OBJECTIVE: To analyze trends of AIDS epidemic among adults, from 1985 to 1997, in the city of São Paulo, focussing primarily on intravenous drug users (IDU), owing to the major impact of the epidemic on this population group. METHODOLOGY: Data from the AIDS surveillance of São Paulo State were analyzed. The statistical method applied to analyze the time series of the 8,558 cases of AIDS among IDU and of the 16,756 cases among non-IDU was polynomial regression. RESULTS: From 1985 to 1992 there was a increase in AIDS cases both in IDU and non-IDU. Thereafter there was a decrease in cases among IDU, while cases among non-IDU leveled off owing to the constant growth trend among heterosexual men and women. Adjusted regression coefficients (R²a) for all models remained higher than 70%, and the second-order (parabolic) models explained better the trends, except in the case of heterosexual non-IDU, in which the model was linear. CONCLUSION: At the end of the period under study the data suggest a decrease in the epidemic among IDU, while the trend among non-IDU keep flat at high level, and showed a constant increase among heterosexual.
Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome, trends; Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome, epidemiology; Substance abuse, intravenous
