Development and internal validation of a clinical prediction model for spontaneous abortion risk in early pregnancy

Li, Junqing; Yang, Jimei; Lv, Min; Wang, Xiang; Chen, Zhijing; Zhou, Na; Hou, Xuetao; Song, Zhen

doi:10.1016/j.clinsp.2023.100318

Junqing Li

drafted the manuscript

reviewed and approved the final version of the manuscript prior to submission

Imaging Diagnosis Department, Jinan Second Maternal and Child Health Hospital, Jinan City, Shandong Province, China

1 Both authors contributed equally as the first authors.

http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0760-0191

Jimei Yang

collected data

reviewed and approved the final version of the manuscript prior to submission

Imaging Diagnosis Department, Jinan Second Maternal and Child Health Hospital, Jinan City, Shandong Province, China

1 Both authors contributed equally as the first authors.

Min Lv

conceived and designed the study

reviewed and approved the final version of the manuscript prior to submission

Psychological Clinic, Jinan Second Materna and Child Health Hospital Jinan City, Shandong Province, China

Xiang Wang

analyzed the data

reviewed and approved the final version of the manuscript prior to submission

Imaging Diagnosis Department, Jinan Second Maternal and Child Health Hospital, Jinan City, Shandong Province, China

Zhijing Chen

collected data

reviewed and approved the final version of the manuscript prior to submission

Psychological Clinic, Jinan Second Materna and Child Health Hospital Jinan City, Shandong Province, China

Na Zhou

reviewed and approved the final version of the manuscript prior to submission

Clinical Lab, Jinan Second Maternal and Child Health Hospital, Jinan City, Shandong Province, China

Xuetao Hou ^**Corresponding author. E-mail address: 15163442503@163.com (X. Hou).

conceived and designed the study

reviewed and approved the final version of the manuscript prior to submission

Department of Gynecology and Obstetrics, Jinan Second Maternal and Child Health hospital, Jinan City, Shandong Province, China

Zhen Song

analyzed the data

reviewed and approved the final version of the manuscript prior to submission

Imaging Diagnosis Department, Jinan People’s Hospital, Jinan City, Shandong Province, China

*Corresponding author. E-mail address: 15163442503@163.com (X. Hou).

Declaration of Competing Interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest. References

1
Both authors contributed equally as the first authors.

	Normal pregnancy (n = 9306)	Spontaneous abortion (n = 589)	t/χ²	p-value
Age	30.60 ± 5.98	33.03 ± 6.12	9.51	<0.001
BMI			9.13	0.010
≤18.4	2938	210
18.5~27.9	3472	184
≥28.0	2896	195
Educational level			0.01	0.917
Below the university	4672	297
University and above	4634	292
Monthly household income			0.96	0.328
<10,000 RMB	4657	307
≥10,000 RMB	4649	282
Fetal number			2.19	0.534
1	3064	177
2	3119	197
≥3	3123	215
History of embryonic arrest			3427.87	<0.001
0	8373	68
1	563	220
2	345	177
≥3	25	124
Number of abortions			53.89	<0.001
0	3112	177
1	3604	202
2	2117	139
≥3	473	71
High blood pressure			0.03	0.867
No	8274	525
Yes	1032	64
Thyroid dysfunction			19.05	<0.001
No	9087	558
Yes	219	31
Diabetes			7.32	0.007
No	9008	558
Yes	298	31
Polycystic ovary syndrome			5.44	0.020
No	8858	548
Yes	448	41
Assisted reproduction			34.47	<0.001
No	9262	575
Yes	44	14
Smoking history			4.27	0.039
No	9181	575
Yes	125	14
Drinking history			11.62	<0.001
No	8692	571
Yes	614	18
Exposure to pollution sources			8.84	0.003
No	4743	263
Yes	4563	326
Often stay up late			1.64	0.200
No	4708	314
Yes	4598	275
Recent home decoration			10.46	0.001
No	4605	251
Yes	4701	338

	Normal pregnancy (n = 9306)	Spontaneous abortion (n = 589)	t/χ²	p-value
Depression			21.00	<0.001
Normal	1852	80
Mild	1892	132
Moderate	1883	107
Severe	1863	126
Extremely severe	1816	144
Anxiety			11.50	0.021
Normal	1844	97
Mild	1870	122
Moderate	1826	146
Severe	1871	111
Extremely severe	1895	113
Stress			20.63	<0.001
Normal	1862	77
Mild	1835	118
Moderate	1837	144
Severe	1929	123
Extremely severe	1843	127

	B	S	Wald χ²	p-value	OR	95%CI
Age	0.069	0.009	57.819	0.000	1.072	1.053	1.091
BMI	-0.091	0.069	1.749	0.186	0.913	0.798	1.045
Number of abortions	-0.116	0.095	1.495	0.221	0.890	0.739	1.072
History of embryonic arrest	2.214	0.071	962.219	0.000	9.153	7.958	10.528
Thyroid dysfunction	2.141	0.244	76.837	0.000	8.512	5.273	13.739
Diabetes	-0.474	0.271	3.048	0.081	0.623	0.366	1.060
Polycystic ovary syndrome	1.617	0.213	57.833	0.000	5.036	3.320	7.639
Assisted reproduction	2.550	0.380	45.091	0.000	12.813	6.086	26.975
Smoking history	1.007	0.372	7.338	0.007	2.739	1.321	5.676
Drinking history	0.287	0.288	0.997	0.318	1.333	0.758	2.344
Exposure to pollution sources	0.298	0.111	7.211	0.007	1.347	1.084	1.674
Recent home decoration	0.269	0.112	5.784	0.016	1.309	1.051	1.630
Depression	0.131	0.040	10.900	0.001	1.140	1.055	1.232
Anxiety	-0.028	0.039	0.497	0.481	0.973	0.900	1.051
Stress	0.131	0.040	10.497	0.001	1.140	1.053	1.233

[1] *Corresponding author. E-mail address: 15163442503@163.com (X. Hou).

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Development and internal validation of a clinical prediction model for spontaneous abortion risk in early pregnancy

Abstract

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Methods:

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HIGHLIGHT