SUMMARY
A quantitative approach of predicting the growth and yield of natural forests is described and applied. The method proposed aimed at helping the forest manager in decision making concerning the choice of an appropriate cutting cycle. The approach is based upon the transition matrix model. The data used in the simulation model constructed in this study came from a natural forest in Japan remeasured during 10 years. The parameters necessary for implementation of the method are: the transition matrix of diameter classes, mortality and recruitment estimates for the forest under natural condition and open canopy, and the acceleration of growth rate due to human interference in the stand. The application of the model is demonstrate showing its potential utilization in simulating the effect of different cutting intensities. It was concluded that the model proposed might be a valuable tool for the manager to predict the growth and cutting cycle of logged uneven-aged forests.
Key words:
Dynamics; natural forest; model; simulation; transition matrix