The new regulatory framework in Brazilian electricity sector implemented several changes in the way energy is traded. Energy required by all captive consumers is now centrally purchased by the government. Distributors are only responsible for demand estimation in their concession areas. In case estimations prove wrong, distributors are punished differently for under or overestimations. Underestimations are punished harder. In this paper we simulate energy purchasing costs for a hypothetical utility in which random percentages of the forecasted demand are used. We also develop a resampling scheme for the PLD (Settlement Price), which is used to calculate penalties incurred by utilities. We conclude that, despite a very sophisticated regulatory framework, the system is fragile because changes in the inputs of the NEWAVE software (used to calculate the marginal cost of operations (CMO), which directly affects the PLD) yield very different punishment fees for a given (fixed) utility acquisition strategy.
energy auctions; simulation; economic regulation
