This work presents the development of a model to predict cracking progression in hot-mix asphalt pavements, based on information obtained from a database maintained by State of Bahia Department of Transportation, with data collected in 2004. A factorial design was performed to arrange the data available in order to facilitate the statistical analysis. The factors considered were age of the pavement, traffic volume and rainfall. The model developed in this work to predict cracking progression was compared to other existing models through the evaluation of the fit to the observed data, based on its evolution over time. The performance model developed in this work was compared to performance models developed by Marcon (1996) and Paterson (1987) presented the best results, in an evidence of its applicability to other highway networks.
pavements management systems; performance models; distresses; cracking