Production records from 75,567 lactations of 40,941 Holstein cows in 561 herds from 1980 to 2002 were used. Predicted cow and sire breeding values from an animal model were used to estimate genetic trend considering the four selection paths connecting two generations. The variance component estimates and breeding value predictions were obtained using the MTDFREML program package. The model of analysis accounted for the fixed effects of herd-year-season of calving, genetic group, age of calving as covariate (linear and quadratic) and the random effects of animal, permanent environment and error. The greatest annual genetic gain estimate was 57.7kg/yr for the path of sires of bulls from 1986 to 1991. For the path of dams of bulls, estimates were negative and for dams of cows changed from negative from 1970 to 1985 to 16.9kg/yr, from 1986 to 1999. When all paths of selection were combined, estimated annual genetic gain from 1970 to 1999 was 6.71± 3.78kg, corresponding to 0.1% of the average production. Estimates of genetic trend were much less than theoretically possible.
dairy cattle; genetic trend; REML; animal model
