Predicting Species Distribution and Conserving Rosewood Tree Under Global Climate Change Scenarios

Santos, Paulo Vinícius da Silva; Lima Junior, Manuel de Jesus Vieira; Souza, Samuel Freitas de; Tomaz, Jennifer Souza; Bezerra, Caroline de Souza; Lopes, Maria Teresa Gomes

doi:10.1590/2179-8087-FLORAM-2025-0008

person Paulo Vinícius da Silva Santos

data curation (equal) · formal analysis (equal) · methodology (equal) · software (equal) · writing – original draft (equal)

schoolUniversidade Federal do Amazonas (UFAM), Centro de Sementes Nativas do Amazonas, Manaus, AM, Brasil.

0000-0001-8317-9146

person Manuel de Jesus Vieira Lima Junior

supervision (equal) · validation (equal) · visualization (equal) · writing – original draft (equal) · writing – review & editing (equal)

schoolUniversidade Federal do Amazonas (UFAM), Centro de Sementes Nativas do Amazonas, Manaus, AM, Brasil.

0000-0002-1930-5416

person Samuel Freitas de Souza

data curation (equal) · formal analysis (equal) · methodology (equal) · software (equal) · writing – original draft (equal)

schoolUniversidade Federal do Amazonas (UFAM), Manaus, AM, Brasil.

0000-0002-9672-0197

person Jennifer Souza Tomaz

conceptualization (equal) · investigation (equal) · methodology (equal) · validation (equal) · writing – original draft (equal) · writing – review & editing (equal)

schoolUniversidade Federal do Amazonas (UFAM), Manaus, AM, Brasil.

0000-0001-6612-2172

person Caroline de Souza Bezerra

conceptualization (equal) · data curation (equal) · validation (equal) · writing – original draft (equal) · writing – review & editing (equal)

schoolUniversidade Federal do Amazonas (UFAM), Manaus, AM, Brasil.

0000-0002-0380-4181

person Maria Teresa Gomes Lopes

supervision (equal) · validation (equal) · visualization (equal) · writing – original draft (equal) · writing – review & editing (equal)

schoolUniversidade Federal do Amazonas (UFAM), Manaus, AM, Brasil.

0000-0003-1988-7126

personCORRESPONDENCE TO Manuel de Jesus Vieira Lima Junior Av General Rodrigo Otavio Jordão Ramos, 3000, coroado, CEP 69077000 - Manaus, AM, Brasil. e-mail:
mjlimajunior@gmail.com

Associate editor:

Fernando Gomes http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0363-4888

Principal Components
Variable	PC22	PC23	PC24	PC26	PC27	PC28
Bio1	−0.08	−0.01	0.01	0.17	−0.31	−0.12
Bio2	0.18	−0.19	0.11	0.25	−0.27	−0.07
Bio3	0.24	0.49	−0.15	−0.14	0.10	0.03
Bio4	−0.07	0.63	−0.10	0.10	−0.23	−0.07
Bio5	−0.07	0.06	−0.13	−0.23	0.39	0.17
Bio6	−0.04	0.01	−0.05	0.06	0.00	0.05
Bio7	0.00	0.04	−0.04	−0.29	0.35	0.08
Bio8	0.07	−0.13	0.16	−0.12	0.13	0.04
Bio9	−0.28	0.09	0.15	−0.10	0.12	0.02
Bio10	−0.11	0.24	−0.09	0.14	−0.27	−0.11
Bio11	−0.04	−0.18	0.02	0.07	−0.10	−0.05
Bio12	−0.11	−0.21	−0.72	−0.08	−0.02	−0.38
Bio13	−0.13	0.13	0.43	0.37	0.35	−0.31
Bio14	−0.02	−0.05	0.33	−0.44	−0.14	−0.35
Bio15	0.12	0.01	−0.13	0.00	0.03	−0.01
Bio16	−0.09	0.00	0.13	−0.32	−0.44	0.56
Bio17	−0.06	−0.07	−0.14	0.50	0.17	0.50
Bio18	0.19	0.06	0.01	−0.03	0.07	0.02
Bio19	0.21	−0.05	0.05	0.00	0.01	−0.01
CEC	0.09	−0.03	0.04	0.00	−0.03	0.00
CFV	0.26	0.01	−0.02	−0.02	0.01	0.00
Clay	0.00	−0.01	−0.03	−0.02	0.01	0.00
Elevation	−0.62	0.17	0.00	−0.04	0.01	0.01
Nitrogen	−0.10	0.13	−0.01	−0.01	0.01	0.01
OCD	−0.22	−0.12	−0.06	−0.03	0.02	0.00
OCS	0.20	0.09	0.00	0.02	−0.01	−0.01
pH of the soil in H ₂ O	−0.33	−0.24	0.02	0.00	−0.02	0.01
Sand	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Silt	−0.01	−0.01	0.03	0.02	−0.01	0.00
Slope	0.02	−0.04	0.02	0.01	−0.01	0.00
SOC	−0.02	0.03	0.02	0.00	−0.01	0.00
CP	0.00	−0.01	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.00
AD	0.02	0.02	−0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00

Algorithms
Metrics	BIO¹	GLM²	MXD ³	RDF ⁴	SVM ⁵
AUC ⁶	0.90±0.03	0.80±0.06	0.80±0.06	0.80±0.06	0.89±0.04
Kappa	0.88±0.03	0.76±0.06	0.76±0.06	0.78±0.06	0.87±0.04
TSS ⁷	0.94±0.04	0.78±0.08	0.78±0.08	0.81±0.06	0.90±0.04
Jaccard	0.98±0.02	0.87±0.06	0.87±0.06	0.88±0.06	0.93±0.03
Sorensen	0.96±0.02	0.80±0.06	0.80±0.06	0.82±0.04	0.90±0.03

		SSP245			SSP585
Area (km²)		2041−2060	2061−2080	2081−2100	2041−2060	2061−2080	2081−2100
Brazilian Amazon	2,235.218.70	−22.8	−19.4	−17.6	−21.0	−24.2	−62.5
Rest of the Amazon	1,231.030.28	−25.8	−24.8	−27.4	−29.7	−31.0	−42.3
Caatinga	16,460.97	−100.0	−100.0	−100.0	−100.0	−100.0	−100.0
Cerrado	276,554.66	−87.2	−83.9	−85.7	−84.9	−85.5	−96.3
Atlantic Forest	31,081.36	−95.7	−96.3	−97.5	−98.6	−99.8	−99.9
Pampa	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Pantanal	138.91	+812.5	+2,000.0	+987.5	+1525.0	+750.0	−94.1
Total	3,790,484.877	−29.4	−26.8	−26.8	−29.4%	−31.8	−58.9%

		SSP245			SSP585
Area (Km²)		2041−2060	2061−2080	2081−2100	2041−2060	2061−2080	2081−2100
CU	715,044.949	−21.8	−16.7	−17.2	−21.8	−23.0	−68.1
IL	533,974.315	−8.5	−13.5	−10.4	−6.4	−9.6	−45.6
Total	1,249,019.26	−16.1	−15.4	−14.3	−15.3	−17.3	−58.5

[1] Bio1 = annual average temperature (°C); Bio2 = monthly average of daily temperature change (°C); Bio3 = isothermality; Bio4 = temperature seasonality; Bio5 = maximum temperature in the hottest month (°C); Bio6 = minimum temperature in the coldest month (°C); Bio7 = annual temperature change (°C); Bio8 = average temperature in the wettest quarter (°C); Bio9 = average temperature in the driest quarter (°C); Bio10 = average temperature in the hottest quarter (°C); Bio11 = average temperature in the coldest quarter (°c); Bio12 = accumulated rainfall in the year (mm); Bio13 = rainfall accumulated in the wettest month (mm); Bio14 = rainfall accumulated in the driest month (mm); Bio15 = rainfall seasonality; Bio16 = rainfall accumulated in the wettest quarter (mm); Bio17 = rainfall accumulated in the driest quarter( mm); Bio18 = rainfall accumulated in the warmest quarter (mm)and; Bio19 = rainfall accumulated in the coldest quarter (mm); CEC = cation exchange capacity at pH 7; CFV = coarse fragments volumetric; OCD = organic carbon densities; OCS = soil organic carbon stock; SOC = soil organic carbon content; CP = classes and probabilities “World Reference Base” and AD = Apparent density.

Predicting Species Distribution and Conserving Rosewood Tree Under Global Climate Change Scenarios

Abstract