The estimated sugarcane cultivated area in Brazil lies around 8 million hectares, 60% of which are found within the state of São Paulo, unevenly scattered throughout its territory. In June 2007, the Sugarcane Industry Association (UNICA) and SMA-SP signed an AgrI-Environment protocol, designed to anticipate the end of straw burning in areas with slope under 12% until 2014. The objective of this study is to perform an analysis of São Paulo municipalities' compliance with this protocol, considering the dynamics of burning practices, using spatial analysis techniques. Two study areas were selected according to Moran's index, and analyses on the harvesting practices changes during the period between 2006 and 2008 were performed. Transition matrices were calculated using a stationary model based on the Markov chain. A second model, prescriptive, was elaborated based on expert counseling. The results showed that there are clusters where the compliance with the protocol is higher, close to Barretos and Ribeirão Preto municipalities, while near Ourinhos and Jaú, the practice of burning is still regularly kept. However, the analysis showed that in all study areas there is a strong trend to reduce the pre-harvest burning.
agri-environment protocol; spatial analysis; GIS
