In studies of the impact of climate change on agroecosystems, it is important to quantify the effect of global warming on crop development. The objective of this study was to simulate the impact of increasing air temperature scenarios on the potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) development in Santa Maria, Rio Grande do Sul State. Climate change scenarios of increasing air temperature (+2 °C, +3 °C, +4 °C, +5 °C, and +6 °C) for the next 100 years were created with the LARS-WG Weather Generator using the 1969-2003 database in Santa Maria, RS, Brazil. Using a simulation model, the daily development rate and the date of the following development stages were calculated: emergence, tuber initiation, beginning of plant senescence, and crop harvest. Two potato planting dates were assumed, a Fall planting (10/02) and a Spring planting (20/07). An increase in air temperature led to a large increase (up to 42 days) and to a small decrease (5-8 days) in the duration of the emergence-harvest phase for the Fall and Spring plantings, respectively, depending upon the increase in air temperature. Intermediate developmental phases may be altered depending upon the growing season. The trends of potato development in different scenarios reflect the complexity of agroecossystems response to climate change.
Global warming; climate risk; climate forecast; phenology
