Economic voting in Brazilian presidential elections: evidence with panel data from municipalities in São Paulo

Fernandes, Ivan Filipe de Almeida Lopes; Fernandes, Gustavo Andrey de Almeida Lopes

doi:10.1590/1984-9260886

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Artigo • Organ. Soc. 26 (88) • Jan-Mar 2019 • https://doi.org/10.1590/1984-9260886 copy

Economic voting in Brazilian presidential elections: evidence with panel data from municipalities in São Paulo

Voto econômico nas eleições presidenciais brasileiras: evidências com dados em painel de municípios de São Paulo

Authorship SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

Abstract

This paper uses a new data panel of 625 Brazilian municipalities over 5 election years to analyze the influence of the local level economic performance on the proportion of votes obtained by the incumbent in national elections. We examine municipalities from the State of São Paulo, the most populous Brazilian state, using fixed-effects and random- effects models. The results suggest that the performance of the local economy is relevant in the national elections. Apart from that, the results also suggest that the mayors play an important role in the national elections when it comes to transfer votes that are favorable to the coalition in power and that the richest municipalities tend to be more opposition prone.

Keywords:
Elections; Voting behavior; Brazil

		Brazil		Sao Paulo
Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Votes	%
1994 Election
Fernando Henrique Cardoso*	PSDB	34,314,961	54.2%	8,679,287	55.7%
Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva	PT	17,122,127	27.1%	4,205,530	27.0%
Eneas Ferreira Carneiro	PRONA	4,671,457	7.4%	1,380,690	8.9%
Orestes Quercia	PMDB	2,772,121	4.4%	895,318	5.8%
Leonel Brizola	PDT	2,015,836	3.2%	247,152	1.6%
Esperidiao Amin	PPR	1,739,894	2.8%	67,747	0.4%
Others	-	625,935	1.0%	94,599	0.6%
1998 Election
Fernando Henrique Cardoso*	PSDB	35,936,382	53.1%	9,736,728	0.6%	59.9%
Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva	PT	21,475,211	31.7%	4,688,677	28.8%
Ciro Gomes	PPS	7,426,187	11.0%	1,208,718	7.4%
Eneas Carneiro	PRONA	1,447,089	2.1%	389,592	2.4%
Others	-	1,437,434	2.1%	235,103	1.4%
2002 Election
Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva	PT	39,455,233	46.4%	9,106,914	46.1%
Jose Serra*	PSDB	19,705,445	23.2%	5,633,365	28.5%
Garotinho	PSB	15,180,097	17.9%	2,781,712	14.1%
Ciro Gomes	PPS	10,170,882	12.0%	2,087,617	10.6%
Others	-	440,855	0.5%	139,795	0.7%
2006 Election
Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva*	PT	46,662,365	48.6%	8091867	36.8%
Geraldo Alckmin	PSDB	39,968,369	41.6%	11927802	54.2%
Heloísa Helena	PSOL	6,575,393	6.8%	1558639	7.1%
Cristovam Buarque	PDT	2,538,844	2.6%	385119	1.8%
Others	-	251,762	0.3%	31,477	0.1%
2010 Election
Dilma Rousseff*	PT	47,651,434	47.0%	8,740,949	37.3%
Jose Serra	PSDB	33,132,283	32.7%	9,524,050	40.7%
Marina Silva	PV	19,636,359	19.4%	4,865,828	20.8%
Plinio de Arruda Sampaio	PSOL	886,816	0.9%	239,173	1.0%
Others	-	150,682	0.1%	56,299	0.2%

Continuous variables	Mean	Median	Standard deviation	Min.	Max.
votes	46.590	44.584	16.063	12.981	85.462
encons	0.034	0.030	0.099	-0,611	3.029
lencons	9.870	9.547	1.790	5.609	16.960
Fpop6	10.820	10.690	2.849	3.410	22.380
lrim	2.920	2.905	0.584	0.693	5.116
ltotalexp	7.350	7.323	0.417	6.014	9.766
linvestexp	5.160	5.122	0.737	2.254	8.142
lstaffexp	6.410	6.411	1.673	0.476	13.630
Dummy variables	Frequency	0	1
colmayor		2008	1117
Metrop		2790	335

votes	OLS	RE	FE	OLS_year	RE_year	FE_year
ncos	10.777**	10.777**	14.952***	4.010*	4.007*	4.357*
	3.945	4.019	4.621	1.581	1.586	1.979
lencons	-2.409***	-2.409***	-9.766***	-1.446***	-1.447***	-2.789**
	0.209	0.198	1.428	0.142	0.142	1.559
fpop60	-1.288***	-1.288***	-6.087***	0.095	0.096	0.046
	0.108	0.116	0.362	0.082	0.082	0.375
colmayor	6.720***	6.720***	6.187***	1.800***	1.805***	1.908***
	0.561	0.556	0.586	0.409	0.409	0.458
lrim	5.066***	5.066***	4.457***	0.157	0.155	0.169
	0.487	0.518	0.619	0.327	0.327	0.424
ltotalexp	-9.129***	-9.129***	2.703	-1.693*	-1.731*	-4.420*
	0.909	0.966	2.063	0.702	0.701	1.753
linvestexp	2.659***	2.659***	-0.5	0.515	0.524	0.889*
	0.464	0.437	0.538	0.325	0.325	0.426
lstaffexp	-0.385	-0.386*	3.730***	0.017	0.019	1.297
	0.211	0.192	1.007	0.127	0.127	0.881
metrop	-1.121	-1.122		1.169*	1.176*
	0.992	0.993		0.536	0.536
d1994				20.704***	20.692***	19.298***
				0.748	0.747	2.026
d1998				25.724***	25.718***	24.847***
				0.642	0.642	1.388
d2002				-4.023***	-4.03***	-4.846***
				0.602	0.602	1.143
d2006				-2.743***	-2.745***	-3.065***
				0.349	0.348	0.56
_cons	122.690***	122.69***	152.465***	60.221***	60.449***	84.873***
	6.433	7.288	13.294	4.906	4.894	20.59
N	2922	2922	2922	2922	2922	2922

votes	OLS	RE	FE
encos	3.529	3.529	6.729
	2.209	2.247	4.756
gdpgr	3.877*	3.877*	8.125**
	1.727	1.741	3.086
lencons	-1.556***	-1.556***	-4.421
	0.238	0.166	4.417
fpop60	-0.249*	-0.249**	0.380
	0.124	0.088	1.163
colmayor	0.967	0.967	1.361
	0.601	0.606	1.144
lrim	-0.211	-0.211	-1.367
	0.519	0.493	1.012
ltotalexp	0.555	0.555	10.610
	1.232	0.869	7.090
linvestexp	0.779	0.779	1.712
	0.573	0.502	1.274
lstaffexp	-0.048	-0.048	1.889
	0.210	0.136	1.859
metrop	2.162	2.162***	-
	1.154	0.547	-
_cons	45.085***	45.085***	-21.078
	8.771	5.666	48.884
N	1160	1160	1160

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[TFN1] * The incumbents are the candidates with names in bold and shaded line

votes	proportion of valid votes obtained by the incumbent in the municipality
encons	rate of growth of total energy consumption per capita in the municipality in the election year
lencons	log of the total energy consumption of the municipality (MWh)
fpop60	proportion of the population over 60 in the municipality
lrim	log of the rate of infant mortality in the election year (per 1,000 live births)
ltotalexp	log of total municipal expenses per capita in the election year, measured in R$ 2010 million
linvestexp	log of municipal expenditure on investments per capita in the election year, measured in R$ 2010 million
lstaffexp	log of the municipal expenses on staff per capita in the election year, measured in R$ 2010 million
colmayor	dummy relating to the party of the mayor that is a member of the electoral coalition of the incumbent (1-member; 0-non-member)
d94/98/02/06/10	dummies for year
drsi ... drsxvii	dummies for mesoregions (Regional Health Divisions)
metrop	municipality belonging to a metropolitan region in São Paulo (1-belonging; 0-not belonging)