodos iguais ou próximos. A análise exploratória dos dados apontou que houve falta de cloroquina no período correspondente ao início das divulgações sobre a aplicação desses medicamentos para o tratamento da covid-19. Ambos os medicamentos apresentaram correlação alta e estatisticamente significativa com as demais variáveis analisadas. Também foi observado que algumas delas apresentaram maior correlação com as vendas de medicamentos quando assumiram defasagem temporal de um mês. No caso da cloroquina, isso ocorreu com a variável óbitos. No caso da ivermectina, ocorreu com as variáveis número de tweets, casos e óbitos. CONCLUSÕES Os resultados observados contribuem para a tomada de decisão durante a gestão de crises por parte de governo, indústrias e comércios. Em momentos de crises, como observado durante a pandemia, as variáveis mostraram que são capazes de auxiliar na previsão de vendas, em especial o Google® e os tweets, que proporcionam uma análise em tempo real da situação. Acompanhar as redes sociais e mecanismos de busca permitiria detecção de uso pela população e melhor previsão de potenciais picos de demanda desses medicamentos.

Abstract Paper aims The paper aims to analyze preparedness and response for epidemics and pandemics, taking as reference the COVID-19 pandemic, to provide a foundation for developing a preparedness and response protocol to guide Civil Defenses fighting against health threats. For this purpose, we present the results of interviews carried out with Brazilian Civil Defenses, evaluating the role and the type of responsibility (in charge or supportive) of 12 entities in four key areas: (i) awareness and training; (ii) surveillance; (iii) information and communication; (iv) logistics and supplies. Originality The role of Civil Defenses in health threats still needs to be explored in academia. We often see Civil Defenses working to reduce risks and damages suffered by the population in case of disasters such as floods, landslides, and fires. In this paper, we go deeper into Civil Defense’s role and show that its efforts can be headed to face biological disasters such as the COVID-19 pandemic. In this sense, the paper is original as it brings an innovative outlook on the role of Civil Defense, providing inputs for developing a preparedness and response protocol for epidemics and pandemics. Research method We analyze 12 Brazilian Civil Defenses from different States in Brazil. The results were gathered through 9 interviews via video call and three responses from a questionnaire that guided the interviews. We evaluated data from Civil Defenses individually, and then using content analysis, we categorized the data to structure the results and raise essential insights. Main findings Most of the actions taken by the Civil Defenses during the pandemic response included logistics-related activities such as storage, transportation, distribution of required supplies, and mobilization of supply operations. Implications for theory and practice The findings emphasize the capacity of Civil Defenses to act in a vast scope of disasters, including biological disasters. Also, this study helps practitioners to develop guidelines and protocols to support Civil Defense in preparedness and response activities to epidemics and pandemics.

Abstract Paper aims This paper analyzes the food aid supply and distribution for famine relief by the World Food Programme (WFP) in Ethiopia. Food insecurity has increasingly affected people around the world. Furthermore, the characteristics of the provision of humanitarian aid in insecure regions pose several additional challenges over traditional distribution planning (e.g., corruption, losses in last-mile distribution, security escorts). Originality Most previous studies addressing famine relief are qualitative, with only a handful including mathematical modeling as this work. Furthermore, we validate our mathematical model with data from a real problem setting. Research method We propose a stochastic transshipment network flow model to ensure the efficient allocation of limited resources. Main findings The results show high potential for cost savings and offer managerial insights to humanitarian logisticians on the food aid supply and distribution. Our findings indicate that policies in humanitarian logistics should focus on: (a) relaxing legislation for customs clearance of humanitarian supplies; (b) strengthening local market to increase local procurement; (c) implementing tools to enhance security; and (d) monitoring distribution to mitigate the impact of corruption. Implications for theory and practice The results suggest that optimizing food aid distribution in Ethiopia can save millions of people vulnerable to malnutrition.

Abstract Paper aims Considering that disaster preparedness is essential for a prompt and effective response, this paper presents a study to locate disaster relief supplies. Originality This paper marks the first time a multi-criteria stochastic methodology addresses humanitarian location problems. Research method We propose a multi methodology approach that employs an optimization model and a multi-criteria decision analysis. Based on logistics costs and penalties assigned for unmet demand, a stochastic model minimizes the total operational cost of opening distribution centers for pre-positioning disaster relief supplies. As decisions in humanitarian operations have multiple criteria and small differences in costs may not be significant by considering other criteria, we perform an analysis of the stochastic model solutions through Multi-criteria Decision Analysis. Main findings The findings show that the stochastics model leads to good results in uncertainty accommodation and that the consideration of qualitative and quantitative criteria improves decisions in humanitarian operations, especially when the supplies available are not enough to meet all the demand requirements. Implications for theory and practice The methodology was used by Civil Defense to locate warehouses for prepositioning relief supplies in Sao Paulo State, Brazil.

Nas últimas décadas, desastres naturais têm aumentado em número e intensidade. Organizações humanitárias têm procurado métodos para prevenção e preparação para desastres. Esta situação requer análise de desastres anteriores para que decisões sejam direcionadas às principais vulnerabilidades. Este trabalho objetiva auxiliar as políticas de prevenção e mitigação, por meio de programas de treinamento voltados a preparação para desastres no Brasil, considerando o perfil das populações afetadas. Estudos sobre vulnerabilidade e métodos de treinamento voltados para a prevenção de desastres são conduzidas, assim como análise estatística de dados sobre vítimas de desastres naturais em quatro estados brasileiros. Finalmente, métodos de treinamento são discutidos de acordo com as vulnerabilidades identificadas no estudo. As conclusões observam que programas e métodos de treinamento devem ser mais eficazes e direcionados no Brasil. Estes resultados podem ajudar na mitigação e prevenção de desastres nos estados analisados.

In past decades, disasters have increased in number and intensity. Humanitarian organizations have looked for approaches to prevent and to prepare for disasters. This situation requires the study of previous disasters so that decisions can target the main vulnerabilities. The purpose of this paper is to assist policies for prevention and preparedness through training programs for disaster preparation in Brazil considering the profile of the populations affected by disasters. Literature reviews of vulnerability studies and training methods focused on natural disasters prevention are conducted, and a statistical analysis of data on victims of natural disasters in four Brazilian states is carried out. Finally, training methods are discussed according to the vulnerabilities identified in the study. The conclusions note training programs and methods that should be more effective and targeted in Brazil. The findings can assist disaster mitigation and preparedness in the states studied.

En pasadas décadas los desastres han incrementado en número e intensidad. Organizaciones humanitarias han buscado métodos para la prevención y preparación ante desastres. Esto requiere el estudio de anteriores desastres, tal que las decisiones puedan enfocarse en las principales vulnerabilidades. Este trabajo tiene como objetivo impulsar las políticas de prevención y preparación a través de programas de capacitación orientados a la preparación ante desastres en Brasil, considerando el perfil de las poblaciones afectadas. Se conducen estudios sobre vulnerabilidad y métodos de capacitación en prevención de desastres naturales, y se realiza un análisis estadístico sobre las víctimas de desastres naturales en cuatro estados brasileros. Finalmente, se discuten métodos de capacitación de acuerdo a las vulnerabilidades identificadas en el estudio. Se concluye que los programas y métodos de capacitación deben ser más efectivos y orientados a Brasil. Estos resultados pueden ayudar a la mitigación y prevención de desastres en los estados analizados.