This study aimed to analyze cropping patterns on a farm, aiming to optimize the use of water resources and maximization of financial return, for a case study in Southern Agreste Pernambucano. A linear programming model was used with a planning horizon of 3 years, implemented in spreadsheet Microsoft® Excel. The model aimed to maximize the total net present value of the enterprise. For risk analysis, it was two complementary techniques were used: the risk simulation, proceeded with the software @Risk, and sensitivity analysis. In the first cropping pattern (PC1), with monthly water restriction for irrigation of 8,500 m³, the maximum total net present value (VPLt), was R$ 8,771.10 (ha year)-1; in the second cropping pattern (PC2), with monthly water restriction of 4,000 m³, the VPLt was R $ 8,228.77 (ha year)-1. It was observed in the risk analysis that the found values of VPLt were positive and closed for the two cropping patterns, making evident the absence of expectation of financial failure, but with considerable reduction of irrigation water demand for the PC2, pointing out the potential of the methodology applied to the water resources management in the region.
linear programming; Monte Carlo method; net present value
