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Dynamics and structure analysis of citrus sudden death foci

Citrus Sudden Death (CSD) is a new and destructive disease that affects sweet oranges (Citrus sinensis) and some mandarins (C. reticulata) grafted on Rangpur lime (C. limonia). Its etiology and transmission mechanisms are still unknown, epidemiologic study of the disease was recently initiated. Dynamics and structure analysis of foci technique (DSAF) was used to characterize CSD dissemination on 166 spatial distribution maps of CSD symptomatic trees from 51 blocks of northern São Paulo State and the southern of Triângulo Mineiro. According to DSAF, the CSD epidemic begins with unitary foci randomly distributed in the block. At an incidence up to 2%, most of the foci were composed by an unique plant. Later, the disease progresses more by increasing the number of foci than by increasing the size of the focus. This was indicated by an increase in the number of foci up to 18% of disease incidence and by the reduced number of plants per focus (less than four plants per focus at 20% of incidence). In most cases (71.5%), foci expanded more within-row than across-row. Compactness reduction of foci with increase in CSD incidence suggests that larger foci are less compact and, thus, that disease dissemination does not occur in a homogenous and continuous way around the first affected tree. The observed patterns are similar to those of diseases caused by an infectious agent, which is transmitted by a vector.


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