Partisan alignment and requests for federal transfers in Brazil

Meireles, Fernando

doi:10.1590/0034-761220170282

Fernando Meireles

Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais / Departamento de Ciência Política, Belo Horizonte / MG — Brazil

http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7027-2058

Fernando Meireles - PhD Candidate in Political Science at the Federal University of Minas Gerais and Researcher at the Center for Legislative Studies (CEL). E-mail: fmeireles@ufmg.br

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Gráfico A
Efeito causal do alinhamento com partidos da coalizão em variáveis pré-tratamento

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Gráfico B
Efeito do alinhamento com o partido na Presidência sobre variáveis pré-tratamento

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Graph 1
Proposals submitted by municipal to federal governments between 2009 and 2016, per level of alignment between the levels of government

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Graph 2
Results of McCrary test

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Graph 3
Alignment with the party in the presidency and proposals of agreement with the federal government submitted by municipalities

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Graph 4 Alignment
with parties that are part of the coalition ruling the federal government and proposals of agreement with the federal government submitted by municipalities

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Graph A
Causal effect of the alignment with parties of the coalition in pre-treatment variables

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Graph B
Effect of the alignment with the party in the presidency on pre-treatment variables

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Table 1
Parties in the federal government coalition in the period, per number of chairs in the Chamber of Deputies

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Table 2
Descriptive statistics of the samples

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Table 3
Effect of the party alignment with the federal government on the municipalities’ proposals of agreements

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Table 4
Effectof the party alignment with the federal government on the submission of proposals by the municipalities (excluded those related to amendments from members of Congress)

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Table 5
Party alignment with the federal government and proposals submitted between 2009 and 2016

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

Coalition	Party	# of Chairs (at the beginning)	# of Chairs (at the end)
Lula (2^nd mandate)	PMDB	91	89
	PT	82	77
	PR	41	43
	PP	42	40
	PSB	29	27
	PDT	23	23
	PTB	26	23
	PCdoB	13	12
	PRB	1	8
Rousseff (1^st mandate)	PT	77	87
	PMDB	87	79
	PP	40	38
	PR	43	35
	PSB	27	28
	PDT	23	27
	PCdoB	12	14

Variable	OLS	RDD
Variable	Complete Sample	Sample PT	Sample Coalition
Quota FPM (mean)	14,258,565.00	12,637,570.00	10,813,870.00
Quota FPM (deviation)	25,685,818.00	10,060,550.00	7,538,176.00
HH (mean)	0.48	0.50	0.51
HH (deviation)	0.10	0.10	0.09
IPTU (mean)	4,051,923.00	1,628,878.00	707,565.90
IPTU (deviation)	79,756,475.00	6,653,695.00	3,899,222.00
Margin of votes (mean)	0.16	0	0.02
Margin of votes (deviation)	0.17	0.26	0.24
N^o voters (mean)	24,300.61	17,353.34	12,324.29
N^o voters (deviation)	148,299.50	34,708.62	20,058.90
Submitted requests (mean)	38.76	38.05	39.63
Submitted requests (deviation)	39.90	35.71	38.45
PIB (mean)	895,976.50	598,432.90	313,717.70
PIB (deviation)	9,440,101.00	2,513,548.00	1,015,794.00
N^o inhabitants (mean)	34,386.62	24,319.73	16,915.80
N^o inhabitants (deviation)	203,141.70	51,855.26	29,497.54
Amount requested (mean)	45,607,453.00	33,276,014.00	38,070,997.00
Amount requested (deviation)	213,357,309.00	54,012,779.00	89,615,379.00
Observation	10,784	742	3,492

	Dependent variable		Standard Errors	Bandwidth	P-value	N
PT	Number of proposals	16.261*	5.510	0.14	0	386
	Proposals per capita	0.002*	0	0.14	0.04	415
	Amount requested (log)	0.451*	0.220	0.15	0.04	422
	Amount per capita (log)	0.611*	0.230	0.15	0.01	420
Coalition	Number of proposals	-0.815	3.100	0.15	0.79	2,515
	Proposals per capita	0	0	0.13	0.52	2,328
	Amount requested (log)	0.129	0.100	0.15	0.18	2,583
	Amount per capita (log)	0.206*	0.100	0.15	0.04	2,608

	Dependent variable		Standard-Error	Bandwidth	P-value	N
PT	# of proposals	16.321*	5.120	0.14	0	389
	Proposals per capita	0.001	0	0.13	0.09	378
	Amount requested (log)	0.179	0.360	0.13	0.62	382
	Amount per capita (log)	0.565*	0.270	0.15	0.04	427
Coalition	# of proposals	-4.917	3.350	0.15	0.14	2,192
	Proposals per capita	-0.001	0	0.13	0.37	1,937
	Amount requested (log)	0.132	0.150	0.15	0.37	2,170
	Amount per capita (log)	0.163	0.120	0.18	0.16	2,380

Dependent variable	#of agreements	*Amount requested (log)*
Dependent variable	(1)	(2)
Coalition	1.094	0.050
	(1.185)	(0.038)
PCdoB	1.683	0.233^*
	(5.051)	(0.137)
PMDB	3.614***	0.136***
	(1.209)	(0.043)
PP	2.089**	0.011
	(1.024)	(0.042)
PR	1.331	0.087*
	(0.863)	(0.044)
PT	7.009***	0.210***
	(1.303)	(0.050)
GDP (log)	-0.070	0.055***
	(0.830)	(0.019)
IPTU (log)	0.710***	0.032***
	(0.246)	(0.010)
Population (log)	8.708***	0.423***
	(0.895)	(0.045)
Constant	-36.915***	12.093***
	(7.837)	(0.309)
Fixed-Effects, year	Yes	Yes
Fixed-Effects, state	Yes	Yes
N	9,511	9,511
R² Adjusted	0.373	0.418
Residual Standard Error (df = 9475)	31.406	0.991

{m a r g i n}_{i t} = \frac{{V o t e s f o r a l i g n e d c a n d i d a t e}_{i t} - {a l i g n e d c a n d i d a t e}_{i t}}{{V o t e s f o r a l i g n e d c a n d i d a t e}_{i t} + {V o t e s f o r n o n - a l i g n e d c a n d i d a t e}_{i t}}

[1] Fernando Meireles - PhD Candidate in Political Science at the Federal University of Minas Gerais and Researcher at the Center for Legislative Studies (CEL). E-mail: fmeireles@ufmg.br

Brasil

Brasil

Partisan alignment and requests for federal transfers in Brazil

Abstract