Women and Candidate Quality in the Elections for the Senate: Brazil and the United States in Comparative Perspective

Bohn, Simone R.

doi:10.1590/1981-3831200700020003

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Article • Bras. Political Sci. Rev. 1 (2) • 2007 • https://doi.org/10.1590/1981-3831200700020003 copy

Women and Candidate Quality in the Elections for the Senate: Brazil and the United States in Comparative Perspective^* * This text was originally presented at the APSA Pre-Conference of the Women’s Caucus for Political Science, Washington D.C., Howard University, August 31, 2005. I thank all the participants for their comments. Special thanks go to Jennifer Merolla for her detailed comments and to Sueli Rodrigues for giving me the book about Brazilian women senators, from which this research originated. I also thank the blind reviewers for their useful comments.

Authorship SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

Abstract

The Senate remains as an almost uncharted territory for women. And not only in re-democratized countries like Brazil, but also in advanced democracies such as the USA. To date, 33 American and 28 Brazilian women have served in their Senates. Why are these numbers so reduced? This article discusses the key obstacles that women face and, through OLS and probit analyses, examines the degree of competitiveness and rate of success of all candidacies. We show that, even though women are thought to be weak contestants, they can be as competitive as men when they have a record of elected public positions. The reduced availability of the latter, however, indicates that they are still far from increasing their presence in the Senate.

Keywords:
Women; candidate quality; career; Senate; election

Brazil				USA
Age				Age
Mean	Std. Dev.	Min	Max	Mean	Std. Dev.	Min	Max
50.3	7.6	37	67	53.6	10.2	39	87
Educational level (%)				Educational level (%)
High School		College	Graduate School	High School		College	Graduate School
10.7		67.9	21.4	15.2		69.6	15.2
Ascension to the senate				Ascension to the senate
Deputy Senator		Elected		Appointed		Elected
(N) (%)		(N) (%)		(N) (%)		(N) (%)
14 50.0		14 50.0		10 30.3		23 69.7
Previous appointed positions				Previous appointed positions
No		Yes		No		Yes
(N) (%)		(N) (%)		(N) (%)		(N) (%)
16 57.1		12 42.9		22 66.7		11 33.3
Previous elected position				Previous elected positions
No		Yes		No		Yes
(N) (%)		(N) (%)		(N) (%)		(N) (%)
13 46.4		15 53.6		21 63.6		12 36.4

Brazil			USA
Party	(N)	(%)	Party	(N)	(%)
PT	8	28.6	Democrat	20	60,6
PP	6	21,4	Republican	13	39,4
PSDB	3	10,7
PMDB	3	10,7
PTB	2	7,1
PFL	2	7,1
PSOL	1	3,6
PSB	1	3,6
PPS	1	3,6
PDT	1	3,6
Total	28	100	Total	33	100

	Brazil (2002 election)			USA (2004 election)
	Educational Level (%)			Educational Level (%)
Gender	Middle School	High School	College	High School	College	Graduate School
Male	3.6	23.6	72.8	7.5	39.8	52.7
Female	0.0	15.1	84.9	0.0	58.6	41.4
	Previous elected positions				Previous elected positions
	No	Yes			No	Yes
Gender	(N) (%)	(N) (%)			(N) (%)	(N) (%)
Male	143 56.3	111 43.7			54 55.7	43 44.3
Female	23 69.7	10 30.3			38 67.9	18 32.1

Models	USA (2000, 2002 & 2004 elections)			Brazil (1994, 1998 & 2002 elections)
Variables	Total	Men	Women	Total	Men	Women
District size^a a District size is measured by the total number of votes on election day.	.00002^ p<.01, two-tailed test; (.00001)^b b The standard error is in parenthesis.	.00001 (.00001)	.00001^* ***** p<.001, two-tailed test. (.00000)	.00005^* ***** p<.001, two-tailed test. (.00000)	.00004^* ***** p<.001, two-tailed test. (.00000)	.000005^ p<.01, two-tailed test; (.00000)
Election type^c c Election type is a dummy variable in which open-seat races take the value of zero and races where there is an incumbent present take the value of one.	-1.2509^* * p<.05, two-tailed test; (.4803)	-.9795^* * p<.05, two-tailed test; (.4598)	-0.2375 (.1901)	-2.8599^* ***** p<.001, two-tailed test. (.5728)	-2.8435^* ***** p<.001, two-tailed test. (.5226)	-.0164 (.2163)
Constant	4.6809^* ***** p<.001, two-tailed test. (.5018)	4.1384^* ***** p<.001, two-tailed test. (.4805)	0.5030^* * p<.05, two-tailed test; (.1987)	7.8124^* ***** p<.001, two-tailed test. (.3971)	7.0555^* ***** p<.001, two-tailed test. (.3623)	.7569^* ***** p<.001, two-tailed test. (.1499)
(N)^d d or this specific regression, the unit of analysis is the state. Thirty-four states held senatorial elections in each of the last three races (the 2000, 2002 and 2004 elections) in the USA. All twenty-seven states of the Brazilian federation had senatorial races in each of the last three elections (the 1994, 1998 and 2002 elections).	102	102	102	81	81	81
Adj. R2	.1514	.0636	.1350	.6339	.6392	.0596

Country	Brazil (2002 election)					USA (2004 election)
Candidates	All (1)	Professional (II)	Amateur (III)	All (l-a)	All (l-b)	‘rofessional Republican (I l-a) (ll-b)	Professional Democrat (lll-a)	Amateur Republican (lll-b)	Amateur Democrat
Gender ^a a Gender is a dummy variable whose values are zero for men and one for women.	.4066 (1.3204)^b b The standard error is in parenthesis.			2.2309 (3.1415)	-2.1880 (3.3045)
Career ^c c Career is a dummy variable in which professional politicians (candidates with a record of elected public positions) take the value of one, and amateurs receive the value of zero.	8.8905^* ***** p<.001, two-tailed test. (1.0208)			11.0363^* ***** p<.001, two-tailed test. (1.6354)	9.5772^* ***** p<.001, two-tailed test. (1.8592)
Election type^d d Election type is a dummy variable in which open-seat races take the value of zero and races where there is an incumbent present take the value of one.	-11.160 (1.1301)	-.2725 (1.1349)	-.4608 (1.1436)	-9.2126^* * p<.05, two-tailed test; (3.7176)	-11.4314^ p<.01, two-tailed test; (3.9237)	-17.216^* ***** p<.001, two-tailed test. (3.1022)	-20.1068^* ***** p<.001, two-tailed test. (3.2935)	-17.9313^* ***** p<.001, two-tailed test. (3.1160)	-20.6494^* ***** p<.001, two-tailed test. (3.2632)
Incumbent^e e Incumbent candidates take the value of one, the others take the value of zero.	6.1328^* ***** p<.001, two-tailed test. (1.4929)			15.2483^ p<.01, two-tailed test; (4.4233)	16.9553^* ***** p<.001, two-tailed test. (4.6273)
(N) of candidates	-.2949^* * p<.05, two-tailed test; (.1293)	-.3189^* * p<.05, two-tailed test; (.1319)	-.3312^* * p<.05, two-tailed test; (.1326)	-2.0127^* * p<.05, two-tailed test; (.8071)	-2.8497^ p<.01, two-tailed test; (.8311)	-2.0140^* * p<.05, two-tailed test; (.8464)	-3.0353^ p<.01, two-tailed test; (.8817)	-2.0623^* * p<.05, two-tailed test; (.8522)	-2.9848^ p<.01, two-tailed test; (.8804)
Candidate’s educationf	.8174 (.7608)	.8207 (.7727)	.9222 (.7824)	5.5846^* * p<.05, two-tailed test; (2.1368)	6.6872^ p<.01, two-tailed test; (2.2248)	4.6356^* * p<.05, two-tailed test; (2.2712)	5.2519^* * p<.05, two-tailed test; (2.4144)	39.343 (2.2896)	5.6323^* * p<.05, two-tailed test; (2.3808)
Urbanization Rate	.0872 (.0804)	.1043 (.0821)	.1008 (.0826)	-.0035 (.1058)	-.1174 (.1117)	-.0922 (.1085)	-.2011 (.1156)	-.0916 (.1114)	-.2201 (.1172)
Income	-.0018 (.0122)	-.0033 (.0124)	-.0023 (.0125)	.0002 (.0003)	.0004 (.0004)	.0006 (.0004)	.0008^* * p<.05, two-tailed test; (.0004)	.0006 (.0004)	.0008^* * p<.05, two-tailed test; (.0003)
Population’s education	-.2583 (.6579)	-.2209 (.6707)	-.2782 (.6761)	.5832 (.4614)	.3886 (.4861)	.3189 (.4790)	.0630 (.5105)	.3362 (.4835)	.0999 (.5103)
Women		14.2633^* ***** p<.001, two-tailed test. (2.4578)	-10.7292^* ***** p<.001, two-tailed test. (1.7101)			30.2614^* ***** p<.001, two-tailed test. (4.5116)	24.2753^* ***** p<.001, two-tailed test. (5.2922)	-25.8588^* ***** p<.001, two-tailed test. (4.7334)	-26.9774^* ***** p<.001, two-tailed test. (5.0218)
Men		9.4102^* ***** p<.001, two-tailed test. (1.0251)	-9.5603^* ***** p<.001, two-tailed test. (1.0461)			24.6274^* ***** p<.001, two-tailed test. (3.1952)	23.6709^* ***** p<.001, two-tailed test. (3.5796)	-26.0658^* ***** p<.001, two-tailed test. (3.3215)	-22.3605^* ***** p<.001, two-tailed test. (3.8216)
PT	8.1565^* ***** p<.001, two-tailed test. (1.5045)	7.3000^* ***** p<.001, two-tailed test. (1.5513)	8.0920^* ***** p<.001, two-tailed test. (1.5220)
PSDB	6.3507^* ***** p<.001, two-tailed test. (1.7073)	6.6661^* ***** p<.001, two-tailed test. (1.7418)	6.6921^* ***** p<.001, two-tailed test. (1.7537)
PMDB	4.8585^ p<.01, two-tailed test; (1.5167)	6.1315^* ***** p<.001, two-tailed test. (1.5106)	6.1937^* ***** p<.001, two-tailed test. (1.5207)
PFL	8.4739^* ***** p<.001, two-tailed test. (1.7096)	9.4492^* ***** p<.001, two-tailed test. (1.7314)	9.3595^* ***** p<.001, two-tailed test. (1.7421)
Republican				13.3347^* ***** p<.001, two-tailed test. (3.0747)		14.7678^* ***** p<.001, two-tailed test. (3.1679)		14.3027^* ***** p<.001, two-tailed test. (3.2044)
Democrat					8.0597^* * p<.05, two-tailed test; (3.1537)		8.0969^* * p<.05, two-tailed test; (3.3392)		8.4342^* * p<.05, two-tailed test; (3.2639)
Constant	-1.2253 (5.7145)	-25.745 (5.8335)	73.000 (5.9189)	-234.174 (15.3660)	-160.240 (16.1324)	-14.9323^* ***** p<.001, two-tailed test. (15.9223)	-59.298 (16.9247)	138.846 (15.7279)	169.651 (16.5587)
Number of cases	289	289	289	122	122	122	122	122	122
Adj. R2	.5804	.5623	.5567	.7232	.6942	.6960	.6560	.6917	.6573

Country	Brazil (2002 election)					USA (2004 election)
Candidates	All (1)	Professional (II)	Amateur (III)	All (l-a)	All (l-b)	Professional Republican (ll-a) (ll-b)	Professional Democrat (lll-a)	Amateur Republican (lll-b)	Amateur Democrat
Gender ^a a Gender is a dummy variable whose values are zero for men and one for women.	.2849 (.3260)^b b The standard error is in parenthesis is:			1.2987^* * p<.05, two-tailed test; (.6242)	.8607 (.5037)
Career ^c c Career is a dummy variable in which professional politicians (candidates with a record of elected public positions) take the value of one, and amateurs receive the value of zero.	.8986^* ***** p<.001, two-tailed test. (.2503)			1.0053^ p<.01, two-tailed test; (.3268)	9923^* ***** p<.001, two-tailed test. (.2830)
Election type ^d d Election type is a dummy variable in which open-seat races take the value of zero and races where there is an incumbent present take the value of one.	-.1329 (.2829)	-.0582 (.2773)	-.1139 (.2743)	-1.3198^* * p<.05, two-tailed test; (.5955)	-1.2042^* * p<.05, two-tailed test; (.5354)	-2.3668^* ***** p<.001, two-tailed test. (.4915)	-2.1961^* ***** p<.001, two-tailed test. (.4383)	-2.3768^* ***** p<.001, two-tailed test. (.4991)	-2.2777^* ***** p<.001, two-tailed test. (.4514)
Incumbent ^e e Incumbent candidates take the value of one, the others take the value of zero.	.2936 (.2938)			1.8094^* * p<.05, two-tailed test; (.7060)	1.7580^ p<.01, two-tailed test; (.6346)
(N) of candidates	-.0291 (.0313)	-.0281 (.0311)	-.0314 (.0310)	.0978 (.1427)	.0019 (.1238)	.1005 (.1311)	.0032 (.1122)	.0355 (.1274)	-.0345 (.1125)
Candidate’s education ^f f Educational level is categorized differently for each country. In the USA, in ascending order, there are four groups: up to middle school, high school, college and graduate school. In Brazil, for reasons already mentioned, the latter group is not a category in itself.	.2695 (.2368)	.2784 (.2364)	.2936 (.2374)	10.712 (.5627)	.7881 (.4348)	.4725 (.4300)	.3730 (.3536)	.0275 (.4028)	.0812 (.3459)
Urbanization Rate	.0101 (.0189)	.0110 (.0190)	.0096 (.0188)	.01834 (.0209)	.0137 (.0183)	-.0051 (.0178)	-.0069 (.0156)	.0031 (.0176)	-.0017 (.0157)
Income	-.0005 (.0028)	-.0005 (.0028)	-.0004 (.0028)	.0000 (.0001)	.0000 (.0001)	.0001 (.0001)	.0001 (.0000)	.0000 (.0001)	.0001 (.0000)
Population’s education	-.0022 (.1597)	-.0046 (.1586)	-.0077 (.1588)	.0457 (.0918)	.0290 (.0886)	-.0046 (.0781)	-.0026 (.0743)	.0248 (.0787)	.0099 (.0758)
Women		1.6312^ p<.01, two-tailed test; (.4933)	-1.1422^ p<.01, two-tailed test; (.5399)			2.8236^* ***** p<.001, two-tailed test. (.7244)	2.6133^* ***** p<.001, two-tailed test. (.6677)	-1.3176^* * p<.05, two-tailed test; (.6687)	-1.5791^* ***** p<.001, two-tailed test. (.5835)
Men		.8540^ p<.01, two-tailed test; (.2462)	-.8863^* ***** p<.001, two-tailed test. (.2520)			1.9271^* ***** p<.001, two-tailed test. (.5301)	2.0587^* ***** p<.001, two-tailed test. (.4807)	-2.9435^* ***** p<.001, two-tailed test. (.8327)	-2.8298^* ***** p<.001, two-tailed test. (.7278)
PT	.7715^* * p<.05, two-tailed test; (.3142)	.7032^* * p<.05, two-tailed test; (.3162)	.8366^ p<.01, two-tailed test; (.3060)
PSDB	.6221 (.3496)	.6449 (.3520)	.6428 (.3504)
PMDB	.4010 (.3265)	.4526 (.3181)	.4645 (.3177)
PFL	1.1089^ p<.01, two-tailed test; (.3353)	1.1571^ p<.01, two-tailed test; (.3340)	1.1313^ p<.01, two-tailed test; (.3309)
Republican				1.9596^ p<.01, two-tailed test; (.6192)		1.6391^ p<.01, two-tailed test; (.5149)		1.5250^ p<.01, two-tailed test; (.4909)
Democrat					-1.0888^* * p<.05, two-tailed test; (.5196)		-.6988 (.4325)		-.6184 (.3931)
Constant	-3.0462 (1.5216)	-3.1398^* * p<.05, two-tailed test; (1.5213)	-21.162 (1.5112)	-11.4491^ p<.01, two-tailed test; (4.2241)	-7.9097^* * p<.05, two-tailed test; (3.1905)	-6.4058^* * p<.05, two-tailed test; (.2.9269)	-4.8652^* * p<.05, two-tailed test; (2.4762)	-26.239 (2.5618)	-18.485 (2.2980)
Number of cases	289	289	289	122	122	122	122	122	122
Adj. R2	.2734	.2769	.2674	.7187	.6612	.6641	.5995	.6674	.6070

USA (2004 election)
Election type Previous career	Against an incumbent				Open-seat race
Election type Previous career	Male (N=58)		Female (N=29)		Male (N=39)		Female (N=27)
Result	Defeated	Elected	Defeated	Elected	Defeated Elected		Defeated	Elected
Professional	84.2	15.8	60.0	40.0	10.3	89.7	23.1	76.9
Amateur	100.0	0.0	100.0	0.0	90.0	10.0	85.7	14.3
Pearson’s Chi2	.011		.001		.000		.001
Brazil (2002 ELECTION)
Election type	Against an incumbent				Open-seat race
Previous career	Male (N=211)		Female (N=23)		Male (N=43)		Female (N=10)
Result	Defeated	Elected	Defeated	Elected	Defeated	Elected	Defeated	Elected
Professional	65.3	34.7	28.6	71.4	68.8	31.2	33.3	66.7
Amateur	94.8	5.2	100.0	0.0	96.3	3.7	85.7	14.3
Pearson’s Chi2	.000		.000		.012		.09

USA
Election	Seats in dispute	Candidates			Elected
Year	Total	Men	Women	Ratio M/W	Men	Women	Ratio M/W
2000	34	151	24	6.3	28	6	4.7
2002	34	107	16	6.7	30	4	7.5
2004	34	113	20	5.6	29	5	5.8
Brazil
Election	Seats in dispute	Candidates				Elected
Year	Total	Men	Women	Ratio M/W	Men	Women	Ratio M/W
1994	54	214	18	11.9	51	3	17.0
1998	27	140	23	6.1	25	2	12.5
2002	54	273	34	8.0	46	8	5.7

Party	1994	1998	2002	Total (N)
PT	27.78	17.39	23.53	17
PSTU	5.56	17.39	17.65	11
PDT	11.11	8.70	0.00	4
PPS	0.00	4.35	8.82	4
PRONA	16.67	0.00	2.94	4
PSC	5.56	4.35	5.88	4
PTB	11.11	8.70	0.00	4
PMDB	5.56	0.00	5.88	3
PSB	0.00	0.00	8.82	3
PCdoB	5.56	0.00	2.94	2
PFL	0.00	4.35	2.94	2
PL	0.00	4.35	2.94	2
PRN	5.56	4.35	0.00	2
PRP	5.56	4.35	0.00	2
PSDB	0.00	0.00	5.88	2
PAN	0.00	4.35	0.00	1
PCO	0.00	0.00	2.94	1
PPB	0.00	4.35	0.00	1
PRTB	0.00	4.35	0.00	1
PSL	0.00	0.00	2.94	1
PSN	0.00	4.35	0.00	1
PtdoB	0.00	4.35	0.00	1
PTN	0.00	0.00	2.94	1
PV	0.00	0.00	2.94	1
Total (N)	18	23	34	75

Party	PT	PSDB	PMDB	PFL	PT	PSDB	PMDB	PFL
Election type ^a a Election type is a dummy variable in which open-seat races take the value of zero and races where there Is an incumbent present take the value of one.	-.1633 (1.2072)^b b The standard error is in parenthesis.	-.1273 (1.2187)	.0839 (1.2192)	-.1389 (1.1990)	-.3601 (1.2145)	-.3378 (1.2348)	-.1153 (1.2351)	-.3500 (1.2173)
(N) of candidates	-.3334^* * p<.05, two-tailed test; (.1405)	-.3635^* * p<.05, two-tailed test; (.1416)	-.3484^* * p<.05, two-tailed test; (.1416)	-.3609^* * p<.05, two-tailed test; (.1394)	-.3459^* * p<.05, two-tailed test; (.1411)	-.3873^ p<.01, two-tailed test; (.1431)	-.3718^* * p<.05, two-tailed test; (.1429)	-.3859^ p<.01, two-tailed test; (.1411)
Candidate’s education^c c Educational level is categorized differently for each country. In the USA, in ascending order, there are four groups: up to middle school, high school, college and graduate school. In Brazil, for reasons already mentioned, the latter group is not a category in itself.	1.3831 (.8180)	1.5241 (.8240)	1.4264 (.8254)	1.3778 (.8123)	1.4904 (.8271)	1.6690^* * p<.05, two-tailed test; (.8387)	1.5561 (.8403)	1.5279 (.8285)
Urbanization Rate	.1142 (.0875)	.1133 (.0883)	.1066 (.0883)	.1193 (.0869)	.1111 (.0879)	.1080 (.0893)	.1013 (.0893)	.1131 (.0881)
Income	-.0062 (.0133)	-.0036 (.0134)	-.0042 (.0134)	-.0030 (.0132)	-.0052 (.0133)	-.0019 (.01354)	-.0026 (.0135)	-.0014 (.0133)
Population’s	-.2699 (.7152)	-.3650 (.7211)	-.3404 (.7207)	-.3798 (.7099)	-.3307 (.7201)	-.4532 (.7308)	-.4211 (.7302)	-.4666 (.7210)
Women	17.6399^* ***** p<.001, two-tailed test. (2.5563)	19.2656^* ***** p<.001, two-tailed test. (2.4944)	19.1420^* ***** p<.001, two-tailed test. (2.4971)	19.0366^* ***** p<.001, two-tailed test. (2.4552)	-14.2405^* ***** p<.001, two-tailed test. (1.7236)	-13.9685^* ***** p<.001, two-tailed test. (1.7608)	-13.7703^* ***** p<.001, two-tailed test. (1.7721)	-13.2594^* ***** p<.001, two-tailed test. (1.7555)
Men	12.8317^* ***** p<.001, two-tailed test. (.9324)	12.6178^* ***** p<.001, two-tailed test. (.9683)	12.6572^* ***** p<.001, two-tailed test. (.9587)	11.9729^* ***** p<.001, two-tailed test. (.9722)	-12.9583^* ***** p<.001, two-tailed test. (.9565)	-12.9968^* ***** p<.001, two-tailed test. (.9936)	-13.0440^* ***** p<.001, two-tailed test. (.9809)	-12.4456^* ***** p<.001, two-tailed test. (.9940)
PT	4.3780^ p<.01, two-tailed test; (1.5786)				5.1700^ p<.01, two-tailed test; (1.5441)
PSDB		2.7699 (1.7699)				2.6349 (1.7909)
PMDB			2.5700 (1.5233)				2.5556 (1.5436)
PFL				5.7930^ p<.01, two-tailed test; (1.7154)				5.4547^ p<.01, two-tailed test; (1.7360)
Constant	-3.6361 (6.2142)	-3.8219 (6.2716)	-3.2844 (6.2742)	-3.8809 (6.1741)	9.6165 (6.2886)	9.6030 (6.3931)	10.1809 (6.3826)	9.0291 (6.3094)
Number of cases	289	289	289	289	289	289	289	289
Adj. R²	.5020	.4928	.4935	.5084	.4967	.4805	.4816	.4944

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E-mail: bpsr@brazilianpoliticalsciencareview.org

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[1] *
This text was originally presented at the APSA Pre-Conference of the Women’s Caucus for Political Science, Washington D.C., Howard University, August 31, 2005. I thank all the participants for their comments. Special thanks go to Jennifer Merolla for her detailed comments and to Sueli Rodrigues for giving me the book about Brazilian women senators, from which this research originated. I also thank the blind reviewers for their useful comments.