Fuzzy Modelling on the Evolution of COVID-19 Epidemic under the Effects of Intervention Measures

Abstract

This paper proposes to analyze how the intervention measures such as lockdown, partial lockdown and no-lockdown help to impede the spread of the severe outbreak of COVID-19 in Brazil. A p-fuzzy model, considering as input variables, the infected population and the intervention measures and as output variable the level of infestation, is proposed. The numerical results show that intervention measures play a crucial role in determining the success of COVID-19 eradication programs, while the population is being vaccinated in stages. Therefore, the model proposed assists government decision making in order to minimize the spread of the pandemic.

Keywords:
COVID-19; Fuzzy model; population dynamics; measure interventions.

HIGHLIGHTS

• The fuzzy approach shows that intervention measures impede the spread of COVID-19.

• Even with the vaccine, the infection rate could be worse if safety measures are to be weakened.

• Results assists government decision making in order to minimize the spread of the pandemic.

• Physical distancing measures together with vaccines can contain the resurgences of the disease.