Temporal trend of mortality in old people in cities in the state of Acre

Abstract

Objective

To analyze the temporal trend of mortality in the old people population in selected municipalities in the five regional development areas in the state of Acre, Brazil.

Method

Descriptive, ecological study of time series, which used data from the Mortality Information System (SIM), in which the universe of deaths occurred in old people, recorded in the cities of Acre from 1996 to 2015 was selected. Crude and age-adjusted mortality rates were calculated using the direct method and the world population as a reference. For the analysis of trends, the annual percentage change in mortality was estimated with a 95% confidence level using the Joinpoint Regression Program software.

Results

The general mortality trend was decreasing in Rio Branco and with fluctuations in the other municipalities investigated. The main causes of death were diseases of the circulatory, respiratory and neoplasms. In Rio Branco, mortality rates standardized by age in diseases of the circulatory system decreased by 2.26% (p<0.001) per year and neoplasms showed an increasing and constant trend with an annual variation of 1.02% (p=0.010).

Conclusion

The study showed evidence of epidemiological, geographical and social polarization in the behavior of mortality trends. Rio Branco, the state capital, presented similar patterns to those of the developed Brazilian regions. On the other hand, the other municipalities showed considerable fluctuations in trends that may be related to the high proportion of ill-defined causes. These findings can assist in the planning of strategic actions and hypothesis suggestions for further studies.

Keywords
Cause of Death; Time Serie Studies; Health of the Elderly; Mortality; Information Systems