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Estimative prevalence of cerebral neoplasm of childhood from the capture-recapture method

The aim of the study was to estimate the prevalence and fatality rate of primary cerebral neoplasms among children between 1 and 15 years old, State of Bahia, Brazil,1995. It was a cross-sectional study which includes all cases of brain tumors diagnosed by several sources. From these cases the capture-recapture method was used to estimate the probable number of cases and measure the prevalence and confidence intervals at 95%. By this method it was estimated the existence of 87 cases (CI = 64 ; 111) of brain tumores in the State, being 72 (CI = 54 ; 91) in the capital. The estimated prevalence was 1.85/100 000 for children between 1 to 15 years old (CI = 1.36 ; 2.36/100 000) for the State, and 10.1/100,000 (CI = 7.58 ; 12.77/100,000) for the capital. The fatality rate was 5.4 percent (CI = 4% ; 8%), and 8.9% (CI = 7% ; 13%) for the capital and the State respectively. The capture-recapture method showed high precision to estimate the total number of cases. Possible causes of no diagnostic nor treatment of cerebral neoplasms are discussed.

primary cerebral neoplasms; prevalence; fatality rate; capture-recapture method


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