ASSESSING THE TIMEMANIA LOTTERY AS A SPORTS PUBLIC POLICY

A AVALIAÇÃO DA LOTERIA TIMEMANIA COMO POLÍTICA PÚBLICA DE ESPORTE

ABSTRACT

This paper analyses the main results of Timemania as a sports public policy based on the efficiency, efficacy and social effectiveness principles. A descriptive-analytical research with qualitative approach was conducted through the analysis of contents from laws and official reports. Results suggest that the Timemania lottery was neither efficacious nor efficient, as it did not achieve the initial goals as to its revenues and debt payment for clubs. Timemania was not effective and did not significantly impact sports development. Finally, it is possible to conclude that Timemania, as a regulatory policy, fulfills the sole role of ensuring financial injection for major Brazilian football clubs.

Keywords:
Public policy; Assessment studies; Legislation; Sports

RESUMO

O artigo analisa os principais resultados da Timemania como política pública de esporte a partir dos princípios da eficiência, eficácia e efetividade social. Realizou-se uma pesquisa descritivo-analítica, com abordagem qualitativa, a partir da análise de conteúdos de leis e relatórios oficiais. Os resultados indicam que a Timemania não foi eficaz e eficiente, por não atender os objetivos iniciais de arrecadação e pagamento das dívidas dos clubes. A Timemania não foi efetiva e não impactou de forma significativa no desenvolvimento do esporte. Por fim, conclui-se que a Timemania, como uma política regulatória, cumpre o papel apenas de garantir um aporte financeiro para os clubes de futebol de maior destaque no Brasil.

Palavras-chave:
Política pública; Estudos de avaliação; Legislação; Esportes

Introduction

In recent decades, sports public policies have been receiving greater attention and funding nationwide and worldwide, and permeated by different political, economic and social issues. The increase in political actions aimed at sports comes along the need for assessing the implementation of the public policies in question^1,2.

In the field of research on Brazilian public policies, there is a concentration of studies addressing planning and execution to the detriment of assessment, according to an investigation conducted by Oliveira³. However, the assessment of impacts, with the aim of enhancing the political action, corresponds to a contemporary concern about reaching the goals and measuring the utilization of public resources⁴.

From the increasing need to assess public policies, analyzing Timemania becomes greatly relevant for understanding the role of lotteries in sports funding and of the impacts resulting from this political action. According to the Sports Transparency Portal, the off-budget source of resource had a significant importance in funding sports in Brazil between 2008 and 2017, the period scope of the present article. In 2008, off-budget resources stood at 17.09%, against 50.20% in 2017, which is a significant rise, with highlight to the transfer of revenues from prediction contests and lotteries to sports entities⁵. In addition, the importance of analyzing Timemania results is combined with the incipience of investigations on the funding of public policies in the Physical Education and sports context, as described in a research conducted by Mascarenhas⁶.

Timemania is based on Law No 11.345, of September 14, 2006, sanctioned by former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. The law sets forth the "institution of prediction contests intended for the development of sports practice and participation of football-supporting sports entities"⁷.

The debate that preceded the enactment of the Timemania Law emerged during a period when the Brazilian Football-Supporting Sports Entities [Entidades Desportivas da Modalidade Futebol] were going through indebtedness and financial crisis. In this sense, the creation of this lottery was part of an agreement between the representatives of the great social clubs and the Brazilian State in order to prevent the bankruptcy of the EDMF. The Sports Ministry, when presenting the new legislation, stressed that the initial goal of the prediction was to modernize the sport, as well as to promote a change of behavior in managers, clubs and athletes⁸.

It is worth noting that said policy presents a neoliberal view that values the supremacy of the market as a mechanism for resource allocation, and distribution of goods, services and incomes. In Brazil, such actions have the typical characteristics of the Latin American neoliberalism, which regulates the market and interferes with public funding as well as with tax exemption in order to guarantee the interests of specific groups⁶.

The State, by creating the lottery, has funded the EDMF for them to pay off their debts using the resources of gambler supporters. The neoliberalism referred to in the article is not understood as the new liberalism, aligned with the conception of minimal state. The neoliberalism is herein understood as a regulator of the market for the debts of the EDMF to be paid off⁹.

Thus, Timemania was created with the main purpose of injecting, in a focalized manner, a new revenue into the EDMF for the latter to pay their debt - amounts due until August 15, 2007 - with the Federal Government. The lottery operates on two fronts: reducing the debt service, with elimination of fines and reduced interests; and creating extra revenue^8,10.

The payment of the social clubs' debts involved an installment plan for existing debts with the Unemployment Insurance Fund [Fundo de Garantia do Tempo de Serviço] (FGTS), with the National Social Security Institute [Instituto Nacional do Seguro Social] (INSS), with the Brazilian Inland Revenue Service [Secretaria da Receita Federal do Brasil] and with the National Treasury General Attorney's Office [Procuradoria-Geral da Fazenda Nacional]. Thus, aligned with the neoliberal ideology, Timemania, in the last 10 years, allocated financial resources primarily for the EDMF to pay off their debts with the Union and, secondarily, for the social area in Brazil.

The EDMF have media rights, which refers to a legal authorization for use of image, but they can only receive the resource after paying off all their debts in installments, totaling up to 240 months (20 years). Timemania also generates a new revenue for social development, in areas such as healthcare, sports, culture and safety¹⁰.

After its implementation, several questions were raised about its effectiveness, and about whether it is the role of the State to create regulatory policies that contribute to the payment of debts resulting from the interference of social clubs. The Brazilian House of Representatives itself performed a negative assessment on the results of the lottery as a public policy until 2013¹¹.

Thus, the action of the Brazilian State as to the debts of the EDMF and as a regulating agent has raised the following questions: How does Timemania organizes itself, and which are its main impacts as a sports public policy? Which results have Timemania achieved when it comes to the efficacy, efficiency and social effectiveness principles?

The questions raised show the relevance of assessing a public policy for the Brazilian State, for the economic sector and for society as a whole, since it involves the enhancement of the political action and the assessment of public resource utilization¹².

In this sense, the objective of this article is to analyze and assess the main results and impacts of the Timemania lottery as a sports public policy, between 2008 and 2017, based on the efficacy, efficiency and social effectiveness principles.

To do so, after the method is delimited, the text will be organized to present the operation of Timemania and, afterwards, to bring a discussion around the assessment of the impact that the lottery has as a sports public policy based on the aforementioned principles.

Methods

This is a descriptive, analytical research with qualitative approach¹³, organized in two stages: in the first one, there was a documental research, and the Timemania Law was analyzed; in the second, the resources intended for the EDMF were surveyed and analyzed, and so were reports, Bills and news published on the theme at the transparency portal of the Brazilian Federal Savings Bank [Caixa Econômica Federal] (CEF). In total, 10 CEF reports were analyzed, all published between 2008 and 2017, along with Bill No 5201/2015, Law No 11.345, of September 14, 2006 (Timemania Law), Decree No 6.187, of August 14, 2007 (which regulates Law No 11.345, of September 14, 2006), as well as news published from 2008 to 2017. This time scope is justified by the fact that it allows analyzing the whole cycle of public policies referring to Timemania, which involved its planning, implementation and assessment.

For data tabulation, the technique used was content analysis, which corresponds to a set of analyses "[...] aimed at the sourcing of information by means of systematic and objective procedures to describe the content of messages". The content analysis was organized at three chronological poles: pre-analysis, during which the news and reports were read and selected; material exploration, which corresponded to the analysis phase; and treatment of results, inference and interpretation.

The discussion is based on the methodology for public policy assessment proposed by Arretche¹⁵, which consists of measuring and analyzing the impacts of a given political action on society. The assessment comprehended three categories: efficacy (relationship between planned objective and achieved result); efficiency (relationship between the political action cost and benefit); and social effectiveness (impact of the policy on society).

Results and Discussion

For being a specific-prediction lottery contest, organized by the CEF, Timemania consists of weekly raffles. In the beginning of 2008, it had one raffle per week. In 2010, it expanded with the second weekly raffle. Since 2013, raffles happen three times a week.

In this lottery, the gambler can "check 10 out of the 80 numbers on the lottery ticket and choose their "Beloved Team" for a chance to win prizes. The main prize is given to the gambler that picks 7 right numbers; other winning ranges include 6 and 5 numbers, which will have a value defined according to the revenue, and those who pick 4 or 3 correct numbers is awarded R$ 6.00 and R$ 2.00 (fixed prize). In the special range, whoever picks the right Beloved Team receives back the money bet, and the social clubs with more nominations receive the greatest amount from the revenue¹⁶.

Decree No 6.187, of August 14, 2007, determined that 98 clubs would benefit from the lottery, but only 80 would be present on the Timemania tickets. The other 18 clubs not featured on the tickets are entitled to a smaller proportion of all collected resources¹⁶.

The revenue is distributed as follows: 46% goes to the value of the prizes; 22% to the clubs that joined the lottery; 20% to service expenses and maintenance; 3% to sports projects in the basic and higher education network and to the actions of social clubs (Sports Ministry); 3% to the National Correctional Fund [Fundo Penitenciário Nacional] (FINPEN); 3% to Santas Casas de Misericórdia (National Heath Fund [Fundo Nacional de Saúde] - FNS); 2% to Law Agnelo/Piva (Brazilian Olympic Committee [Comitê Olímpico Brasileiro] - COB, and Brazilian Paralympic Committee [Comitê Paraolímpico Brasileiro] - CPB); and 1% to Social Security⁷.

The participation of the EDMF when Timemania started was conditioned to their placement in one of the groups described in article 5, Decree No 6.187, of August 14, 2007, as presented below¹⁶.

I - Group 1: professional football teams qualified to play the "Series A" of the Brazilian Championship during 2007; II - Group 2: professional football teams qualified to play the "Series B" of the Brazilian Championship during 2007; III - Group 3: professional football teams that, while active and not integrating groups 1 or 2, meet the provisions of § 3, until the number of participants set in article 2 is reached; IV- Group 4: professional football teams that are active and do not integrate groups 1, 2 or 3.

From the revenue accumulated in the first year of Timemania, in 2008, the clubs were paid according to their division in the Brazilian Men's Football Championship. However, as of 2009, the distribution of resources changed to be ruled by the number of bets. Thus, the 20 clubs with more nominations as Beloved Team, in 2009, were then sharing 65% of the total revenue (Group 1). The clubs ranked 21 to 40, would share 25% (Group 2), while the remaining 40 were paid 8%. The clubs not included in the tickets shared 2%.

Having presented the organization and operation elements of Timemania, it is worth highlighting that every public policy is based on a "theory", and its analysis involves a set of assertoins¹⁷. From this perspective, the analysis of Timemania as a sports public policy comprehended a set of assertions of various origins (rational or not), which supported the construction of practices meant for intervention and channeling of resources through the lottery.

Analyzing it from the viewpoint of efficacy^15,18,19, the lottery did not manage to reach the initial intended goal of R$ 500 million of total annual revenue, between 2008 and 2017. The results related to the transfer of values to the EDMF are also distant from the objectives aimed at by the Federal Government, as Table 1 displays.

Table 1
Total revenue: Transfer of amounts to the EDMF and Beloved Teams through Timemania between 2008 and 2017

Year	Total revenue	Amounts transferred to the EDMF	Beloved Teams
2008	106,000,000.00	21,200,000.00	2,120,000.00
2009	110,369,800.00	22,073,960.00	2,207,396.00
2010	120,652,800.00	24,130,560.00	2,413,056.00
2011	159,753,384.00	31,950,676.00	3,195,067.00
2012	256,212,506.00	51,242,501.00	5,124,250.00
2013	252,051,758.00	50,410,351.00	5,041,035.00
2014	425,446,998.00	85,089,399.00	8,508,939.00
2015	338,050,000.00	67,610,000.00	6,761,000.00
2016	276,942,364.00	55,388,472.00	5,538,847.00
2017	475,786,981.00	95,157,396.00	9,515,739.00
Total	2,521,266,591.00	504,253,315.00	50,425,329.00

• Source: Caixa Econômica Federal, 2008-2017 reports

Analyzing the efficacy of Timemania, Table 1 shows that, in the first four years, no success was achieved as to the total revenue, since the results did not reach even 50% of the intended goal. The CEF annual report of 2008 noted that Timemania made R$ 106 million, R$ 23.3 million of which went to the payment of the EDMF's debts. Out of the transferred amount, R$ 21.2 million (20% of the revenue) went to the established ranking, and R$ 2.1 million (2% of the revenue) went to the Beloved Teams²⁰.

Analyzing the values based on the deflation of the Consumer Price Index (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics [Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística] - IBGE) concerning the initial planned value of R$ 500 million of total annual revenue, it is possible to state that Timemania was not efficacious either, since in all analyzed years it fell short of the expected result, as shown in Figure 1.

Figure 1
Comparison between revenues, amounts transferred to the EDMF, amounts transferred to the Beloved Teams, and amounts deflated by the Consumer Price Index (IBGE)

In 2009, Timemania had a minimum increase and made R$ 110.3 million, out of which R$ 24.2 million was channeled to the EDMF. Out of the R$ 24.2 million, R$ 22 million was transferred through the ranking, and R$ 2.2 million went to the Beloved Teams (BRAZIL, 2010). In 2010, it grew minimally and made R$ 120,652,800; out of this amount, R$ 26.5 million went to the EDMF - R$ 24.1 million to the ranking, and R$ 2.4 million to the Beloved Teams.

In 2011, the lottery had a revenue of R$ 159.7 million, out of which R$ 35 million was channeled to the EDMF - R$ 31.9 million went to the ranking, and R$ 3.1 million to the Beloved Teams (BRAZIL, 2012). In 2012, Timemania had it first significant increase, making a total of R$ 256.7 million. Out of that revenue, 22% went to the EDMF - 20% (R$ 51.2 million) was distributed according to the ranking, and 2% (R$ 5.1 million) was split among the Beloved Teams.

Despite its growth in 2012, the lottery was deemed inefficacious and inefficient, which stirred a debate in the National Congress. According to a news story published by the House of Representatives, on July 19, 2012, with the title "Commission studies changes in Timemania to increase the volume of bets", the inefficiency of the lottery was highlighted. The story pointed out that only 10% of those fiscal debts were paid off until the date of said publication, and that the debts of the social clubs with the Federal Government stood around R$ 1.5 billion11.

The proposal for change had as argument the failure of Timemania between 2008 and 2012. However, the proposal was not approved, and the percentages were maintained as follows: 46% free of income tax, meant for the prize amount; 27% to pay the EDMF that authorized their denominations, crests, brands, emblems, anthems or symbols to be used for promoting and executing the contest; 15% for service expenses and maintenance²¹.

In 2013, Timemania made R$ 252 million, which meant a decrease compared to 2012. Out of that amount, R$ 55.4 million was transferred to the EDMF - R$ 50.4 million via ranking, and R$ 5 million through the Beloved Teams. In 2014, Timemania had the highest growth among all CEF lotteries, with a revenue of R$ 425,346,998. Out of that amount, R$ 93.5 million went to the EDMF - R$ 85 million via ranking, and R$ 8.5% to the Beloved Teams.

Despite the 2014 results (close to the 2007 planning), until 2013 Timemania continued to be negatively assessed by the National Congress. For this reason, another commission was created and drafted Bill No 5201/2015 in order to amend Law No 11.345, of September 14, 2006, and make changes to the targets of the revenues in order to increase the payment capacity of sports entities²². Bill No 5201/2015 began transacting as a matter of urgency, on February 25, 2015, upon Vicente Cândido's request (PT/SP). However, it was removed from the agenda on March 19, 2015.

According to Borges²³, the Bill did not meet the needs of the Bom Senso FC movement, an institution that represents the rights of Brazilian football players. The players were calling for financial fair play and for the teams being committed to paying the salaries of athletes and employees on time, under the threat of division relegation.

In 2015, Timemania had a decrease and made only R$ 338 million, out of which R$ 74.3 million went to the EDMF, R$ 67.6 million to the ranking, and R$ 6.7 million to the Beloved Teams. In an attempt to encourage bets, the CEF launched the Goleada Timemania campaign, carried out from October to November 2015, obtaining positive results, with a revenue 35% above the expected for the months of the campaign.

In 2016, its revenue was smaller than it was in 2015, standing at R$ 276.9 million, out of which R$ 60.7 million went to the EDMF - R$ 55.3 million to the ranking, and R$ 5.4 million to the Beloved Teams. Finally, in 2017, Timemania had the best result over the ten years of its existence, making R$ 475.7 million in revenue. Out of that amount, R$ 104.5 million were transferred to the EDMF - R$ 95.1 via ranking, and R$ 9.5 million through the Beloved Teams²⁴.

Concerning the total debt of the EDMF that joined the program, altogether they owed R$ 1.5 billion to the Federal Government in 2007, and approximately R$ 155 million to the FGTS. The total revenue of Timemania, as displayed in Table 1, stood at 2.5 billion between 2008 and 2017. Out of the total amount, 20% (504 million) went to the EDMF, according to the ranking, and 2% (50 million) went to the Beloved Teams. Timemania would need 360 months (30 years) of operation for the EDMF to pay off their debts with the Federal Government, which partly shows the inefficacy and inefficiency of the lottery, since the initial goal was 240 months. It is important to point out that this calculation does not factor in interests, which further exposes the inefficacy and inefficiency of Timemania.

Timemania did not present a positive cost and benefit relationship as a sports public policy, between 2008 and 2017, since it did not reach its revenue goal, the actions were not efficient, and there were variations in total revenue, which led to several questions being raised in the National Congress.

If, on the one hand, the lottery is not efficacious and efficient in paying debts, on the other hand, Timemania had the participation of all 98 EDMF that the Sports Ministry deemed eligible to join the lottery.

As for the accumulated revenue, between 2008 and 2017, the EDMF that received more resources are those in the Series A of the 2018 Brazilian Men's Football Championship. The exceptions are Fortaleza and Goiás, which are in Series B, and ABC and Santa Cruz, in Series C, as shown in Chart 1. Despite a minimal variation among those in the first 20 positions over the years, it is possible to state that the new format of the lottery has generated minimal competition and a club management campaign together with supporters. Santa Cruz stands out, which was among the 20 most nominated clubs, regardless of going from Series A down to Series C in the last few years.

Figure 2
Total number of Timemania bets by club between 2008 and 2017

Flamengo and Corinthians, in their turn, since the beginning of the lottery, have been first and second, respectively, whereas São Paulo, Santos and Palmeiras fought for the third place, as shown in Figure 2. Timemania is understood by the social clubs as having great relevance for debt payment, since they are the most benefited from the lottery, having received 22% of its revenue. The lottery presented a greater efficacy for the EDMF with larger crowds and/or more gamblers, since they received 65% of the resources for being in group 1, in addition to sharing the greatest amount of resources out of the 2% meant for the beloved teams. Moreover, Timemania has been claimed by the EDMF created after 2007, since there are clubs, such as Chapecoense, that do not benefit from it.

Figure 3 shows a significant growth of Timemania, with the highest number of bets for the teams in question. Despite this variation, based on the total revenue, it is possible to observe a progressive increase as a whole, which is a consequence of the higher number of bets placed for all clubs. Brazil already features among the 12 greatest countries as to this type of revenue. The growth of Federal Lotteries are reflected on the results of Timemania between 2008 and 2017.

Figure 3
Total number of social clubs with more bets between 2008 and 2017

The increase in resources for sports by means of Lotteries has been reported in other countries. According to research conducted by Houlihan25, the National Lottery funding in the UK presents an average of £ 250m per year, and the government's expenses has risen from £ 50m in 1999-2000 to £ 100m in 2003-2004, which is a significant increase.

As for social effectiveness, it is possible to state that Timemania channels only 12% of its revenues to the social area. Clearly, this public policy has been developed and implemented, as shown, with the purpose of providing the EDMF with resources. However, it is worth noting that this revenue percentage corroborates with the modus operandi of neoliberal policies, which seek to guarantee public resources targeting what is being called areas of social instability⁹.

The expansion in the budget for sports public policies in Brazil was boosted as of the creation of the Sports Ministry in 2003. Mascarenhas6 points out that, before so, only a few laws channeled resources to sports, with highlight to the 1969 Sports Lottery and the 2001 Agnelo Piva Law.

In other countries, such as the UK, sports funding was created in 1994. According to Lindsey²⁶, the national lottery emphasizes the creation of a fund for the development of projects in the sports, education and health fields. The national lottery significantly incremented the resources intended for sports. In 2005, the sports investment fund via lottery stood around 22% of the annual amount.

Differently, in the Brazilian context, the focus of the Timemania lottery has been increasing and directing resources to the EDMF, with football being the priority when it comes to incentives meant for high-performance sports. It is also worth stressing that Timemania demands a double taxation from taxpayers for providing a double aid for the EDMF to pay past due taxes and federal fees. Debts are financed at lower interests and with no fines. In short, the lottery seeks to pay the debts of clubs with the resources of the supporters/gamblers themselves (Brazilian citizens).

The case of Timemania evidenced the use of the state apparatus as a regulator to the benefit of the EDMF, with contributions to social development being merely residual. At the same time, there is no mechanism for tracking and monitoring the utilization of the public resources transferred by the government not only to the EDMF but also to other institutions, such as the COB and the CPB. It is relevant to highlight that the lottery benefited only 98 EDMF out of more than 722 entities affiliated to the Brazilian Football Confederation [Confederação Brasileira de Futebol] (CBF) in 2017, which led to an imbalance in resource distribution.

Conclusions

Timemania is a political action that significantly impacts the channeling of resources from the State to the EDMF and, secondarily, guarantees a small portion of resources for social development. In Brazil, off-budget resources derived from sports and primarily targeting the EDMF in Timemania shows a need for question the public choice of resource allocation, in order to aim priority resources at political actions for access to social rights.

Over the years, the Timemania lottery has been questioned for not being efficacious and not reaching the intended goal of revenue generation and payment of the EDMF's debts. The inefficiency of Timemania was also reported by the National Congress from the moment that it was seen as a failure until 2013. However, the significant growth in the revenues of the lottery in 2014 and in 2017 suppressed the inquiries from the National Congress about the amounts. From the viewpoint of social effectiveness, the lottery little contributes to social development, with only 12% of revenues going to social policies. The CEF only transfers the collected amounts and has no direct participation in the planning, implementation, assessment and monitoring of the political actions developed.

Finally, the results of the present study help understand how the federal lottery composes the payment of the EDMF's debts and the funding of sports political policies in Brazil. They also suggest the possibility of new approaches for further research on Brazilian federal sports lotteries and their role as a political action in the State.

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Publication Dates

• Publication in this collection
  22 June 2020
• Date of issue
  2020

History

• Received
  25 Jan 2019
• Reviewed
  10 Oct 2019
• Accepted
  12 Dec 2019