Given the relevance of health plans in the provision of healthcare and their high importance for individual and business customers, as well as healthcare professionals and companies, it is important to predict financial capacity of health plans to effectively fulfill their obligations. We develop an insolvency prediction model specific for health plans. Through a logistic regression of 17 financial measures of around 600 Brazilian health plan carriers, we develop a one-year insolvency prediction model, and its accuracy is analyzed and contrasted to that of a generic corporate model, Altman's Z" score.
Insolvency; healthcare management; health plans; healthcare financial capacity; logistic regression
