Análise de Frequência Regional para a Previsão de Vazões Máximas em Bacias não Calibradas da Amazônia Peruana

Lujano, Efrain; Belizario, German; Lujano, Apolinario

Efrain Lujano Corresponding autor: Efrain Lujano, elujano28@gmail.com.

Escuela Profesional de Ingeniería Agrícola, Universidad Nacional del Altiplano, Puno, Perú.

http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6543-8324

German Belizario

Escuela Profesional de Ingeniería Agrícola, Universidad Nacional del Altiplano, Puno, Perú.

http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9805-3714

Apolinario Lujano

Autoridad Nacional del Agua, Puno, Perú.

http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9386-1613

Corresponding autor: Efrain Lujano, elujano28@gmail.com.

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Figure 1
Location of the study area and spatial distribution of hydrometric stations.

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Figure 2
Flow diagram of the regional frequency analysis for the prediction of maximum flows in ungauged basins.

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Figure 3
Identification of homogeneous regions a) Ward's dendrogram, b) k-means and c) Andrews curves.

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Figure 4
Dispersion of the L-moments ratios of the samples, a) L-skewness with L-CV and b) L-skewness with L-kurtosis.

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Figure 5
a) Relationship diagram of L-moments for basins based on site and regional L-moments and b) regional growth curve.

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Figure 6
On-site estimated quantiles with uncertainty limits for the GEV distribution, a) TAM, b) TAB, c) NAZ, d) BE, e) BO, f) PU and g) SR.

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Figure 7
Verification of assumptions of a) homoscedasticity and b) normality of residuals.

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Figure 8
a) Linear regression relationships between the index-flood and the basin area, b) prediction of maximum flow quantiles in ungauged basins as a function of the basin area.

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Table 1
Characteristics of hydrometric stations.

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Table 2
Basin area (

A

), functions to estimate instantaneous maximum flows (Q_p) and index-flood (

\bar{Q}

), mean annual precipitation (MAP), mean annual temperature (MAT).

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Table 3
Summary of discordancy statistics and regional heterogeneity test for 7 homogeneous basins.

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Basin number	River	Station	Latitude [°]	Longitude [°]	Data range
1	Amazonas	Tamishiyacu (TAM)	-4.000	-73.160	1985-2010
2	Ucayali	km 105 (KM)	-13.183	-72.534	1958-2012
3	Chotano	Chotano Lajas (CHL)	-6.560	-78.741	1979-2008
4	Llaucano	Llaucano Corellama (LLC)	-6.687	-78.518	1980-2011
5	Napo	Bellavista (BE)	-3.480	-73.080	1990-2009
6	Ucayali	Pucallpa (PU)	-8.378	-74.533	1988-2009
7	Amazonas	Tabatinga (TAB)	-4.250	-69.933	1983-2017
8	Amazonas	Nazareth (NAZ)	-4.121	-70.036	1990-2004
9	Marañon	Borja (BO)	-4.470	-77.548	1987-2016
10	Marañon	San Regis (SR)	-4.516	-73.908	1999-2014

Station	A [km²]	Q_p [m³/s]	$\bar{Q}$ [m³/s]	MAP [mm]	MAT [°C]
TAM	719917.8	$Q_{p} = 1.047 Q_{m}$	48594.2	1669.0	21.4
KM	9613.3	$Q_{p} = 1.170 Q_{m}$	640.8	737.0	10.0
CHL	360.4	$Q_{p} = 1.455 Q_{m}$	74.4	897.8	15.1
LLC	608.7	$Q_{p} = 1.389 Q_{m}$	117.8	839.5	12.7
BE	99779.4	$Q_{p} = 1.084 Q_{m}$	11820.2	2080.5	25.7
PU	260890.0	$Q_{p} = 1.063 Q_{m}$	20164.4	1456.1	17.3
TAB	877478.6	$Q_{p} = 1.044 Q_{m}$	55092.9	1759.5	22.2
NAZ	877066.5	$Q_{p} = 1.044 Q_{m}$	54278.8	1759.5	22.2
BO	114529.8	$Q_{p} = 1.081 Q_{m}$	13178.4	1205.3	19.6
SR	356882.9	$Q_{p} = 1.057 Q_{m}$	29042.3	1757.8	23.0

Station	D_i	D_c	H
TAM	0.58
BE	0.98
PU	1.32
TAB	0.50	2.76	-1.25
NAZ	0.25
BO	0.84
SR	1.15

V = {\{\frac{\sum_{i = 1}^{N} {n_{i} (t^{(i)} - t^{R})}^{2}}{\sum_{i = 1}^{N} n_{i}}\}}^{1 / 2}

σ_{4} = {[{(N_{s i m} - 1)}^{- 1} \{\sum_{m = 1}^{N_{s i m}} {(t_{4}^{[m]} - t_{4}^{R})}^{2} - N_{s i m} B_{4}^{2}\}]}^{1 / 2}

R^{2} = \frac{{(\sum_{i = 1}^{n} (O_{i} - \bar{O}) (S_{i} - \bar{S}))}^{2}}{{(\sum_{i = 1}^{n} (O_{i} - \bar{O})}^{2} {(\sum_{i = 1}^{n} (S_{i} - \bar{S}))}^{2}}

[1] Corresponding autor: Efrain Lujano, elujano28@gmail.com.

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Análise de Frequência Regional para a Previsão de Vazões Máximas em Bacias não Calibradas da Amazônia Peruana

Abstract