INFLUENCE OF THE EXPERIENCE OF MANAGERS IN THE INFORMATION SEARCHING ON UNK UNKS IN INNOVATIVE PROJECTS

ABSTRACT

Purpose:

understand whether the most experienced managers would incur in the fallacy of centrality, neglecting the search for information on unknown unknowns in innovative projects to sensemaking what happens in the project context.

Originality/gap/relevance/implications:

the fallacy of centrality, theory formulated by Westrum, was observed in the action of various experts such as scientists, medical practitioners, and firefighters. It is intended to expand this context, analyzing the management of innovative projects in the business environment. Based on this assessment, we will suggest methods and techniques that can be adopted to anticipate the perception of occurrence of unknown unknowns, in order to increase the probability of success of the projects.

Key methodological aspects:

a field survey was conducted in which 16 projects were selected. In such projects, 35 unanticipated events, which represent the unknown unknowns, were identified. Based on interviews, the data analysis was initially qualitative, followed by non-parametric statistical tests.

Summary of key results:

despite the relevance of the search for information to deal with the unknown unknowns, its adoption has proved it is inversely correlated with the average length of professional experience of managers. Biases, such as anchoring, limited awareness, escalation of commitment, and overconfidence, hampered the perception of gaps in their knowledge.

Key considerations/conclusions:

the recommendations of this study are predominantly practices: awareness of stakeholders on knowledge gaps, a favorable environment for innovation, and use of learning practices during the project.

KEYWORDS
Management of innovative Project; Unforeseeable uncertainty; Fallacy of centrality; Decision making; Unknown unknowns