Problem: Preterm birth is the leading cause of death and can result in significant long-term loss of physical and psychological capacity among survivors.Background: An estimated 15 million babies are born preterm every year. Prediction models based on machine learning methods have reported promising results.Aims: To identify risk factors associated with preterm birth and to develop and validate a prediction model for this outcome in a Brazilian birth cohort.Methods: Cross-sectional study of all births that occurred in Ribeirão Preto-SP and of one in three births that occurred in São Luís-MA, Brazil, in 2010. Questionnaires were applied to obtain pregnancy-related data. Multivariate adaptive regression splines were used to determine the independent variables. Preterm birth, defined as birth before 37 weeks gestational age, was the dependent variable. A random forest model was developed and its performance was evaluated by ROC analysis.Findings: The preterm birth rates were 12.7% (RP) and 14.1% (SL). The prediction and validation accuracies of the RF-based model were 91.3% and 85.5% respectively. The model can be applied starting in the third month of gestation and is more effective in identifying preterm infants with GA<31 weeks and 6 days (AUC=0.98).Discussion: It was possible to build a prediction model based on easily accessible low-cost data, without the need for complementary tests, providing results similar to those of other studies.Conclusions: Previous preterm birth and prenatal care were determinants. The use of an application for individualized patient monitoring an early stage can have positive effects on the quality of life of mother and child.

Resumo O objetivo deste estudo foi comparar índice de coordenação, tempo propulsivo, duração das fases da braçada e parâmetros cinemáticos ao longo de 200 m nado crawl. Variáveis foram comparadas entre os quatro trechos de 50 m (T1 a T4) em quinze nadadores competitivos (idade: 21,1 ± 7,1 anos; estatura: 180,1 ± 6,1 cm; envergadura: 187,3 ± 8,1 cm; massa corporal: 72,1 ± 10,1 kg; melhor desempenho na prova: 77,5 ± 4,7% do recorde mundial). Obtiveram-se os dados com duas câmeras de vídeo (60 Hz - acopladas a um carrinho sobre trilhos na lateral da piscina), para imagens simultâneas do plano sagital do nadador: abaixo da linha da água e acima da linha da água. Frequência média de ciclos, comprimento de braçada (assumida como a distância média percorrida pelo corpo a cada ciclo) e velocidade média de nado foram obtidos com cronometragem manual. Ao longo dos 200 m, o índice de coordenação não se alterou (p > 0,05), mas houve incremento da frequência de ciclos (p < 0,05) e redução da distância percorrida por ciclo (p < 0,05). Entre T1 e T2, houve incremento do tempo propulsivo (p < 0,05) e entre T1 e T4, da duração da fase de puxada (p < 0,05). Velocidade de nado diminuiu apenas entre T1 e T2 (p < 0,05). Ao longo de 200 m nado crawl, nadadores bem treinados incrementam tempo propulsivo, duração da fase de puxada e frequência de ciclos de braçadas, tais mudanças podem ser devidas à tentativa de manutenção da velocidade ao longo dos 200 m.

Abstract The aim of this study was to compare coordination index, propulsive time, duration of stroke phases and kinematic parameters over 200 m front crawl. Variables were compared among four sections of 50 m (T1 to T4) in fifteen competitive swimmers (age: 21.1 ± 7.1 years; height: 180.1 ± 6.1 cm; height: 187.3 ± 8, 1 cm; body mass: 72.1 ± 10.1 kg; better performance in the race: 77.5 ± 4.7% of the world record). Data were obtained with two video cameras (60 Hz - coupled to a cart on rails on the side of the pool) for simultaneous images of the swimmer’s sagittal plan: below the water line and above the water line. Mean stroke rate stroke length, assumed as the mean distance traveled per cycle, and mean swimming speed were obtained with manual timing. Over the 200 m, the coordination index remained unchanged (p >0.05), but there was an increase in the frequency of cycles (p <0.05) and reduction of distance traveled per cycle (p <0.05). Between T1 and T2, there was an increase in the propulsive time (p <0.05) and between T1 and T4, there was an increase in the length of the pull phase (p <0.05). The swimming speed decreased only between T1 and T2 (p <0.05). Over 200 m front crawl, well-trained swimmers increment propulsive time and pull phase duration and frequency of stroke cycles, and such changes may be due to the speed maintenance attempt over the 200 m.

The effects of clastogenic or mutagenic agents have rarely been studied in neotropical fish species exposed to contaminated water. In this study, the genetic damage caused by lead in the widely distributed South American fish, Hoplias malabaricus, was assessed using the comet (SCGE) assay and by testing for chromosomal aberrations. Eighteen specimens were acclimatized to laboratory conditions and then chronically exposed to contaminated food by feeding prey (Cyprinus sp.) injected intraperitoneally with doses of inorganic lead adjusted to give a contamination level of 21 mg of Pb2+.g-1 net weight of H. malabaricus. Three fish were sampled for chromosomal analysis after four doses (18 days) and another three after eight doses (41 days) of lead and the results then compared with three untreated controls kept under lead-free conditions. An additional six treated fish and three controls were sampled for the comet assay after 13 doses (64 days). Exposure to lead significantly increased the frequency of chromosomal aberrations and the frequency of tailed cell nuclei, the latter indicating DNA damage. These results show that H. malabaricus is a useful biological model for screening the clastogenic effects of lead and possibly other xenobiotics. The genetic damage seen here illustrates the need to investigate the potential effects of heavy metals on fish species in South America.