Probabilidades de admissão e desligamento no mercado de trabalho brasileiro

Abstract

This paper evaluates the probabilities of admission and dismissal in the Brazilian labor market, and measures its contribution to the variability of the unemployment rate in the country. It uses a new methodology, which allows obtaining the probabilities through stocks of employed and unemployed correcting the time aggregation bias. We found that for the period of 1983 to 2001, the oscillations of the rate of admission were responsible for 75% of the variability in the unemployment rate in major metropolitan areas of Brazil. Between 2004 and 2013 that rate explains 80% of those variations.

Keywords
Unemployment; Economic cycles