A Bayesian binary regression model is developed to predict death of patients after acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are used to make inference and to evaluate Bayesian binary regression models. A model building strategy based on Bayes factor is proposed and aspects of model validation are extensively discussed in the paper, including the posterior distribution for the c-index and the analysis of residuals. Risk assessment, based on variables easily available within minutes of the patients' arrival at the hospital, is very important to decide the course of the treatment. The identified model reveals itself strongly reliable and accurate, with a rate of correct classification of 88% and a concordance index of 83%.
mortality probability prediction; model selection in binary regression; model diagnostic and residual analysis
