Analysis of the female mortality trend due to assault in Brazil, States and Regions

Leite, Franciele Marabotti Costa; Mascarello, Keila Cristina; Almeida, Ana Paula Santana Coelho; Fávero, Juliana Lopes; Santos, Andréia Soprani dos; Silva, Inácio Crochemore Mohnsam da; Wehrmeister, Fernando César

doi:10.1590/1413-81232017229.25702016

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ARTICLE • Ciênc. saúde colet. 22 (9) • Sept 2017 • https://doi.org/10.1590/1413-81232017229.25702016 copy

Analysis of the female mortality trend due to assault in Brazil, States and Regions

Authorship SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

Abstract

This study aimed to analyze time trend of female mortality due to assault in Brazil, regions and states from 2002 to 2012. This is an ecological times series study with secondary data from women aged 20-59 years who died due to assault. Mortality rates were analyzed by simple linear regression and stratified by region, Gini Index and Human Development Index (HDI). The trend of female rate of mortality due to assault was stable in the country, with differences between states and regions. The Midwest had the highest rates and stagnation trend. There was an increased trend in the North, Northeast and South and a decreased trend in the Southeast. The states of the tertile with the highest HDI evidenced a declining trend and stabilization in the first and second tertiles. An increased mortality rate was recorded in states with greater social inequality. Notwithstanding the national stabilization behavior, results point to the need for social policies appropriate to the specificities of states and regions.

Violence against women; Assault; Mortality rate; Time series studies; Mortality records

State	GINI index (tertile)	HDI (tertile)	Standardized mortality rate			Coefficient of regression* (CI 95 %**)	Annual variation***

			2002	2007	2012
North
Acre	0.63 (3)	0.663 (1)	6.08	7.29	5.86	0.15 (-0.32;0.35)	2.46
Amazonas	0.65 (3)	0.674 (2)	3.43	4.54	8.65	0.40 (0.17;0.62)	11.94
Amapá	0.60 (2)	0.708 (2)	10.17	9.83	7.05	-0.39 (-0.83;-0.38)	-3.83
Rondônia	0.56 (1)	0.690 (2)	10.48	4.96	7.79	-0.23 (-0.64;0.18)	2.19
Roraima	0.63 (3)	0.707 (2)	4.15	6.59	4.77	0.09 (-0.17;0.37)	2.16
Tocantins	0.60 (2)	0.699 (2)	4.77	5.60	10.12	0.46 (0.08;0.83)	9.64
Pará	0.62 (2)	0.646 (1)	3.85	6.11	7.95	0.40 (0.30;0.49)	10.38
Northeast
Alagoas	0.63 (3)	0.631 (1)	7.57	9.38	11.09	0.42 (0.14;0.70)	5.54
Bahia	0.62 (2)	0.660 (1)	2.31	4.83	8.07	0.55 (0.45;0.65)	23.80
Ceará	0.61 (2)	0.682 (2)	4.93	4.08	6.31	0.12 (-0.03;0.28)	2.43
Maranhão	0.62 (2)	0.639 (1)	2.57	2.65	5.17	0.28 (0.10;0.45)	10.89
Paraíba	0.61 (2)	0.658 (1)	3.87	5.08	9.18	0.62 (0.45;0.79)	16.02
Pernambuco	0.62 (2)	0.673 (1)	9.11	8.70	6.09	-0.23 (-0.42,0.05)	-2.52
Piauí	0.61 (2)	0.646 (1)	3.10	3.38	4.16	0.04 (-0.05;0.15)	1.29
Rio Grande do Norte	0.60 (2)	0.684 (2)	2.38	3.81	4.96	0.33 (0.17;0.50)	15.21
Sergipe	0.62 (2)	0.665 (1)	6.09	4.68	7.96	0.18 (-0.04;0.42)	2.95
Midwest
Distrito Federal	0.63 (3)	0.824 (3)	5.56	4.96	6.16	0.08 (-0.01;0.19)	1.43
Goiás	0.55 (1)	0.735 (3)	7.98	5.47	9.60	0.26 (-0.01;0.53)	3.25
Mato Grosso	0.55 (1)	0.725 (2)	10.27	10.33	8.45	-0.27 (-0.46;-0.08)	-2.62
Mato Grosso do Sul	0.56 (1)	0.729 (2)	9.97	6.62	8.44	-0.08 (-0.35;0.18)	-0.80
South
Paraná	0.53 (1)	0.749 (3)	5.26	5.47	7.80	0.23 (0.09;0.37)	4.37
Rio Grande do Sul	0.54 (1)	0.746 (3)	4.76	4.22	6.20	0.13 (0.02;0.25)	2.73
Santa Catarina	0.49 (1)	0.774 (3)	3.99	2.82	3.96	0.04 (-0.08;0.16)	1.00
Southeast
Espírito Santo	0.56 (1)	0.740 (3)	12.06	13.84	11.35	0.07 (-0.34;0.49)	0.58
Minas Gerais	0.56 (1)	0.731 (3)	4.30	5.51	6.09	0.10 (0.02;0.19)	2.32
Rio de Janeiro	0.59 (2)	0.761 (3)	8.38	6.61	5.20	-0.43 (-0.56;-0.31)	-5.13
São Paulo	0.56 (1)	0.783 (3)	6.77	3.52	3.68	-0.33 (-0.44;-0.21)	-4.87
Brazil	0.52	0.699	5.84	5.14	6.16	0.01 (-0.04;0.07)	0.17

	Coefficient	CI 95%*	P-value	% variation	Trend
Region
Northeast	0 .25	0.18;0.32	< 0.001	5.49	increase
North	0.28	0.20;0.35	< 0.001	5.74	increase
Midwest	0.05	-0.12;0.23	0.482	0.60	stable
Southeast	-0.23	-0.29;-0.16	< 0.001	-3.41	reduction
South	0.14	0.04;0.25	0.01	2.92	increase
HDI
1º	0.16	-0.15;0.48	0.272	3.51	stable
2º	-0.04	-0.41;0.31	0.766	-0,66	stable
3º	-0.10	-0.17;0.03	0.006	-1,58	reduction
GINI Tertiles
1º	-0.64	-0.14;0.01	0.094	-3.51	stable
2º	0.09	0.03;0.16	0.010	1.70	increase
3º	0.27	0.16;0.37	< 0.001	4.83	increase
Brazil	0.01	-0.04;0.07	0.558	0.17	stable

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[1] Collaborations

FMC Leite and KC Mascarello worked in design, outline, analysis, interpretation of data, writing of paper and approval of the version to be published. APSC Almeida, JL Favero and AS Santos worked in design, outline, analysis, interpretation of data, writing of paper and approval of the version to be published. ICM Silva and FC Wehrmeister worked in outline, analysis, interpretation of data, critical review and approval of the version to be published.