Abstract
We estimate the impact of strict social distancing policies on isolation, COVID-19 cases and deaths, and employment in Brazil. Compiling social distancing decrees and combining them with publicly available data, we identify a set of treated municipalities that adopted lockdown between May and June 2021 in the State of São Paulo and build a control group with cities from the same Regional Health Departments. We estimate the lockdown effects using a Difference-in-Differences model with two-way fixed effects and staggered adoption. Our findings suggest that the policy increased social distancing one week after its adoption, decreased cases from two weeks on, reduced deaths from four weeks on, and did not significantly impact employment.
Keywords
COVID-19; lockdown; mortality; employment; Brazil
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Notes: The treatment group is composed by the following municipalities: Altinópolis, Araraquara, Batatais, Bebedouro, Brodowski, Colômbia, Cristais Paulista, Franca, Itirapuã, Jardinópolis, Patrocínio Paulista, Restinga, Ribeirão Preto, São José da Bela Vista, Taiúva. The control group is composed by all the other municipalities in the Regional Health Departments of Araraquara, Barretos, Franca, or Ribeirão Preto.
Notes: The regression used to elaborate this graph contains one indicator variable for each day from 2 weeks before the lockdown adoption until 7 weeks later and was estimated with weighted least squares, where the weight is the municipality's population. The dependent variable is calculated as a 7-day moving average. The regression controls for municipality and day fixed effects and municipal-specific trends. Robust standard errors were used to construct the 95% confidence interval represented by the dashed lines.
Notes: The regression used to elaborate this graph contains one indicator variable for each day from 2 weeks before the lockdown adoption until 7 weeks later and was estimated with weighted least squares, where the weight is the municipality's population. The dependent variable is calculated as a 7-day moving average per 100,000 inhabitants. The regression controls for municipality and day fixed effects and municipal-specific trends. Robust standard errors were used to construct the 95% confidence interval represented by the dashed lines.
Notes: The regression used to elaborate this graph contains one indicator variable for each day from 2 weeks before the lockdown adoption until 7 weeks later and was estimated with weighted least squares, where the weight is the municipality's population. The dependent variable is calculated as a 7-day moving average per 100,000 inhabitants. The regression controls for municipality and day fixed effects and municipal-specific trends. Robust standard errors were used to construct the 95% confidence interval represented by the dashed lines.
Notes: The regression used to elaborate this graph contains one indicator variable for each month from 1 month before the lockdown adoption until 4 months later and was estimated with weighted least squares, where the weight is the municipality's population. The dependent variable is calculated as per 100,000 inhabitants. The regression controls for municipality and day fixed effects. Robust standard errors were used to construct the 95% confidence interval represented by the vertical capped lines.
Notes: The regressions used to elaborate these graphs contain one indicator variable for each period before and after the lockdown adoption and were estimated with weighted least squares, where the weight is the municipality's population. From (a) to (c), the dependent variable is calculated as a 7-day moving average. In (b) to (d), the dependent variable is calculated as per 100,000 inhabitants. The regressions control for municipality and time fixed effects. Robust standard errors were used to construct the 95% confidence interval represented by the vertical capped lines. The control group is selected using propensity score matching (PSM).
Notes: The treatment group is composed by the following municipalities: Altinópolis, Araraquara, Batatais, Bebedouro, Brodowski, Colômbia, Cristais Paulista, Franca, Itirapuã, Jardinópolis, Patrocínio Paulista, Restinga, Ribeirão Preto, São José da Bela Vista, Taiúva. The control group is composed by the following municipalities: Aramina, Boa Esperança do Sul, Guaraci, Igarapava, Ituverava, Itápolis, Jaborandi, Jaboticabal, Jeriquara, Monte Azul Paulista, Morro Agudo, Motuca, Santa Cruz da Esperança, Santa Rita do Passa Quatro, Serra Azul, Serrana, Tabatinga, Vista Alegre do Alto, Tabatinga, Vista Alegre do Alto. All municipalities that are not ``Out of sample'' are in the Regional Health Departments of Araraquara, Barretos, Franca or Ribeirão Preto.
Notes: These figures replicate the main analysis but using a placebo lockdown policy “adopted” one year before the actual policy. The regressions control for municipality and day fixed effects and municipal-specific trends. Robust standard errors were used to construct the 95% confidence interval represented by the dashed lines.