This paper presents a new methodology to evaluate the reliability of composite generation and transmission systems considering time varying loads. Based on non-sequential Monte Carlo simulation, the proposed method uses a special Markov load model to represent different chronological load patterns per area or bus. A new estimating process, named one step forward state transition, is proposed to evaluate LOLF (loss of load frequency) index, without assuming any coherent behavior in the system. Case studies using the MRTS (Modified IEEE Reliability Test System) and the SSB (Brazilian South-Southeastern System) are presented and discussed.
Composite reliability; Monte Carlo simulation; generation and transmission reliability; uncertainty modeling
