Multidimensionality of agricultural grain road freight price: a multiple linear regression model approach by variable selection

Multidimensionalidade do preço de frete rodoviário de grãos agrícolas: uma abordagem de um modelo de regressão linear múltipla por seleção de variáveis

ABSTRACT:

The road system is the main mode used for the transportation of agricultural cargo, and in some cases, it is the only option for handling this type of product. This dependence means that the implementation of tools to support the management of logistical costs can reduce the financial impact with the transport felt by the economic agents operating in the soybean chain. This study contributed to a better understanding of the variables that make up the cost of road freight, generating a system of road freight prediction from a multiple linear regression model using the selection of variables Stepwise, Forward, and Backward elimination. This being said, this research intends to evaluate whether the behavior of soybean road freight is influenced by the variables that make up the productive, economic, and infrastructure dimensions in price formation. The regression models had an explanatory power of 87.20%. In the infrastructure dimension, the most impact variable in soybean road freight was the distance traveled; in the economic dimension, the variables of inflation and fuel price stood out; while in the productive dimension, the main contribution was the volume of production. A more assertive predictability of logistical costs and better understanding of the dynamics of freight price formation helps industry agents in planning and decision-making. Another contribution of this study is that it can be used as a practical tool for predicting soybean road freight on several transportation routes.

Key words:
agroindustrial logistics; predictive models; transport routes; price behavior