The objective of this study is to evaluate the model of numerical forecast BRAMS (Brazilian Regional Atmospheric Modelling System) from the comparison between the forecast and observed rainfall (data of NCEP/NOAA (National Centers of Environmental Predictions/ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) and of TRMM satellite (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission)). The model used the initial conditions of global model of NCEP/NOAA e do CPTEC/INPE. Comparisons between predicted values and observed through were the root medium square error (RMSE) and of medium error (ME) for the forecast of rainfall of 24, 48, 72 and 96 hours, of the period November of 2008 to March of 2009. The results showed that the BRAMS model had better performance when treated with global model data from NCEP / NOAA compared with the outputs from the assimilation of the global model of CPTEC / INPE.
rainfall; numerical modeling; Amazônia
