EXPLORATORY ANALYSIS OF POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF CLIMATIC CHANGE IN THE "VALES DA UVA GOETHE"

Abstract

The future of agriculture has been conditioned by uncertainties about the effects of climate change. Thus, the main goal of this work is to develop an exploratory analysis of the potential impacts of climate change in dynamics in the vitiviniculture in the region bounded by the Indication of Origin of Vales da Uva Goethe. The analysis was developed based on direct consultation at producers and production and climate data. The results indicate that only share of producers has related changes in the quantity and quality of the grapes to the effects of climate change. However, there was an actual change in climate. The average monthly minimum temperatures increased from 5.75°C to 8.30°C 1924-2012, which can increase the probability of occurrence of disease and pests associated with high average temperatures.

Key-words:
Climate change; Vales da Uva Goethe; Vitiviniculture