FIRE BEHAVIOUR IN DIFFERENT PERIODS AND CONFIGURATIONS OF A LANDSCAPE IN NORTHEASTERN PORTUGAL

ABSTRACT

In this study, we discuss the importance of land use, land cover planning and forest stand management in fire hazard reduction, through the analysis of fire behavior in relation to landscape changes in Deilão, northeastern Portugal. Markov chains and cellular automata model were used to project future landscapes whose structures were quantified by landscape metrics. The FlamMap model was used to simulate fire behavior. According to landscape metrics from Fragstats, we observed that scenarios and projections in Deilão have a trend towards landscape simplification, which may facilitate the occurrence of larger, more severe fires. The analyses indicate an increased fire hazard trend in the region, largely caused by the continuity of forest cover. To avoid such impacts, forest management and landscape plannig should be modified in order to reduce the accumulation of combustible materials.

Keywords:
Markov chains; cellular automata; landscape ecology, forest management