Abstract
Background
Health surveillance is a health care model that combines public health actions. To this end, it is fundamental to know the population dynamics processes that determine the demographic regime.
Objective
To describe the population dynamics in the past 15 years and analyze their projections for the next 15 years.
Method
This is an ecological study that analyzed and projected data from Brazil as a whole and its regions between 2000 and 2030. Indicators of age structure, longevity, and standard and level of mortality, birth and fertility were estimated for this period.
Results
In Brazil as a whole, mortality and fertility will continue to decline, with important differences between Brazilian regions. Difference in the rhythm of population aging, change in the pattern of fertility, and trend for mortality in the period are highlighted. The projections also evidence that there will be no reduction in these regional inequalities in the short term.
Conclusion
It is discussed that health surveillance needs to combine the complex dimensions of the health-disease process related to these changes, building intersectoral public policies that incorporate social determinants of health as territorial conformers in the context of demographic and epidemiological transitions.
Keywords:
public health; demography; health surveillance; territory; public policy
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