Abstract
This article assesses the tendency to municipal corruption based on counting models, which have as response variables the findings recorded in 1600 audit reports of the Controladoria-Geral da União, CGU, referring to the Brazilian municipalities. The sensitivities of these irregularities were estimated an tested as a function of the volume of resources inspected, to their stage of development, to the role of social control, to its demographic characteristics, to the contagion effect among neighboring municipalities, to the second mandate of the mayor and his political party. The results have shown that the municipalities with medium and severe findings are those that receive a high percentage of resource transfers, they also have weak social control and a low level of municipal development, they are not sparsely populated and have neighboring municipalities with corruption problems. Sixteen medium irregularities and six serious irregularities are found of every R$ 100 million of resources received by a municipality.
Keywords
municipal corruption; resource decentralization; count models
