Informality in Latin America: a panel vector autoregression analysis

Gomes, Thiago Geovane Pereira; Besarria, Cassio da Nóbrega; Silva, José Alderir da

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Artigos complementares • Cad. Metropole 25 (58) • Sep-Dec 2023 • https://doi.org/10.1590/2236-9996.2023-5811 copy

Informality in Latin America: a panel vector autoregression analysis

Authorship SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

Abstract

Knowing the size, dynamics and main causes of informality is essential for the adoption of feasible public policies. Thus, in order to contribute to the literature, this article intends to analyze the behavior of informality in a sample of Latin American countries between 2002 and 2015. The empirical strategy will use the Panel Vector Autoregression (VAR) method to circumvent endogeneity problems between level of informality and its main determinants. The results of the estimation of Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) and the analyses of Impulse Response Functions (IRF) highlight the negative effect of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita on informality and the positive effects of unemployment rate and taxes on the size of informal economy in relation to the official GDP.

informality; Latin America; panel VAR

Países	2000	2005	2010	2015	2000-2015 (Média)
Alemanha Argentina Bolívia Brasil Chile Colômbia Costa Rica El Salvador Estados Unidos Guatemala⁵ Honduras México Nicarágua Paraguai Peru República Dominicana Uruguai	0.74 0.33 0.47 0.27 0.65 0.42 0.61 0.35 1.70 0.14 0.17 0.46 0.43 0.28 0.98 0.35 0.39	0.77 0.34 0.57 0.30 0.63 0.41 0.75 0.43 1.73 0.13 0.18 0.58 0.43 0.14 1.26 0.42 0.33	0.89 0.30 0.75 0.41 0.59 0.82 0.80 0.26 1.86 0.01 0.18 0.67 0.47 0.37 0.80 0.41 0.32	0.76 0.31 0.79 0.38 0.54 0.90 0.77 0.21 1.86 0.02 0.15 0.70 0.50 0.33 0.74 0.36 0.28	0.8 0.32 0.61 0.34 0.60 0.63 0.74 0.32 1.8 0.07 0.17 0.61 0.46 0.28 0.96 0.39 0.33
Média	0,51	0,55	0,58	0,56	0,55

Ano	ARG	BOL	BRA	CHL	COL	CRI	ELS	GUA	HND	MEX	NIC	PAR	PER	REP	URU
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015	19.59 15.36 13.52 11.51 10.08 8.47 7.84 8.65 7.71 7.18 7.22 7.10 7.27 7.75	2.93 2.94 2.90 2.84 2.73 2.63 2.60 2.86 2.55 2.22 2.05 2.39 2.01 3.07	9.37 9.99 9.10 9.57 8.64 8.33 7.34 8.52 7.74 6.92 7.19 6.98 6.66 8.43	10.17 9.77 10.16 9.34 9.02 8.43 9.28 11.31 8.42 7.34 6.66 6.21 6.66 6.51	15.63 14.19 13.72 11.87 11.53 11.20 11.27 12.07 10.98 10.11 9.74 9.05 8.57 8.30	6.33 6.56 6.39 6.57 5.74 4.49 4.78 7.71 7.17 10.14 9.78 8.77 9.06 9.00	5.73 6.26 6.05 7.22 6.57 6.41 5.88 7.33 4.89 4.30 3.84 3.69 4.15 4.00	2.80 2.81 2.97 3.01 2.99 2.99 3.04 3.35 3.50 3.12 2.77 3.02 2.72 2.51	4.02 5.30 5.99 4.91 3.58 3.21 3.16 3.29 4.12 4.47 3.75 4.10 5.49 6.15	3.00 3.45 3.94 3.56 3.57 3.63 3.87 5.36 5.30 5.17 4.89 4.91 4.81 4.31	7.59 7.60 6.41 5.37 5.31 4.89 6.20 8.16 7.83 6.45 5.21 5.28 4.52 4.70	9.39 6.81 6.51 4.82 5.28 4.71 4.41 5.46 4.57 4.67 4.09 4.39 5.03 4.56	5.80 4.79 4.90 4.86 4.26 4.19 4.06 3.90 3.48 3.44 3.11 3.24 2.96 3.00	6.78 6.94 6.30 6.59 5.66 5.16 4.76 5.47 5.21 6.09 6.72 7.35 6.72 7.61	16.65 16.66 12.98 12.01 10.84 9.40 8.03 7.74 7.16 6.31 6.45 6.44 6.55 7.49
Média	9,95	2,62	8,20	8,52	11,3	7,32	5,45	2,97	4,40	4,5	6,11	5,3	4,00	6,24	9,62

Países	1980	1990	2000	2010	2015
Argentina Bolívia Brasil Chile Colômbia Costa Rica El Salvador Guatemala Honduras México Nicarágua Paraguai Peru República Dominicana Uruguai	0,416 0,526 0,560 0,500 0,588 – – – – 0,519 – 0,435 0,562 – 0,425	0,431 0,545 0,606 0,574 0,549 0,453 – – 0,574 0,552 – 0,398 0,479 – 0,442	0,510 0,622 0,592 0,614 0,578 0,474 0,515 0,542 – 0,556 – 0,540 0,493 0,515 0,440	0,450 0,545 0,510 0,543 0,560 0,482 0,435 – 0,531 0,466 – 0,500 0,450 0,473 0,435	– 0,467 0,519 0,444 0,511 0,484 0,406 – 0,496 – – 0,476 0,434 0,452 0,401

Países	1990	1995	2000	2005	2010
Argentina Bolívia Brasil Chile Colômbia Equador México Paraguai Peru Uruguai Venezuela	20,91 13,68 63,25 39,54 29,47 – 35,04 14,11 – 14,79 21,59	35,80 94,50 71,74 33,41 99,22 30,05 51,90 56,00 43,81 17,15 32,87	39,68 376,92 66,65 34,57 361,62 48,84 41,73 46,09 34,38 19,33 41,02	34,26 100,31 48,55 26,73 39,17 45,80 34,10 32,08 32,78 20,56 64,28	22,21 32,19 42,74 24,83 42,14 28,20 25,72 35,15 23,05 17,99 –

Ano	ARG	BOL	BRA	CHL	COL	CRI	ELS	GUA	HND	MEX	NIC	PAR	PER	REP	URU
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015	-10.89 8.84 9.03 8.85 8.05 9.01 4.06 -5.92 10.13 6.00 -1.03 2.41 -2.51 2.73	2.49 2.71 4.17 4.42 4.80 4.56 6.15 3.36 4.13 5.20 5.12 6.80 5.46 4.86	3.05 1.14 5.76 3.20 3.96 6.07 5.09 -0.13 7.53 3.97 1.92 3.00 0.50 -3.55	3.11 4.09 7.21 5.74 6.32 4.91 3.53 -1.56 5.84 6.11 5.32 4.05 1.77 2.30	2.50 3.92 5.33 4.83 6.72 6.74 3.28 1.14 4.49 6.95 3.91 5.13 4.50 2.96	3.29 4.26 4.34 3.87 7.24 8.17 4.65 -0.97 4.95 4.31 4.80 2.27 3.52 3.63	1.58 1.56 0.89 2.71 4.34 1.86 2.57 -2.09 2.11 3.82 2.81 2.24 1.71 2.40	3.87 2.53 3.15 3.26 5.38 6.30 3.28 0.53 2.87 4.16 2.97 3.70 4.44 4.09	3.75 4.55 6.23 6.05 6.57 6.19 4.23 -2.43 3.73 3.84 4.13 2.79 3.06 3.84	-0.04 1.45 3.92 2.31 4.50 2.29 1.14 -5.29 5.12 3.66 3.64 1.35 2.85 3.29	0.75 2.52 5.31 4.28 4.15 5.08 3.44 -3.29 4.41 6.32 6.50 4.93 4.79 4.79	-0.02 4.32 4.06 2.13 4.81 5.42 6.36 -0.26 11.14 4.25 -0.54 8.42 4.86 3.08	5.45 4.17 4.96 6.29 7.53 8.52 9.13 1.10 8.33 6.33 6.14 5.85 2.38 3.25	4.50 -1.35 2.57 9.43 9.17 7.42 3.21 0.95 8.34 3.13 2.72 4.88 7.05 6.93	-7.73 0.81 5.00 7.46 4.10 6.54 7.18 4.24 7.80 5.16 3.54 4.64 3.24 0.37
Média	3,5	4,6	3,0	4,2	4,5	4,2	2,0	3,6	4,0	2,2	3,9	4,2	5,7	4,9	3,7

Ano	ARG	BOL	BRA	CHL	COL	CRI	ELS	GUA	HND	MEX	NIC	PAR	PER	REP	URU
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015	26.19 25.37 24.32 23.21 22.63 21.93 21.87 22.97 21.64 20.80 21.62 21.57 22.02 24.99	68.82 69.01 66.74 65.64 61.77 59.97 54.65 58.40 55.06 51.82 49.64 48.18 46.93 45.98	38.50 38.89 37.29 38.47 37.62 37.05 35.16 36.90 34.55 33.06 32.71 32.56 33.01 35.22	18.34 17.80 16.86 16.16 15.67 15.10 14.09 14.47 14.06 12.96 12.64 12.79 12.72 13.16	37.97 35.87 35.30 33.98 31.79 30.89 29.82 31.24 30.71 27.60 27.34 26.77 25.99 25.25	25.09 24.11 24.00 23.06 22.12 22.20 21.30 24.33 24.60 24.72 23.76 23.81 23.41 19.24	44.19 43.53 42.21 42.74 42.34 40.93 40.05 45.73 44.69 42.77 42.72 41.78 41.30 42.60	55.29 56.06 53.47 53.12 50.46 49.68 50.47 53.26 52.23 51.76 50.62 50.48 47.82 46.88	49.28 49.36 47.36 44.37 42.68 41.14 40.97 45.48 44.90 41.96 42.12 42.37 39.51 37.68	30.99 30.84 29.81 29.47 28.53 30.65 29.82 32.65 31.15 30.25 29.52 30.05 29.14 28.07	43.50 43.68 43.72 41.78 42.11 41.40 41.79 42.91 42.76 40.90 40.12 38.47 38.58 39.51	40.32 37.60 36.34 35.42 35.19 33.96 32.34 36.18 31.72 30.65 33.87 30.78 29.42 31.66	56.43 56.65 53.50 54.68 51.36 48.83 46.08 47.70 43.04 40.42 39.73 39.53 40.18 41.53	33.68 31.94 32.34 32.95 30.78 32.24 31.26 33.10 30.71 30.48 30.58 29.02 27.60 27.97	46.33 43.18 40.74 39.93 39.92 31.94 30.20 30.72 27.32 25.68 23.25 22.49 20.59 20.38
Média	22,94	57.33	35.79	14.77	30.75	23.27	42.68	51.54	43.51	30.07	41.52	33.96	47.12	31.05	31.62

Variáveis	Símbolo	Fonte
Tamanho da informalidade em relação PIB oficial Taxa de desemprego Educação Superior Patentes PIB per capita Renda Nacional per capita Imposto de renda sobre o lucro Imposto de renda sobre o capital	inf u EducS Paten y Y taup tauk	Medina & Schneider (2018)MEDINA, L.; SCHNEIDER, F. (2018). Shadow economies around the world: what did we learn over the last 20 years? IMF Working Paper. WDI (2019) Barro & Lee (2013)BARRO, R. J.; LEE, J. W. (2013). A new data set of educational attainment in the world, 1950-2010. Journal of development economics. Elsevier, v. 104, pp. 184-198. WDI (2019) WDI (2019) WDI (2019) WDI (2019) WDI (2019)

Variáveis independentes	Variáveis dependentes
Variáveis independentes	inf _t-1	EducS _t-1	u _t-1	taup _t-1	y _(t-1)
EducS _(t-1)	-0,0062 (0,0110)	0,3506*** (0,0703)	0,0946* (0,0358)	-0,1238*** (0,0260)	0,0106 (0,0085)
u _(t-1)	0,0076 (0,023)	0,0560* (0,3324)	-0,0945 (0,0704)	0,0515 (0,0322)	-0,0010 (0,0159)
taup _(t-1)	0,0626*** (0,018)	0,0657 (0,0433)	0,0939** (0,0305)	-0,1312** (0,0399)	-0,0178 (0,0072)
y _(t-1)	-0,6712*** (0,1441)	0,2355 (0,1750)	-1,8001*** (0,4228)	-0,7666** (0,2594)	0,4525*** (0,1051)
inf _(t-1)	-0,3666*** (0,055)	-0,1036 (0,0798)	-0,2223 (0,2121)	-0,8711*** (0,1696)	0,1405** (0,0424)

Variável de resposta e horizonte de previsão	Variáveis de impulso
Variável de resposta e horizonte de previsão	EducS _t-1	u _t-1	taup _t-1	y _t-1	inf _t-1
EducS _t-1 2 6 10	0,9915 0,9904 0,9904	0,0001 0,0002 0,0002	0,0029 0,0030 0,0030	0,0046 0,0055 0,0056	0,0008 0,0009 0,0009
u _t-1 2 6 10	0,0025 0,0027 0,0028	0,9249 0,9194 0,9195	0,0023 0,0023 0,0024	0,0675 0,0698 0,0698	0,0025 0,0056 0,0056
taup _t-1 2 6 10	0,0478 0,0479 0,0480	0,0094 0,0093 0,0094	0,8593 0,8479 0,8480	0,0009 0,0017 0,0018	0,0823 0,0929 0,0930
y _t-1 2 6 10	0,0166 0,0188 0,0190	0,2718 0,2706 0,2707	0,0034 0,0036 0,0037	0,6844 0,6827 0,6830	0,0235 0,0241 0,0241
inf _t-1 2 6 10	0,0067 0,0079 0,0080	0,1728 0,1729 0,1730	0,0148 0,0161 0,0200	0,2791 0,2801 0,2801	0,5266 0,5230 0,5230

Variáveis independentes	Variáveis dependentes
Variáveis independentes	EducS_t-1	u_t-1	taup_t-1	y_t-	inf_t-1
EducS_t-1 u_t-1 taup_t-1 y_t-1 inf_t-1 Todas	– 2,830* 2,304 1,811 1,686 9,212*	6,982* – 9,504 18,138* 1,098 32,721**	22,670* 2,551 – 8,732 26,372* 41,983*	1,565 0,004 6,150 – 11,003* 23,667***	0,317 0,113 12,537* 21,696* – 58,049***

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