Two questions are addressed in this paper. The first one is the determination of periods of fiscal consolidation and fiscal stimulus. The second one is the importance of the composition of fiscal adjustments for their success, defined as a declining debt to GDP ratio. We, characterize 1994 and 1999 as points of fiscal consolidation. The 1994 consolidation can not be considered successful since after that period the debt to GDP ratio has grown continuously. The adjustment can be characterized as a type 2 adjustment (Alesina and Perotti (1997)) in the sense that cuts were made mainly in public investment, while government wages and transfers remained almost unchanged. This type of adjustment usually has a low likelihood of being a success.
fiscal adjustment; magnitude; composition; Markov chain
