Thresholds Are Everywhere: A Systems Approach to Public Policy

Carvalho, Hamilton Coimbra; Isabella, Giuliana; Mazzon, José Afonso

doi:10.1590/1807-7692bar2019180106

Hamilton Coimbra Carvalho

Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, SP, Brazil

Hamilton Coimbra Carvalho, Universidade de São Paulo, Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade, Av. Professor Luciano Gualberto, 908, 05508-010, São Paulo, SP, Brazil, hccarvalho@gmail.com. http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9799-5697

http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9799-5697

Giuliana Isabella

Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa, São Paulo, SP, Brazil

Giuliana Isabella, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa Rua Quatá, 300, Sala 609, Vila Olímpia, 04546-042, São Paulo, SP, Brazil, giuliana.isabella@gmail.com. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4502-4327

http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4502-4327

José Afonso Mazzon

Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, SP, Brazil

José Afonso Mazzon, Universidade de São Paulo, Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade, Av. Professor Luciano Gualberto, 908, 05508-010, São Paulo, SP, Brazil, jamazzon@usp.br. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1556-520X

http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1556-520X

Daniel Pacheco Lacerda was the associate editor for this article.

Editorial assistant: Luciane Kato Kiwara

Editor-in-chief: Carlo Gabriel Porto Bellini

Author contributions

1^st author: conceptualization (equal), data curation (lead), formal analysis (lead), methodology (lead), writing-original draft (equal), writing-review and editing (equal).

2^nd author: conceptualization (equal), investigation (equal), validation (equal), visualization (equal), writing-original draft (equal), writing-review and editing (equal).

3^rd author: conceptualization (equal), data curation (supporting), formal analysis (supporting), supervision (supporting), validation (supporting).

Hamilton Coimbra Carvalho, Universidade de São Paulo, Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade, Av. Professor Luciano Gualberto, 908, 05508-010, São Paulo, SP, Brazil, hccarvalho@gmail.com. http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9799-5697

Giuliana Isabella, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa Rua Quatá, 300, Sala 609, Vila Olímpia, 04546-042, São Paulo, SP, Brazil, giuliana.isabella@gmail.com. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4502-4327

José Afonso Mazzon, Universidade de São Paulo, Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade, Av. Professor Luciano Gualberto, 908, 05508-010, São Paulo, SP, Brazil, jamazzon@usp.br. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1556-520X

Archetype	Basic definition	Example
Limits to growth	All processes of growth will inevitably face barriers as the limit of the system is approached.	Environmental limits to economic growth.
Shifting the burden	Preference for symptomatic solutions that block the development of fundamental remedies.	Restrictions to the circulation of vehicles (road space rationing) versus congestion charges.
Eroding goals	Downward adjustment of goals in the face of degrading performance.	Pressure to lower the goals for educational policies.
Escalation	Escalation of threats between two parties.	Competition for market share between health providers.
Success to the successful	Good performance is rewarded with more resources, allowing one party to continue performing better than the underserved competitor.	Educational vouchers.
Tragedy of the commons	Depletion of common pool of resources as different groups compete to achieve their particular goals.	Depletion in fish stocks.
Fixes that fail	Preference for symptomatic solution that worsen the fundamental problem producing unintended consequences.	Building more roads to alleviate traffic congestion.
Seeking the wrong goal	A goal is established because it is easier to achieve or measure.	Incapacitating terrorists instead of addressing the root causes, such as poverty, corruption and despair.
Growth and underinvestment	Good performance followed by reluctance to invest in organizational capabilities.	Mismanagement of investments in the public health sector.
Accidental adversaries	A partnership that turns into bitter contentiousness.	Relationship between public and private organizations in health care settings.
Attractiveness principle	The existence of multiple barriers to growth, some more attractive to address than others.	Public agencies trying to address a barrier while neglecting other interdependent barriers.

Element of the framework	Implied questions	Suggested methods or strategies of inquiry
Endogeneity	What are the interrelationships (feedback loops) among variables involved in the problem? What are the sources of policy resistance?	System dynamics Agent-based modelling Network analysis Systems mapping Grounded theory Ethnography Case studies
Delays	What effects occur in the short and in the long run? Are there different effects over time?
Nonlinearities	What thresholds exist in the system? What kind of nonlinear relationships exist in the system?
Path dependence	What are the defining events that shaped the history of the system? What are the major constraints?
System archetypes	Which system archetype best fits the problem or the policy under analysis?
Power law	What kind or degree of concentration exists in the system? What are the barriers to lower the concentration?
Networks	What are the important networks in the system? Who are the opposing and supporting groups?
Evolving ecosystems	What forces drive the changes in the particular social ecosystem under analysis? Is inertia a particular concern? What threats and opportunities arise over time?
Legitimacy	Are there legitimacy concerns involving the policy? What are the thresholds in legitimacy (i.e., in the processes of gaining, maintaining or losing it) present?

Element of the framework	Concrete manifestation in the case
Endogeneity	Tax incentives attract businesses, creating an entire ecosystem that leads over time to the collection of more taxes, offsetting the initial disbursement. A system dynamics model shows the program generates returns seven times greater than its costs.
Delays	As a typical public policy, it takes time to produce results. Contrary to inefficient policies, in the case of the Brazilian WFP, the short-term effects are not opposite to long-term consequences.
Nonlinearities	Nonlinearities manifest in the existence of network effects, which lead to minimum viable levels for businesses and marked increase in the level of sophistication in the market for meals provision.
Path dependence	Once the policy's rules lead to the creation of an ecosystem, it is difficult to produce radical change. The program depends on tax incentives, which are difficult to increase or even eliminate. At the same time, inertia creates a powerful barrier to adaptation by participants in the different networks associated with the program.
Archetypes	The program fits nicely the Limits to Growth archetype, having failed so far to overcome the barriers that prevent its extension to workers from small businesses.
Power laws	Big firms concentrate the bulk of beneficiaries.
Networks	Networks integrated by government agencies, restaurants, service providers, unions, employers and employees interact, while also developing markets and trying to adapt to threats and opportunities. In practice, all networks have been supporting the program.
Evolving ecosystems	Constantly changing landscapes include the rise of obesity as the number one problem in public health. On the other hand, the ecosystem has evolved in the direction of sophistication and diversification.
Legitimacy	The program was forged on strong legitimacy pillars, but it faces threats inasmuch as it does not tackle the obesity problem and tighter public budgets call into question the opportunity costs of public policies. The alternative of providing cash instead of vouchers may also threaten the structure of the program. In any case, the threshold associated with declining legitimacy may be approached in the absence of proper management.

[1] Daniel Pacheco Lacerda was the associate editor for this article.

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Thresholds Are Everywhere: A Systems Approach to Public Policy

Abstract