The electoral volatility of local legislators at the municipal level in Brazil (2000-2016)

Abstract

The central aim of this research is to demonstrate that the local (sociodemographic and institutional) context helps explain changes in voters’ vote choice in support of different political parties. This research analyzes the electoral volatility index for local legislators in four municipal elections—2000, 2004, 2008, 2012 and 2016—with a sample of all Brazilian cities. This work contributes to the literature about both electoral behavior and party systems. The results show that the contextual variables have a more intense effect in small municipalities and at the beginning of the analyzed period.

electoral volatility; municipal elections; electoral behavior; party systems; local legislator