Trends in Extreme Climate Indices for Pará State, Brazil

Santos, Carlos Antonio Costa dos; Oliveira, Verônica Gabriella de

doi:10.1590/0102-778632120150053

Carlos Antonio Costa dos Santos Autor de correspondência: Carlos Antonio Costa dos Santos, carlos.santos@ufcg.edu.br, carlostorm@gmail.com.

Unidade Acadêmica de Ciências Atmosféricas, Universidade Federal de Campina Grande, Campina Grande, PB, Brazil

Verônica Gabriella de Oliveira

Unidade Acadêmica de Ciências Atmosféricas, Universidade Federal de Campina Grande, Campina Grande, PB, Brazil

Autor de correspondência: Carlos Antonio Costa dos Santos, carlos.santos@ufcg.edu.br, carlostorm@gmail.com.

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Figura 1
a) Location of the study area on the map of Brazil and b) spatial distribution of weather stations in the state of Pará.

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Figura 2
Spatial variability of trends in extreme climate indices dependent of daily maximum and minimum temperatures for the state of Pará, for the period 1970 to 2006, where: a) SU, b) TR, c) TXx, d) TXn, e) TNx, f) TNn and g) DTR. The symbols correspond to (+) increasing trend not statistically significant, (+) increasing trend with statistical significance (O) decreasing trend not statistically significant and (•) decreasing trend with statistical significance, all with the significance at 5% level (p ≤ 0.05).

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Figura 3
Spatial variability of trends in extreme climate indices dependent of precipitation for the state of Pará, for the period 1970 to 2006, where: a) RX1day, b) RX5day, c) SDII, d) R10mm. The symbols correspond to (+) increasing trend not statistically significant, (+) increasing trend with statistical significance (O) decreasing trend not statistically significant and (•) decreasing trend with statistical significance, all with the significance at 5% level (p ≤ 0.05).

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Figura 4
Spatial variability of trends in extreme climate indices dependent of precipitation for the state of Pará, for the period 1970 to 2006, where: a) R20mm, b) R50mm, c) CDD, d) CWD, e) R95p, f) R99p and g) PRCPTOT. The symbols correspond to (+) increasing trend not statistically significant, (+) increasing trend with statistical significance (O) decreasing trend not statistically significant and (•) decreasing trend with statistical significance, all with the significance at 5% level (p ≤ 0.05).

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Figura 5
Seasonal variability of climatic extreme indices statistically significant for the city of Belém-PA, for the period 1970 to 2006, where: a) DTR, b) TX10p, c) TX90p, d) TN10p, e) TN90p.

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Tabela 1
Geographical coordinates of 13 locations in the state of Pará.

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Tabela 2
Definition of climatic extreme indices depending on temperature and precipitation used in this study.

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Tabela 3
Trends in climatic extreme indices of temperature for 13 locations in the state of Pará, for the period 1970-2006.

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Tabela 4
Trends in climatic extreme indices of precipitation for 13 locations in the state of Pará, for the period 1970-2006.

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Tabela 5
Seasonal trends in climatic extremes indices of temperature and precipitation for the city of Belém, for the period 1970-2006.

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Stations	Latitude	Longitude	Altitude(m)
Altamira	−3.20	−52.20	109
Belém	−1.45	−48.50	10
Belterra	−2.63	−54.93	152
Breves	−1.68	−50.48	40
Cameta	−2.24	−49.49	159
Conceição	−8.25	−49.26	165
Itaituba	−4.27	−55.98	15
Marabá	−5.36	−49.11	84
Monte Alegre	−2.00	−54.06	38
Óbidos	−1.91	−55.51	45
Porto de Moz	−1.74	−52.23	15
São Félix do Xingú	−6.64	−51.99	220
Traucauteua	−1.07	−46.90	20

Indices	Name	Definition	Units
SU	Summer Days	Annual count when TX(daily maximum) > 25 °C	Days
ID	Iced Days	Annual count when TX(daily maximum) < 0 °C	Days
TR	Tropical Nights	Annual count when TN(daily minimum) > 20 °C	Days
FD	Frost Days	Annual count when TN(daily minimum) < 0 °C	Days
GSL	Growing Season Length	Annual (1^st Jan to 31^st Dec) count between first span of at least 6 days with mean temperature > 5 °C and first span after July 1 of 6 days with mean temperature < 5 °C	Days
TXx	Max Tmax	Monthly maximum value of daily maximum temperature	°C
TNx	Max Tmin	Monthly maximum value of daily minimum temperature	°C
TXn	Min Tmax	Monthly minimum value of daily maximum temperature	°C
TNn	Min Tmin	Monthly minimum value of daily minimum temperature	°C
WSDI	Warm Spell Duration Indicator	Annual count of days with at least 6 consecutive days when TX > 90th percentile	Days
CSDI	Cold Spell Duration Indicator	Annual count of days with at least 6 consecutive days when TN < 10th percentile	Days
DTR	Diurnal Temperature Range	Monthly mean difference between TX and TN	°C
Rx1day	Max 1-day precipitation amount	Monthly maximum 1-day precipitation	mm
Rx5day	Max 5-day precipitation amount	Monthly maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation	mm
SDII	Simple daily intensity index	Annual mean precipitation when PRCP ≥ 1.0 mm	mm
R10mm	Number of heavy precipitation days	Annual count of days when PRCP ≥ 10 mm	Days
R20mm	Number of heavy precipitation days	Annual count of days when PRCP ≥ 20 mm	Days
R50mm	Number of heavy precipitation days	Annual count of days when PRCP ≥ 50 mm	Days
CDD	Consecutive dry days	Maximum number of consecutive days with RR < 1 mm	Days
CWD	Consecutive wet days	Maximum number of consecutive days with RR ≥ 1 mm	Days
R95p	Very wet days	Annual total PRCP when RR > 95p	mm
R99p	Extremely wet days	Annual total PRCP when RR > 99p	mm
PRCPTOT	Annual total wet-day precipitation	Annual total PRCP in wet days (RR ≥ 1 mm)	mm

Stations	SU (day)	TR (day)	TXx (°C)	TXn (°C)	TNx (°C)	TNn (°C)	DTR (°C)
Altamira	−0.03	0.20	0.09	0.03	0.06	−0.01	0.05
Belém	0.00	0.69	0.00	0.05	0.02	0.10	−0.02
Belterra	0.16	4.02	0.00	0.06	0.01	0.12	−0.03
Breves	−0.01	4.02	0.01	0.02	0.04	0.13	−0.10
Cametá	−0.01	0.01	0.03	0.04	0.02	0.04	−0.01
Conceição do Araguaia	0.08	5.54	0.05	−0.02	0.06	0.23	−0.08
Itaituba	0.24	1.70	−0.03	0.03	0.01	0.23	−0.04
Marabá	0.07	4.98	0.08	0.02	0.05	0.14	−0.02
Monte Alegre	−0.01	3.41	−0.12	0.01	0.04	0.35	−0.10
Óbidos	−0.10	8.34	−0.20	−0.03	−0.02	0.30	−0.18
Porto de Moz	0.01	2.60	−0.02	0.04	0.04	0.12	−0.06
São Félix do Xingú	0.13	−7.68	0.01	0.06	−0.11	0.12	0.07
Traucauteua	0.28	3.93	0.03	0.04	0.03	0.10	−0.02

Stations	Rx1day (mm)	Rx5day (mm)	SDII (mm)	R10mm (dias)	R20mm (day)	R50mm (day)	CDD (day)	CWD (day)	R95p (mm)	R99p (mm)	PRCPTOT (mm)
Altamira	0.84	0.41	−0.01	−0.09	−0.15	−0.05	−0.07	−0.07	−2.33	−0.45	−5.44
Belém	0.57	0.47	0.05	0.30	0.26	0.03	0.05	−0.01	4.09	0.66	9.00
Belterra	−0.05	−0.66	0.03	−0.24	−0.07	−0.06	0.65	−0.10	−4.87	−1.27	−8.19
Breves	−0.02	0.82	0.02	0.30	−0.02	0.01	0.09	0.22	1.23	−0.33	4.93
Cametá	−1.72	−1.39	0.01	−0.10	0.06	0.00	−0.06	0.08	−1.53	−2.49	−2.05
C. do Araguaia	0.96	1.47	0.06	−0.20	−0.01	0.05	0.96	−0.03	6.71	4.40	1.98
Itaituba	1.00	1.39	0.03	0.38	0.16	0.05	−0.68	−0.03	5.08	6.77	10.52
Marabá	0.26	−0.64	0.07	−0.29	−0.14	0.21	0.79	0.08	6.53	0.14	−0.05
Monte Alegre	−0.82	0.50	0.03	0.59	0.59	−0.09	−0.89	0.12	−6.74	−8.85	15.24
Óbidos	1.35	1.00	0.02	0.11	0.31	−0.01	0.06	−0.19	2.32	2.89	12.24
Porto de Moz	−1.29	−1.31	−0.08	−0.42	−0.11	−0.06	0.04	0.17	−7.54	−8.55	−11.22
S. F. do Xingú	3.70	3.34	0.05	−0.55	−0.03	0.02	0.69	−0.27	8.34	10.57	0.54
Traucauteua	0.06	−2.13	−0.03	−0.15	−0.12	−0.08	0.34	−0.40	−5.53	−5.56	−7.75

Indices	Summer	Fall	Winter	Spring
TNn	0.046	0.055	0.056	0.048
TNx	0.039	0.038	0.038	0.034
TXn	0.029	0.026	0.040	0.042
TXx	0.004	0.011	0.014	0.023
TN10p	−1.116	−1.023	−1.090	−1.085
TN90p	0.649	0.657	0.878	0.754
TX10p	−0.159	−0.317	−0.369	−0.351
TX90p	0.396	0.366	0.600	0.788
DTR	−0.020	−0.028	−0.026	−0.022
Rx1day	−0.032	−0.240	0.195	0.120
Rx5day	−0.009	0.289	0.100	0.118

Z (t) = {\begin{matrix} \begin{matrix} \frac{S - 1}{\sqrt{V a r (S)}}, & if & S > 0 \end{matrix} \\ \begin{matrix} 0, & if & S > 0 \end{matrix} \\ \begin{matrix} \frac{S + 1}{\sqrt{V a r (S)}}, & if & S > 0 \end{matrix} \end{matrix}

[1] Autor de correspondência: Carlos Antonio Costa dos Santos, carlos.santos@ufcg.edu.br, carlostorm@gmail.com.

Brasil

Brasil

Trends in Extreme Climate Indices for Pará State, Brazil

Tendência de Índices de Extremos Climáticos para o Estado do Pará, Brasil

Abstract