Resumo
Estudos anteriores mostraram que a porcentagem de votos para Jair Messias Bolsonaro nas eleições presidenciais de 2018, nos níveis municipal e estadual, está relacionada à gravidade da pandemia de COVID-19 em termos de número de mortes. Encontramos os mesmos efeitos no nível intramunicipal na cidade de São Paulo. Usando geolocalização, associamos dados de votação ao número de óbitos dos 96 distritos da cidade. Analisamos o excesso de mortalidade para mitigar problemas de subnotificação e controlar para determinantes exógenos de mortalidade, além de controlarmos pela estrutura etária e diversos indicadores de vulnerabilidade socioeconômica. Os resultados são significativos e indicam a existência de relação entre votos em Bolsonaro e mortes durante a pandemia — entre uma e cinco mortes a mais por 100 mil pessoas para cada ponto percentual de votos. Vários testes de robustez balizam nossos achados.
Palavras-chave
COVID19; Persuasão política; Polarização política; Ideologia
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Note: Light grey lines are the municipal district limits and darker lines represent electoral zones.
Note: Coefficient estimates are from OLS regressions including indicators for vote decile, omitting the dummy for districts in the bin with the least percentage of votes for Bolsonaro (below the 10% quantile). The dependent variable is total excess deaths, calculated as the difference between the number of deaths in each district between April 2020 and March 2021, and the average of deaths in the previous three years. All regressions include controls for age structure, average income, and other socioeconomic variables. Standard errors are clustered at the subprefecture level and 95% confidence intervals are plotted. N = 96
Note: Coefficient estimates are from OLS regressions. The dependent variable is total excess deaths, calculated as the difference between the number of deaths in each district during each three-month period, and the average of deaths in the same three months of 2017-2019. All regressions include controls for age structure, average income, and other socioeconomic vari- ables. Standard errors are clustered at the subprefecture level and 95% confidence intervals are plotted. N = 96
Note: Acceleration of Deaths is defined as the percentage change between the average number of deaths from COVID-19 per day throughout 2020 and the average number of deaths from COVID-19 per day in the first three months of 2021. In the chart, R = 0.37 and p < 0.0002.
Note: Districts excluded in the robustness checks are shown with triangles in the last graph. Namely: Jabaquara, Jaguaré, Morumbi, Raposo Tavares, Rio Pequeno, São Domingos, Vila Andrade and Vila Sônia.